Industrial & Raw Material Supply Chain Daily Briefing — 2026-05-23

1. Commodities Market Trends

• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): As the Iran war prolongs, energy prices face continued upward pressure, leading Indian state-owned retailers to hike fuel prices for the third time this year. Meanwhile, North Dakota oil producers remain cautious regarding new drilling despite the price surge.

• Natural Gas / LNG: Turkish state-owned energy company BOTAS has signed a natural gas/LNG cooperation agreement with Edison of Italy. This move is seen as an acceleration of efforts to diversify LNG supply routes following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore): Copper is emerging as the biggest winner among industrial metals due to the surge in AI data center demand. Kunal Shah, VP at Nirmal Bang Securities, analyzed that "copper stands to be the biggest beneficiary as AI demand and supply risks intersect," adding that while U.S.-Iran negotiation prospects weigh on oil prices, a stronger rupee is also expected.

• Battery Metals (Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt): High electronics prices caused by memory chip shortages are indirectly impacting demand for battery metals. Uncertainty in core raw material markets persists as AI infrastructure expansion needs conflict with delays in expanding semiconductor production capacity.

2. Supply Chain Issues

• DHL European Battery Logistics Hub Groundbreaking (2026-05-21): DHL Supply Chain held a groundbreaking ceremony for a 17,000-square-meter logistics hub dedicated to high-voltage batteries in Holtum, Netherlands. It will be linked to nearby existing automotive parts logistics facilities and is expected to become a key hub for the European EV battery supply chain.

• India’s Growing Reliance on Chinese Supply Chains: It is reported that Reliance has abandoned plans for domestic battery production, shifting toward sourcing components from CATL. This is fueling geopolitical concerns that India's renewable energy goals may become structurally dependent on the Chinese battery supply chain.

• Fire at Russia’s Novorossiysk Oil Terminal: A fire broke out at an oil terminal in the port of Novorossiysk, Russia, after falling drone debris. Geopolitical risks surrounding Black Sea energy export routes are being highlighted once again.

• Coal Mine Explosion in Shanxi, China: An explosion at a coal mine in Shanxi, China, resulted in 8 deaths and 38 workers trapped. President Xi Jinping has ordered direct intervention for rescue operations, and attention is focused on potential disruptions to coal supply within China.

1 sources

group.dhl.com

group.dhl.com

3. Core Industry Trends

Semiconductors

• Industry experts warn that the combination of surging demand for AI infrastructure and delayed capacity expansion could keep electronics prices elevated through 2027.

• The IAEA reported a fire at an electrical substation caused by military activity, raising concerns about the stability of power supplies for semiconductor and advanced manufacturing facilities.

1 sources

domain-b.com

domain-b.com

Secondary Batteries & EVs

• According to the latest research from Nature Energy on the U.S. EV battery supply chain, even with concurrent strategies for domestic production expansion and demand management, it will be insufficient to meet 2035 demand, concluding that international procurement strategies must be pursued in parallel.

• A follow-up paper from the same research series analyzed that domestic production expansion alone is insufficient to bridge the material supply gap in the U.S. EV battery supply chain, noting that even if all announced projects are realized, they will barely meet 2035 demand.

Automotive, Shipbuilding, & Steel

• The Hungarian energy company MOL has received approval from U.S. authorities to continue negotiations for the acquisition of Serbia’s NIS until June 6. The potential reorganization of Eastern European energy and oil infrastructure is drawing attention.

• The Argentine government announced it would gradually phase out taxes on certain industrial exports, which is expected to boost the price competitiveness of manufacturing exports like automobiles and steel.

4. Key Corporate News

• DHL Supply Chain: Groundbreaking for the European battery logistics hub in Holtum, Netherlands, on May 21, 2026. A 17,000-square-meter storage and service facility dedicated to high-voltage batteries, operating in connection with existing automotive logistics facilities.

• Reliance: India’s largest private company has scrapped plans for domestic battery production, opting for a strategy to source battery components from CATL of China. Concerns have been raised regarding structural dependency of India’s clean energy supply chain on China.

• Turkey’s BOTAS – Italy’s Edison: Both companies signed a natural gas/LNG cooperation agreement. Interpreted as part of LNG diversification following the Hormuz blockade and a signal for the realignment of Mediterranean and Middle Eastern gas supply chains.

• MOL: Hungarian energy firm MOL received U.S. approval to continue talks regarding the acquisition of Serbia’s NIS until June 6, 2026. M&A completion is expected to change the landscape of Eastern European energy infrastructure.

1 sources

group.dhl.com

group.dhl.com

5. Insight of the Day

The impact of the Iran war on global commodities and supply chains is spreading across multiple layers beyond simple energy price hikes. The third fuel price hike in India, the fire at Russia’s Novorossiysk terminal, and the IAEA’s report of a substation fire related to military activity show that geopolitical risks to energy infrastructure are simultaneously materializing. The LNG cooperation agreement between BOTAS and Edison highlights how rapidly the diversification of energy routes is proceeding amidst such unstable supply environments.

Structural fractures are also deepening in the battery and EV supply chain. Reliance’s shift toward CATL dependence suggests that in the actual market, reliance on Chinese supply chains is intensifying, contrary to the "de-risking" declarations made by various countries. Conversely, DHL’s groundbreaking of its European battery logistics hub signifies the visible movement toward Western-led reorganization of battery supply chain logistics. It is also worth noting that copper is emerging as a key metal benefiting from the two megatrends of AI data center expansion and accelerated electrification.

6. What to Watch Next

• MOL-NIS Acquisition Progress: With the negotiation deadline set for June 6, monitor the progress and terms of the deal, as they could reshape the Eastern European energy supply chain.

• China’s Shanxi Mine Recovery: Monitor the results of the rescue operations for the 38 trapped workers and the scale of potential coal production disruptions in the region, which could influence global energy prices.

• India’s Fuel Prices & Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Watch for potential further adjustments in Indian retail fuel prices and any progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which could lead to a decline in crude oil prices.

7. Reader Action Items

1. Review Energy Procurement Contracts: Energy supply risks are materializing simultaneously, including India's third fuel price hike and the incident at the Novorossiysk terminal. Procurement managers in energy-intensive industries should immediately review price-linkage clauses in long-term supply contracts and identify alternative suppliers.

2. Establish Battery Supply Chain Diversification: As seen in the Reliance-CATL case, "non-China" supply chain efforts often remain at the level of declarations. Use the DHL battery hub development as a prompt to preemptively establish cooperative ties with European and Korean supply chains for mid-to-long-term risk management.

3. Prioritize Copper Procurement Strategy: The dual demand factors of AI data center expansion and accelerated electrification are likely to keep upward pressure on copper prices. Procurement teams in the electrical equipment and mobility manufacturing sectors should consider long-term purchase contracts or hedging strategies to secure cost stability.

Source Principle: All figures, company names, and contract details in this briefing are cited exclusively from the original text provided above. No information outside of the research findings is included.