글로벌 경제·증시·AML 브리핑 — 2026-09-22

Market Status

• S&P 500 (US500): Closed at 7,651 points on September 18, 2026, up 0.17% from the previous day. Over the past month, the index declined by 0.75%.
• NASDAQ: Reached an all-time high driven by a surge in Meta shares (11.43%), with M7 stocks rising together.
• KOSPI: Finished a volatile trading week — closed at 6,894.23 on September 18, recovering most of its early-week losses fueled by a surge in AI semiconductor stocks and returning foreign buyers.
• KOSPI/KOSDAQ Defense Phase: While large-cap stocks remained quiet during the defense of the KOSPI 7,000 level, six KOSDAQ stocks including Nota and WSI hit the daily upper limit.

※ Exact closing figures for the Dow Jones and KOSDAQ indices were unavailable in this period's reports.

Domestic Economic News

• Korean Economy at a Turning Point Next Week: Key releases are lined up, including the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) revised growth outlook for South Korea, the Bank of Korea's (BOK) Financial Stability Report, and the Consumer Sentiment Index. Focus will be on assessing financial market risks such as household debt, the housing market, and leveraged investing.

• BOK Maintains Upward Revision for Growth: The BOK raised its annual economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.3% (a 0.7 percentage point increase) while keeping its consumer inflation outlook at 2.7% (announced in August, valid as of the current standard).

Global Economy & Markets

• BofA Warns of "Fed Rates Above 5%": In a report released on the 19th local time, Bank of America (BofA) warned markets to prepare for the risk of the Federal Reserve raising benchmark interest rates above 5%. Strategists including Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber pointed to 2022–2023 as a reference point.

• Fed Officials Divided on Rate Path: Fed officials showed divergent views regarding the pace of rate hikes for 2026 and 2027, highlighting differences in stance within the September dot plot.

• Kashkari Reaffirms Goal to Lower Inflation to 2%: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated on the 20th local time — as the Fed embarked on a rate hike for the first time in 3 years and 2 months — that inflation remains very severe and must be brought down to the 2% target.

Stock Market Trends

• Potential KOSDAQ Post-Chuseok Rally: According to a SK Securities report, KOSDAQ has outperformed KOSPI in the Chuseok-to-year-end period only five times since 2005, with common factors being a lack of large-cap stocks, leading themes, and foreign/institutional supply and demand. This year's trajectory could differ due to semiconductor equipment, robotics themes, and policy benefits.

• KOSPI Index Hinting at Post-Chuseok Recovery Led by Semiconductors: The post-Chuseok rise in KOSPI is analyzed to be linked with semiconductor stocks, with US PCE inflation data and Micron's earnings expected to dictate market direction after the holiday.

• Meta Stock Surge and Aftermath: Meta's "Muse" frenzy sent shares up 11.43% in a single day, adding $192 billion in market cap, while AMD became the fourth US semiconductor stock to surpass a $1 trillion market cap.

• KOSDAQ Volatility: Six stocks in the KOSDAQ market, including Nota and WSI, hit daily price limits, whereas no extreme volatility stocks emerged in the KOSPI market.

1 sources

chosun.com

[주간경제지표] 2026년 9월 18일자

AML & Financial Regulation

• Alleged $6.9B Money Laundering by Russia: According to British media reports, Russia, facing Western financial sanctions, allegedly utilized fintech firm A7 to launder up to $6.9 billion, reportedly funding military supplies.

• Government Continues Implementation of 5 Major AML Strategies: The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) under the Financial Services Commission has established 5 core strategies and 12 implementation tasks in preparation for the FATF 5th Mutual Evaluation scheduled for 2028. Key efforts include building a management system for the beneficial owners of corporations and trusts, expanding AML obligations for non-financial professionals (lawyers, accountants), and strengthening AI-based suspicious transaction analysis and virtual asset tracking.

• EU and CySEC 2026 AML Regulatory Updates: SALVUS Funds summarized the latest AML/CFT compliance updates, including EU AML regulations for 2026 and CySEC circulars, to assist financial institutions in compliance.

• FATF Travel Rule Guide Update: InvestGlass updated its FATF Travel Rule implementation guide targeting financial institutions, VASPs, and virtual asset service providers (published 2 days ago).

Key Takeaways

• US PCE and Micron Earnings: The direction of the domestic stock market after the Chuseok holiday will likely hinge on US PCE inflation data and Micron's earnings.
• Upcoming Korean Economic Data Releases: Schedules for the ADB's revised growth outlook for South Korea, the BOK's Financial Stability Report, and the Consumer Sentiment Index have been announced for next week.
• FATF 5th Mutual Evaluation: Cross-governmental implementation of the 5 major AML strategies and 12 tasks continues in preparation for the evaluation slated for 2028.