Supply Chain and Raw Materials Daily Briefing — 2026-06-08

1. Commodities Market Trends

• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): WTI is at $94.29/barrel (+3.75, +4.14%) and Brent at $97.26 (+4.17, +4.48%). Prices continue to rise as Middle East supply disruptions caused by the Iran war persist for the fourth month.

• Copper: COMEX copper futures are at $6.25/lb (-0.01, -0.18%). Despite pressure to adjust following the record high of $6.7160 on May 13, Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecast for copper.

• Natural Gas (Henry Hub): Currently at $3.14/MMBtu (-0.09, -2.91%) as it undergoes a correction ahead of increased summer cooling demand.

• Nickel & Battery Metals: Nickel has entered a "super squeeze" phase in June, and battery metals are leading gains, with lithium carbonate rising over 3%.

1 sources

worldbank.org

worldbank.org

2. Supply Chain Issues

• Shipping Costs Surge — Peak Season Arrives Two Months Early: Spot shipping rates are rising at the fastest pace since June of last year, with the peak season starting two months earlier than expected. This is accompanied by shortages of transformers, inverters, and control equipment.

• Chinese E-commerce Exports Slow — Jet Fuel Costs and Demand Slump: Major online platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress are facing worsening profitability due to surging jet fuel costs linked to the Iran war and declining demand from low-income groups in developed nations.

• Iran Signals Tolls for Strait of Hormuz: The Russian ambassador to Iran stated that Iran and Oman will open the Strait of Hormuz under new conditions, including a transit toll, sparking concerns about further increases in global shipping costs.

3. Core Industry Trends

Oil & Gas

• Saudi Arabia Lowers July Asian Supply Prices for Second Consecutive Month: Saudi Arabia has cut its Official Selling Price (OSP) for July, reflecting sluggish demand even as spot premiums remain weak despite the US-Israel-Iran war.

• ENI and Petronas Form Southeast Asian Gas Joint Venture: Italy's ENI and Malaysia's Petronas have established a 50-50 joint venture named Searah to integrate their energy operations in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Secondary Batteries & Energy Storage

• CATL Targets 50% Revenue from Global Energy Storage by 2030: The Chinese battery manufacturer plans to expand its energy storage business to half of its global revenue and is strengthening supply chain control by mining lithium directly in southern China.

• Q1 2026 Global Energy Storage Shipments Up 79%: The global energy storage market grew by 79% year-on-year in Q1 2026, with surging AI demand accelerating the deployment of Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES).

4. Corporate Moves

• Indonesian Government Imposes Centralized Control on Coal, Palm Oil, and Ferroalloy Exports: The Indonesian Ministry of Trade has announced new technical regulations placing the export of these commodities under the control of a state-owned central agency.

• Chinese Refineries Delay Projects Due to Middle East Supply Disruptions: Two Chinese refining companies have postponed projects scheduled for operation this year due to oil supply issues linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

• Australian Union Raises Safety Concerns with Japan's Inpex: The Offshore Alliance union has filed a complaint with Australia’s offshore energy regulator, alleging that Japan's Inpex used unskilled workers to operate critical equipment at its Ichthys LNG facility.

5. Daily Insights

The Iran war, now in its fourth month, continues to inflict severe pressure on global raw material and shipping networks. While WTI crude remains in the $94 range, Saudi Arabia’s price cuts paradoxically signal weak underlying demand. Meanwhile, the early arrival of the shipping peak season suggests that rising jet fuel and energy costs are shrinking Chinese e-commerce exports and global container volume. Strong growth in battery and energy storage (up 79% in Q1) reflects decarbonization needs, but supply chain stress and shortages of transformers and controllers threaten to limit deployment speeds.

6. What to Watch Next

• Progress on Strait of Hormuz Toll Negotiations: The specifics of the toll policy proposed by Iran and Oman and the outcome of international negotiations will have an immediate impact on oil and shipping prices.

• Potential Additional Delays for Chinese Refinery Projects: Further announcements of project suspensions could trigger volatility in crude oil prices if Middle East supply disruptions intensify.

• Global PMI & Supply Chain Stress Index Releases: If June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data confirms weak demand, it could exert downward pressure on raw material and energy prices.

7. Reader Action Items

1. Renegotiate Shipping Rates Urgently: As container freight rates surge due to the early peak season, secure shipping space contracts for over three months and consider adding adjustment clauses to long-term purchasing agreements.

2. Diversify Middle East-Asia Energy Supply Chains: With rising oil price pressure and uncertainty caused by potential Strait of Hormuz tolls, consider diversifying LNG sources (e.g., Australia, Africa) and expanding strategic reserves.

3. Lock In Battery Material Futures Contracts: Since nickel and lithium prices are trending upward, look to fix costs via futures contracts for Q3–Q4 procurement, while remaining prepared for potential supply chain volatility.

Source Principle: All figures, company names, and contract details in this briefing are cited exclusively from the original text provided above.