Global Economic and Market Update — June 29, 2026
The exchange rate has hit a 28-year high, fueling economic anxiety as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and the Korean stock market faces extreme fluctuations. Meanwhile, international regulators are intensifying their focus on terror financing and crypto AML.
Market Overview
KOSPI & KOSDAQ Performance
- Last week (June 22–26), the KOSPI closed at 8,411.21, down 641.21 points (7.08%) from the previous week's 9,052.42. The average intraday volatility reached 5.02%, exceeding levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the dot-com bubble collapse. On June 25, the KOSPI 200 Volatility Index (VKOSPI) hit a record high of 95.09.
Won-Dollar Exchange Rate
- The average exchange rate in June reached 1,525 won, marking a 28-year high since the 1998 Asian financial crisis and significantly surpassing the average rate recorded during the March 2009 global financial crisis.
Domestic Economic News
Inflation continues, expected to top 3% for two consecutive months Domestic consumer prices are expected to maintain an upward trend. The market projects inflation to exceed 3% in the June Consumer Price Index report set for release on July 2, and the OECD’s economic analysis report is also drawing attention.
KOSDAQ faces headwinds ahead of 30th anniversary As the KOSDAQ market approaches its 30th anniversary on July 1, it is experiencing a sluggish trend, with expectations for a rebound fueled by upcoming government market revitalization policies.
Global Economy & Markets
Fed signals potential 2026 rate hike due to hawkish inflation outlook The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the base interest rate at 3.50–3.75% during its June meeting, but raised its inflation forecast and signaled at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026. This is being interpreted as a sign of intensified tightening, contrary to the outlook from March.
U.S. PCE inflation hits 4.1%, a 3-year high The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, surged to 4.1%, its highest level in three years. This has dampened market expectations for rate cuts and added weight to the prospect of further rate hikes this year.
Rate path reassessment: July 2 U.S. jobs and wage data are key With the U.S. labor and wage data scheduled for release on July 2, the week ahead (June 30 – July 3) will be critical as global stock markets weigh the Fed's future rate path.
Stock Market Trends
Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix earnings: Key variables for July The KOSPI experienced extreme volatility in June, plunging nearly 1,000 points from the 9,400 level, as heavy concentration in semiconductor stocks triggered the sell-off. July marks the Q2 earnings season for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and the index's direction will likely depend on their profitability.
Retail investors net-bought 25 trillion won, while institutions and foreigners offloaded Amid extreme volatility in semiconductor-heavy stocks, retail investors net-bought approximately 25 trillion won over the past week, while institutional and foreign investors net-sold over 20 trillion won.
July earnings season expected to bring stability Brokerages anticipate that the KOSPI, which saw intense volatility throughout June, will likely exhibit a more stable trend in July as the earnings season begins.
AML & Financial Regulation
FATF warns of terrorist financing via social media The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has warned that terrorist organizations are increasingly exploiting social media to raise funds, signaling a need for stricter oversight from financial regulators.
UAE imposes 20 million AED fine on foreign bank branch UAE financial regulators have issued a 20 million AED (approx. 5.5 million USD) fine to a foreign bank branch for violating anti-money laundering (AML) regulations.
Financial crime AI startup Quantifind secures $200 million Quantifind has raised $200 million in funding. The company is opening a new chapter in financial crime detection with its "agentic middleware" technology, which allows AI agents to directly execute AML and KYC workflows.
Key Dates
- July 2: Release of U.S. employment and wage data — A turning point for re-evaluating the Fed's rate path.
- July: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Q2 earnings season — Key factor for KOSPI direction.
- July 1: 30th anniversary of KOSDAQ — Government market revitalization policies expected to launch.
Note: This briefing includes only the latest information released after 2026-06-28, and all figures and events are cited directly from the specified sources.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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