Industrial and Raw Material Supply Chain Briefing — 2026-04-24
Brent crude is holding above $101 per barrel due to the Iran peace talks deadlock and El Niño warnings. While U.S. LNG exporters are filling the gap left by Qatar, concerns over sustainability remain. Eni has announced a significant expansion of its share buyback program, citing an improved outlook for raw materials.
Industrial and Raw Material Supply Chain Briefing — 2026-04-24
1. Commodities Market Trends
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Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): As of April 23, Brent crude is holding around the $101 per barrel mark. The lack of progress in peace talks with Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz remain the primary drivers of upward pressure.
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Natural Gas / LNG: U.S. LNG exporters are temporarily filling the global supply gap left by Qatar in the wake of the Iran conflict, though Reuters has raised questions regarding the sustainability of this replacement supply.
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Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore): Copper futures are showing a mix of moderate gains and slight declines from the May 2026 to August 2034 contracts, suggesting the market is searching for direction between long-term demand growth and supply constraints.
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Battery Metals (Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt): The shortage of Class 1 (battery-grade) nickel is intensifying. Alaska Energy Metals warned that global conflicts are placing structural stress on the battery-grade nickel supply chain, creating risks compounded by the surge in EV demand.
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Precious Metals: On the India MCX, gold fell by 1,000 rupees and silver plunged by 6,100 rupees. Rising oil prices and uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran peace talks have fueled concerns over high interest rates, weakening investor sentiment toward precious metals.
2. Supply Chain Issues
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Intensifying Battery-Grade Nickel Shortage: Amid growing global EV demand, the supply of Class 1 nickel, essential for batteries, is under threat due to global conflicts. Alaska Energy Metals emphasized that risks are exposed across the entire supply chain.
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China’s Global EV Export Push: China is accelerating strategies to export advanced vehicle technologies, from robotaxis to flying cars. This reflects both the harsh domestic economic reality and global market ambitions, signaling a reorganization of the global supply chain.
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Helium Supply Disruptions (Impact on Semiconductors/Automotive): As the Iran conflict deepens the helium shortage, red flags are being raised for semiconductor chip supply and automotive/EV production. Concerns regarding dealer inventory constraints have also been raised.
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Dual Shock: El Niño and Iran Conflict Threaten Global Crops: Forecasts of a strong El Niño are heightening concerns for global agricultural supply chains. Combined with the aftermath of the Iran conflict, the risk to food raw material supply has increased significantly.
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India Wheat Production Forecasts Missed: Due to rain and hail reducing yields, India's wheat production is expected to fall below forecasts.
3. Core Industry Trends
Semiconductors
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Omdia Lead Analyst Bruce Bateman warned that the semiconductor supply is under pressure due to a "perfect storm" of surging AI demand combined with physical and geopolitical constraints, adding that AI chips will remain in short supply throughout 2026.
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Rare earth shortages and surging automotive demand are further straining the semiconductor supply chain. Toyota suspended global orders for some hybrid SUVs in early March 2026, citing component shortages.
Secondary Batteries & EVs
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In 2026, leading battery manufacturers began launching solid-state battery products specialized for "Embodied Intelligence" applications like robotics. Industry analysis is converging on the view that solid-state batteries will be the "first commercialization battlefield" in this sector.
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In conjunction with Earth Day (April 22), CIBF2026 (International Battery Exhibition) signaled the gathering of the global battery industry to achieve carbon neutrality. The event is scheduled to be held in a few weeks.
Automotive, Shipbuilding, & Steel
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As seen in Toyota's suspension of global hybrid SUV orders, shortages in rare earths and semiconductor components are directly impacting automotive production.
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Indonesia’s Deputy Minister announced plans to import 150 million barrels of Russian crude oil this year. This may affect the energy procurement structure of adjacent industries such as shipbuilding and steel.
4. Corporate News
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Eni (Italy): Announced that it will nearly double its share buyback program to 2.8 billion euros, based on an improved outlook for raw materials.
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TotalEnergies: Decided to invest $1.2 billion in a power project in Kazakhstan.
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Yara (Fertilizer Group): Reported that quarterly profits exceeded market expectations, driven by strong nitrogen margins. Analysts suggest the company benefited from the rise in raw material prices.
5. Insight of the Day
The dual shock of a prolonged Iran conflict and simultaneous El Niño warnings is threatening both energy and food supply chains. Brent crude is holding above the $101 mark, and while U.S. LNG exporters are covering the gap from Qatar, the sustainability of this alternative supply is unclear. Combined with India's wheat production setbacks and El Niño alerts, there is a growing possibility that rising energy costs will pass through to overall food production and logistics expenses. Investments by TotalEnergies in Kazakhstan and Eni’s expanded share buybacks demonstrate that energy firms are leveraging the high-oil-price environment as an opportunity.
Regarding the battery supply chain, structural vulnerabilities are becoming evident as Class 1 nickel shortages, helium supply disruptions, and rare earth shortages simultaneously pressure semiconductor and EV production. In particular, as China’s acceleration of global EV exports meets the competition for solid-state battery commercialization, the race for battery supply chain dominance is intensifying. Procurement managers should immediately review inventory strategies and secure alternative sources for key inputs like nickel, helium, and rare earths.
6. What to Watch Next
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Monitoring El Niño Impacts: The forecast for a strong 2026/27 El Niño could further increase price volatility for agricultural products (wheat, soybeans, palm oil, etc.). Watch for announcements from relevant weather organizations and CBOT futures trends.
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U.S.-Iran Negotiation Trends: Progress or collapse in Iran peace talks will have an immediate impact on oil, LNG, and helium supply chains. Close monitoring of news related to these negotiations is necessary.
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CIBF2026 International Battery Exhibition: Scheduled for a few weeks from now, CIBF2026 is a key event that will offer direction for the entire secondary battery industry, including solid-state battery commercialization schedules, global battery supply chain strategies, and key metal procurement trends.
7. Reader Action Items
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Emergency Inventory Check for Nickel and Rare Earths: Shortages of Class 1 nickel and rare earths are intensifying simultaneously. Procurement managers for EV batteries and semiconductor parts should immediately review current inventory levels and alternative suppliers, considering long-term contracts or increasing allocations if necessary.
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Review Energy Cost Risk Hedging: With Brent crude stuck above $100 and LNG supply uncertainty continuing, companies operating energy-intensive production processes should review their energy cost hedging strategies and consider reducing exposure to short-term contracts.
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Proactive Response to Food and Agricultural Procurement: With India's wheat production setbacks and El Niño warnings, raw material costs for agricultural products like wheat, soybeans, and palm oil are likely to rise further. Purchasing managers in the food and beverage industry are advised to expedite futures hedging or early contract signings ahead of potential spot price surges.
Source Principle: All figures, company names, and contract details in this briefing are cited solely from the original text provided above. No information outside of the research findings has been included.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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