글로벌 경제·증시·AML 브리핑 — 2026-09-13

시장 현황

As of Friday, September 11, U.S. stock markets rebounded thanks to falling oil prices and a CPI reading that met expectations, though they still finished the week in negative territory.

• Dow Jones: 52,573.29 (+0.98%)
• S&P 500: 7,656.98 (+0.86%)
• Nasdaq: 26,333.035 (+0.96%)
• Russell 2000: 2,903 (+0.45%)

In contrast, South Korean markets faced a sharp correction driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields and heavy foreign selling.

• KOSPI: 6,909.91 (-1.7%, dropping below the 7,000 mark)
• KOSDAQ: 820.64 (-1.9%)

국내 경제 뉴스

1. Korea hits #1 in OECD leading indicator for the first time in 75 months In August, South Korea's OECD leading economic indicator climbed to 102.87, securing the top spot globally for the first time in 75 months. However, the month-over-month growth slowed for the fifth straight month.

2. Triple high fears resurface as U.S. Treasuries threaten the 5% threshold With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovering near 5%, South Korea is feeling simultaneous pressure from high interest rates, inflation, and soaring exchange rates. Domestic 3-year government bond yields have surpassed 4% for the first time in three years, while the won-dollar exchange rate sits in the 1,340-won range.

3. Ministry of Economy and Finance flags Middle East and tariff risks despite export boom While the Ministry of Economy and Finance noted a solid economic recovery fueled by a 68.7% surge in exports, it warned that geopolitical instability in the Middle East and U.S. tariff policies could pose downside risks.

글로벌 경제·시장

1. Fed rate hike odds for September surge past 86% Following a core Consumer Price Index (CPI) print that beat expectations, expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve have strengthened. Financial markets are pricing in an 86.3% or higher probability of a rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting.

2. U.S. consumer sentiment drops to second-lowest level on record as rate hike bets hit 89% The University of Michigan's consumer survey revealed that U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to its second-lowest level ever. Indices tracking personal finances and business conditions plunged, with respondents putting the probability of a rate hike at 89%.

3. Bank of Russia holds benchmark interest rate steady at 14% During its board meeting on September 11, the Bank of Russia decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 14%, citing ongoing inflationary pressures and geopolitical conditions.

주식 시장 동향

1. KOSPI slips back below 7,000, with shipbuilders standing out On September 11, the KOSPI closed down 124.01 points (1.7%) at 6,909.91, sliding back under the 7,000 threshold. Overnight Wall Street losses and oil market volatility weighed on the market, though shipbuilding stocks showed relative resilience amid the downturn.

2. Foreign investors keep up heavy net selling Rising U.S. Treasury yields and unstable international oil prices triggered sustained foreign capital outflows from the domestic stock market, pulling down both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices.

3. NH Investment & Securities sets weekly KOSPI band at 6,400–7,400 Despite interest rate volatility, NH Investment & Securities believes the AI-driven growth narrative remains intact, setting this week's expected KOSPI trading range between 6,400 and 7,400.

AML·금융규제

1. UK FCA to launch AML supervision for professional services by 2028 The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced plans to roll out full-scale anti-money laundering (AML) supervision for professional services sectors, including accountants and lawyers, by the end of 2028.

2. Philippines AMLC ramps up enforcement ahead of 2027 FATF evaluation The Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) of the Philippines is significantly stepping up crackdowns on domestic financial crimes in preparation for the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) mutual evaluation scheduled for 2027.

3. Study shows public blockchains can comply with AML rules A new research finding suggests that financial institutions can comply with AML and counter-terrorist financing (CFT) regulations even when utilizing public or permissionless blockchains—challenging the notion that permissioned networks are mandatory.

주목 사항

1. U.S. FOMC Meeting (September 15–16) This week's biggest event kicks off on Tuesday, September 15, as the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day meeting. The final rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, September 16, and the outcome could trigger massive volatility across global stock markets.

2. Confirmation hearing for nominee for Deputy Prime Minister for Economy and introduction of after-market trading in Korea The South Korean government is holding confirmation hearings for the nominee for Deputy Prime Minister for Economy while simultaneously introducing after-market trading systems. Observers should keep a close eye on policy uncertainty resolution and capital market structural changes.

3. U.S. August retail sales data release Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the U.S. retail sales report for August will be released. The market anticipates a 0.7% rebound, and the health of consumer spending will likely influence the Fed's future rate path.