Global Economic, Market, and AML Briefing — Aug 2, 2026

Market Overview

US Major Indices (Closing prices on 2026-07-31)

• S&P 500: 7,489.72 (+0.70% daily, -0.1% monthly for July)
• Nasdaq: 25,373 (+1.00% daily, -3.2% monthly for July)
• Dow Jones: 52,485 (+0.53% daily, +0.3% monthly for July)

Domestic Economic News

July CPI expected to fall below 3% — A variable for the BOK's August rate decision

With July’s consumer price index (CPI), due for release next week, expected to dip below 3%, the Bank of Korea's (BOK) potential for an additional base rate hike in August has become a key variable. Having raised rates in July, the BOK is expected to weigh further hikes based on inflation trends.

BOK sets neutral rate upper bound at 3.3% — Upward pressure on potential growth

The Bank of Korea has set the upper bound of its neutral interest rate at 3.3%, forecasting that semiconductor-led economic growth could boost potential growth rates. This reflects a policy stance adjusted for an era of rising interest rates.

Global Economy & Markets

Fed holds rates in July — Deepening division as three officials vote for a hike

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range during its July 2026 meeting. Among the nine voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), three advocated for a hike, signaling the possibility of further action in September. Markets are interpreting this as a sign of persistent inflation concerns.

US Q2 GDP growth at 1.5% — Inflation remains above the Fed's target

US GDP growth for the second quarter stood at just 1.5%. While consumption remains robust, inflation continues to exceed the Fed’s 2% target, which served as the backdrop for the decision to hold rates.

Stock Market Trends

S&P 500 and Nasdaq record monthly drops — Amazon surge leads final day of July

On the last trading day of July, tech stocks including Amazon surged, pushing the S&P 500 up by 0.70%. However, for the month of July, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq dropped 3.2%, while the Dow was the only index to record a fourth consecutive month of gains. Concerns over inflation driven by rising oil prices persist.

AML & Financial Regulation

FinCEN Director signals a new era of BSA/AML regulation in congressional testimony

On July 21, 2026, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) Director Andrea Gacki testified before a subcommittee of the US House Financial Services Committee, outlining a new direction for Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. Financial institutions are now expected to strengthen their regulatory compliance.

UK Gambling Commission releases updated money laundering risk assessment

The UK Gambling Commission released an updated assessment of financial crime risks across the UK gambling industry, effective as of July 31, 2026. As part of efforts to tighten AML regulations, oversight of high-risk sectors is being increased.

FATF calls for strengthened AML regulations for crypto and DeFi

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) pointed out in a report released at the end of July that Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) are failing to meet AML standards. Only 13 out of 139 jurisdictions meet the FATF’s preventive AML standards, and the organization emphasized that addressing the oversight gap in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector is urgent.

Key Notes

Major Economic Schedule for August

• Korea: July Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released (next week)
• Korea: BOK base rate decision for August
• US: July employment statistics and unemployment rate to be released
• US: Next FOMC meeting (September)

The release of Korea's July inflation data and the US July employment statistics is expected to dictate the policy direction for the central banks of both nations next month.