Daily Briefing: 핵심 산업 및 원자재 공급망 뉴스

1. Commodities Market Trends

• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): As of May 18, oil prices saw limited fluctuation amid Middle East instability and ongoing negotiations involving Iran. Fortune reports that energy prices are expected to surge 24% annually, with the World Bank labeling this the highest level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• Natural Gas / LNG: Cornwall Insight forecasts a 13% hike in the UK’s energy price cap starting in July. Meanwhile, the Italian government has decided to extend a fuel tax cut set to expire this week.

• Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore): SHFE copper futures rose 1.01% compared to the previous day, with SHFE aluminum up 0.86%. SHFE nickel also maintained upward pressure, rising 0.86%. Driven by AI infrastructure expansion, clean energy demand, and supply disruptions, copper remains near record highs.

• Battery Metals (Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt): Lithium carbonate futures spiked over 3%. China’s move to halt sulfuric acid exports has raised concerns over supply bottlenecks for materials essential to lithium battery production, impacting both EV battery and fertilizer supply chains.

2 sources

sbs.com.au

sbs.com.au

assets.sbs.com.au

assets.sbs.com.au

2. Supply Chain Issues

• China’s Sulfuric Acid Export Ban: The total ban on sulfuric acid exports by China is expected to hit both EV battery manufacturing and fertilizer supply chains. As a critical material for production processes (including LFP batteries) and agricultural fertilizers, a prolonged supply gap could disrupt global EV production schedules.

• Interlinked AI/Energy Supply Chain Shocks: A Forbes analysis on May 18 highlights that the 2026 AI computing crisis and the energy shocks from the Iran conflict are two sides of the same supply chain coin. Energy shortages drive up costs for semiconductor manufacturing, which in turn limits the pace of AI infrastructure deployment.

• Stronger South Korea-Japan Energy Ties: According to Reuters, South Korea and Japan agreed on May 19, 2026, to bolster energy cooperation and security bonds. This joint response amid Middle East energy instability may signal a shift toward diversifying LNG supply chains in Northeast Asia.

3. Core Industry Trends

Semiconductors

• The combination of surging AI computing demand and the Middle East energy crisis is placing mounting pressure on semiconductor supply chains. Forbes emphasizes that chip shortages reflect broader energy instability, with analysts closely watching the correlation between foundry utilization rates and energy costs.

• Efforts to reshape semiconductor supply chains are accelerating across both the private and public sectors. Companies are actively exploring production diversification and domestic fab construction, with energy security and semiconductor self-sufficiency becoming central themes of industrial policy.

Secondary Batteries & EVs

• Stellantis announced plans to manufacture a $17,500 small electric vehicle at its Pomigliano d'Arco plant by 2028. This strategy aims to strengthen price competitiveness and regain market share in Europe.

• While the impact of China's sulfuric acid export ban on the EV battery supply chain is becoming clear, the automotive industry continues to face high reliance on Chinese cell imports, alongside ongoing tariff and policy risks, even as companies ramp up US battery production.

Automotive, Shipbuilding, & Steel

• The announcement by Stellantis adds a new variable to the European EV market. A $17,500 price point signals a direct challenge to Chinese EVs and is expected to influence order competition within the European steel and components supply chain.

• The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index is rising back toward its COVID-19 peak. As the ripple effects of the energy crisis lead to higher manufacturing input costs and supply chain disruptions, energy-intensive industries like shipbuilding and steel are taking a direct hit.

1 sources

insurancejournal.com

insurancejournal.com

4. Corporate Moves

• Equinor: Norway’s Equinor signed a 5-year gas supply contract with Germany’s Eneco on May 19. This long-term deal aims to strengthen European energy security amid the Middle East crisis and aligns with Germany's strategy to reduce dependency on Russian gas.

• Stellantis: Announced on May 19 that it will produce a $17,500 small EV at the Pomigliano d'Arco plant by 2028. The move is a strategic effort to regain competitiveness against low-cost Chinese EVs, which will likely involve significant investment in localizing supply chains and parts.

• Italian Government: A government minister confirmed on May 19 that Italy will extend the fuel tax cut that was scheduled to expire this week. The policy decision is intended to protect consumers and maintain manufacturing competitiveness amidst rising energy prices.

5. Daily Insight

The disruption caused by China’s sulfuric acid export ban across EV batteries, fertilizers, and semiconductor processes reaffirms the deep interconnectedness of global supply chains. Coupled with the 3% jump in lithium carbonate prices, battery metal markets are already showing sensitivity. Meanwhile, the energy crisis and the explosion in AI computing demand are exacerbating semiconductor bottlenecks, cementing a structure where energy, materials, and digital infrastructure are inextricably linked.

Corporate and government-level supply chain restructuring is moving fast to adapt. Equinor’s 5-year gas contract, the Korea-Japan energy cooperation agreement, and Stellantis’s local low-cost EV production are all part of a broader trend to reduce energy risk and secure materials within domestic or friendly borders. However, if China moves to restrict more raw materials following sulfuric acid, short-term risk management remains essential as current diversification efforts will take considerable time to serve as an effective buffer.

6. What to Watch Next

• UK Energy Price Cap Hike (July): Monitor further announcements from UK energy regulators and relevant firms regarding the 13% increase projected by Cornwall Insight, which serves as a gauge for how energy costs affect manufacturing supply chains.

• Follow-up on China’s Sulfuric Acid Ban: Whether China proceeds with further export controls or negotiates limited resumption will be a decisive variable for the battery metal market. Watch lithium carbonate and nickel futures to gauge market sentiment.

• Korea-Japan Energy Cooperation: Keep an eye out for concrete execution plans from the Korea-Japan energy agreement. Future measures like joint LNG purchasing or hydrogen/ammonia supply chain cooperation could significantly reshape the energy landscape in Northeast Asia.

7. Reader Action Items

1. Check Alternative Sulfuric Acid Sources: As production delays are expected due to the Chinese export ban, EV battery procurement managers should initiate emergency supply talks with alternative sources in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, or Europe, and recalculate safety stock levels.

2. Review Energy Cost Hedging: Update energy cost scenarios for European production and logistics bases to reflect recent policy changes—such as the UK’s 13% price cap hike and Italy’s extended fuel tax cut—and revisit hedging instruments like futures and long-term contracts.

3. Seize Stellantis EV Supply Chain Opportunities: Suppliers of core components like battery cells, modules, lightweight materials, and inverters should explore potential integration into Stellantis's Italian supply chain and start early partnership discussions for the planned 2028 production.

Source Policy: All figures, company names, and contract details mentioned in this briefing are cited exclusively from the provided source. No information outside of the provided research is included.