Global Economic and Market Briefing — 2026-06-30
Global markets are reeling from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, while the Korean stock market is showing signs of recovery after a sharp correction. Inflation in Korea has exceeded 3% for two consecutive months, and new measures to freeze accounts suspected of novel phishing crimes go into effect today.
Global Economic and Market Briefing — 2026-06-30
Market Overview
Major US Indices
- S&P 500: Closed at 7,354 points on June 26, 2026, down 0.05% from the previous trading day.
- US Dollar: Remains near a 13-month high.
Korean Stock Market
- KOSPI: Opened higher at the 8,400 level on June 30 and entered the 8,500 range in early trading.
- Exchange Rate: USD/KRW bid at 1,542.06 and ask at 1,542.20 (Average June rate of 1,525 marks a 28-year high since the 1998 Asian financial crisis).
Domestic Economic News
Korea's Inflation Surpasses 3% for Two Consecutive Months As of June 28, Korea's inflation rate has exceeded 3%, remaining above the Bank of Korea's 2% target for the second straight month. The National Statistical Office is scheduled to release the 'Consumer Price Trends for June' on July 2.
Four Key Variables for the Second-Half Bond Market Experts highlight upward pressure on interest rates in Q3 but suggest potential stability by the year's end. 3-year Treasury bonds are expected to range from 3.15% to 4.50%, and 10-year bonds from 2.95% to 4.81%.
Gold Prices Reclaim $4,000 Level After PCE Release Gold prices recovered to the $4,000 level following the release of the US PCE price index, though gains remain limited due to Federal Reserve tightening concerns.
Global Economy & Markets
All Nine Major US Investment Banks Abandon Rate Cut Forecasts for the Year As of 3:00 AM local time on June 30, major US investment banks have abandoned their forecasts for interest rate cuts this year, shifting their focus toward a freeze or further hikes. According to the Bank of Korea's New York office, persistent inflationary pressure is the core driver of this shift.
Richmond Fed President: "Inflation Over 4%, Further Tightening Essential" Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, pointed out that inflation has already surpassed 4% and argued that reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target is impossible without further tightening.
Fed Hawkishness Reaffirmed: Bond Yields Rise and Dollar Stays Strong US Treasury yields have rebounded slightly despite rising international oil prices, while the US dollar continues to hover near a 13-month high, supported by robust US economic growth and signs of intensified tightening.
Stock Market Trends
KOSPI Suffers Volatility Throughout June Last week, the KOSPI closed at 8,411.21, down 641.21 points (7.08%) from the previous week's close of 9,052.42. On June 25, the VKOSPI (KOSPI 200 Volatility Index) hit an all-time high of 95.09.
KOSDAQ Jumps 8% on Policy Expectations Ahead of 30th Anniversary Ahead of its 30th anniversary on July 1, the KOSDAQ surged 8% recently on expectations of market restructuring, such as the introduction of a promotion/relegation system. The government is expected to unveil relevant policies at the 30th-anniversary ceremony on July 1.
Persistent Trust Issues with KOSDAQ Disclosures A "lack of trust" in disclosures—where companies report positive news first and delay bad news—continues to plague the KOSDAQ. Cases are recurring where stock prices rise following disclosures of supply contracts or fundraising plans, only for the company to retract or change its story later.
July Semiconductor Earnings as a Market Turning Point The release of Q2 earnings for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is expected to determine the direction of the stock market in July. Following strong results from Micron, the market is closely watching the performance of these two companies.
AML & Financial Regulation
Korea Implements Immediate Transaction Freezes for Suspected Novel Phishing Accounts as of June 30 Financial authorities have decided to include accounts used in novel phishing crimes, such as "no-show fraud," in the scope of rapid transaction freezes, alongside voice phishing. Suspicious phishing accounts will be temporarily frozen for 7 business days, with the potential for an extension of up to 60 business days if necessary.
FATF Warns of Terrorist Financing via Social Media The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has warned that terrorist organizations are increasingly abusing social media platforms to finance their operations.
Australia Expands AML Regulations to Lawyers and Accountants Starting July 1 Australia's Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing (AML/CTF) framework has been expanded, bringing specific services provided by professionals like lawyers and accountants under regulation starting July 1.
Korea Advocates for Stronger Crypto Travel Rule at FATF Meeting The Korea Financial Intelligence Unit (KoFIU) emphasized the need to strengthen international cooperation on cross-border anti-money laundering (AML) for virtual assets during an FATF meeting. Plans are underway to expand the Travel Rule for small-sum transactions through amendments to the Act on Reporting and Using Specified Financial Transaction Information.
Key Dates
- July 1: KOSDAQ 30th Anniversary Ceremony — Market restructuring plans, including a promotion/relegation system, expected to be revealed.
- July 2: Korea National Statistical Office to release 'June Consumer Price Trends'.
- July 3: US Independence Day observed (NYSE closed).
- Q2 Earnings Releases for Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix: Scheduled for July — A key factor in determining the direction of the Korean stock market.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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