Industry and Raw Material Supply Chain Daily Briefing — 2026-07-04

1. Commodity Market Trends

• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): WTI at $68.78 (+0.13%) and Brent at $71.94 (-0.25%). Prices remain relatively flat as progress in US-Iran peace talks raises hopes for stabilized supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Copper: Holding strong at $6.17/lb (+0.93%). Prices continue to rise due to eased supply concerns following the US-Iran talks and expectations of shifts in US tariff policy.

• Natural Gas & Refined Oil: Henry Hub natural gas rose to $3.25 (+1.53%), and heating oil climbed to $3.26 (+2.34%). China is lowering domestic retail fuel prices to pre-war levels starting July 4, following the drop in international oil prices.

• Precious Metals: Gold at $4,174.60 (+1.51%), silver at $62.40 (+2.90%), and platinum at $1,662.10 (+2.81%). Prices are strengthening as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes weaken.

2 sources

investingnews.com

investingnews.com

investingnews.com

investingnews.com

2. Supply Chain Issues

• EV Battery and Wiring Shortages: Mercedes-Benz has temporarily suspended production of the electric GLC at its Bremen plant. Reports indicate the primary cause is a shortage of critical battery and wiring components.

• Persistent Semiconductor Constraints: Automotive and industrial procurement teams globally are facing continued bottlenecks and price volatility. Lead time uncertainty and allocation issues continue to deteriorate.

• Global EV Battery Vulnerability: The interconnectivity of the cobalt supply chain is higher than anticipated, meaning a disruption at a single point could trigger a ripple effect across multiple countries and industries.

3. Core Industry Trends

Secondary Batteries & EVs

• China Tightens Regulations on Large EV Batteries: Chinese state media has redefined large-capacity batteries as a policy priority, which is interpreted as an attempt to reduce the fiscal burden of incentives and strengthen control over strategic resources and pricing.

• Global Lightweight Automotive Battery Market Expansion: Projected to grow by 7–9% annually from 2026 to 2035, with lithium-ion batteries maintaining dominance and regional production shifts underway.

Automotive, Shipbuilding, & Steel

• 5 Key Factors for EV Supply Chain Resilience: Incoterms, semiconductor visibility, tariff monitoring, transport routes, and supplier relationships are the key differentiators between vulnerability and resilience in EV supply chains.

• Asia-Pacific Automotive Electrification Market: Projected to reach $143.5 billion by 2035, with growth accelerated by EV adoption and replacement cycles.

4. Corporate News

There have been no new corporate contracts or major supply chain agreements reported within the last 24 hours. Relevant reports are only available in historical data (February–June).

5. Insight of the Day

Progress in US-Iran peace talks is easing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, providing signs of stability in global energy and mineral markets. As concerns over the Strait of Hormuz subside, WTI and Brent crude prices are softening, a trend reflected in China’s immediate cut to retail fuel prices. Meanwhile, copper prices remain technically strong due to recovering demand for semiconductors and energy infrastructure.

However, a contradiction is emerging as the automotive industry’s supply chain crisis worsens. The production halt at Mercedes-Benz highlights the real-world impact of battery and wiring shortages, while vulnerabilities in key materials like semiconductors and cobalt remain unresolved. China’s stricter regulations on large-capacity batteries signal a major supply chain restructuring that points toward future geopolitical shifts in battery sourcing.

6. What to Watch Next

• US Labor Statistics Release: Monitor if weak employment data further weakens Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and fuels a continued rise in precious metals.

• Normalization of the Strait of Hormuz: Potential for crude oil price adjustments upon the announcement of US-Iran peace deal results.

• Automaker Supply Chain Visibility Updates: Expect announcements from other OEMs regarding the scope of battery and semiconductor shortages following the Mercedes-Benz incident.

7. Reader Action Items

• Energy/Mineral Importers: Establish logistics cost-saving plans based on the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz and re-evaluate the purchase of Iranian crude oil.

• Automotive/Parts Manufacturers: Use the Mercedes-Benz GLC production suspension as a case study to strengthen multi-sourcing strategies for batteries and wiring.

• Secondary Battery Investors: Analyze the impact of China's new large-capacity battery regulations on battery pack pricing and supply/demand, and consider portfolio adjustments.

Source Policy: All figures, company names, and contract details in this briefing are cited exclusively from the source text mentioned above. No information outside of the findings has been included.