Industrial & Raw Material Supply Chain Briefing — 2026-06-03

1. Commodities Market Trends

• Oil (WTI/Brent): WTI rose 1.60% to $95.26 per barrel, while Brent increased 1.54% to $97.48. Prices have climbed for three consecutive days, driven by supply fears stemming from the resumed U.S.-Iran military conflict and deadlocked peace negotiations.

• Natural Gas: NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas fell 0.47% to $3.15.

• Industrial Metals (Copper/Aluminum): Citi analysts project copper prices will reach $14,500 per ton next month and $15,000 within the next year. AI infrastructure development and energy transitions are the primary demand drivers.

• Battery Metals: The IEA reported a record 108GW of global battery storage capacity added in 2025. The battery industry now requires measures to optimize production capacity and mitigate oversupply risks.

1 sources

fortune.com

Current price of oil as of June 1, 2026 | Fortune

2. Supply Chain Issues

• Australian LNG Export Delays: Labor strikes at the INPEX-operated Ichthys plant have delayed LNG tanker loading bound for Taiwan. The limited-scope strike has disrupted terminal operations.

• Return of Global Supply Chain Pressure: The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) has returned to 2022 levels. Surging input costs and disruptions from the Middle East Iran war are intensifying operational pressure on factories worldwide.

• Strengthening Singapore's Hub Role: Singapore is reinforcing its status as a global supply chain and logistics center through the expansion of the Tuas Mega Port, increased air cargo capacity, and digitalization initiatives. Semiconductors, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals are key beneficiary sectors.

1 sources

worldbank.org

worldbank.org

3. Core Industry Trends

Semiconductors

• Accelerating Restructuring: As the chip industry grows into a $1 trillion market in 2026, countries are pushing for localized supply chains. Chinese automakers are preparing to release models featuring 100% self-designed chips starting in 2026.

• China's Self-Sufficiency Goal: Production of automotive non-power discrete semiconductors in China currently sits at 5–10%, but the adoption of local chip designs is expected to accelerate starting in 2026.

Secondary Batteries & EVs

• U.S. Battery Independence: LGES is currently producing LFP batteries in the U.S., Samsung is set to begin U.S. production in 2026, and SK On is in discussions with automakers.

• Global EV Sales Pass 200,000: According to the IEA, global EV sales have exceeded 200,000 units, with one in four new vehicles being electric. However, the U.S. market is struggling due to the repeal of corporate tax credits, bans on Chinese software, and a preference for large SUVs.

4. Corporate Moves

• Vietnam Extends Anti-Dumping Duties on Thai Sugar: The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade has extended anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on certain Thai sugar products for an additional five years, until mid-2031.

• BlackRock Atlas Halts Brazilian Renewable Investment: Atlas Renewable Energy, the largest clean power generator in South America, has suspended plans for a $1 billion investment in Brazil due to the grid operator’s periodic refusal to accept renewable energy.

• Australia's BHP Develops Biofuel Blending: BHP and the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation in Singapore have conducted a trial voyage for a cargo ship using biofuel blends made from used cooking oil and animal fats.

5. Daily Insight

The three-day rally in oil prices, the strength of copper, and record-breaking battery storage capacity indicate that global energy and raw material supply chains are under complex pressure. In the short term, Middle East military conflicts are stoking energy supply anxiety. Long-term, demand for AI infrastructure and energy transition is pushing up prices for core materials like copper, battery metals, and natural gas.

Simultaneously, the Australian LNG strikes, the worsening GSCPI, and battery industry oversupply highlight logistical bottlenecks and structural overinvestment risks. The return of the GSCPI to 2022 levels is evidence that geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions are significantly increasing logistics costs and lead times. Proposals by the U.S. for additional tariffs (10–12.5%) related to forced labor are likely to further accelerate this trend.

6. What to Watch Next

• U.S. Forced Labor Tariffs: The Trump administration has proposed an additional 10–12.5% tariff on 60 economies, citing insufficient responses to forced labor. If implemented, this will raise import prices for these nations.

• Middle East Negotiation Progress: With U.S.-Iran peace talks deadlocked, any further military clashes could lead to extreme volatility in oil prices.

• Copper Futures and Industrial Metal Trading: Whether the market accepts Citi’s $15,000 per ton target will be a key indicator for determining the tightening of copper supply and demand.

7. Reader Action Items

1. Reassess Supply Chain Risks: With the GSCPI worsening to 2022 levels, recalculating procurement lead times and transport costs is essential. It is necessary to reflect price hikes when renewing long-term contracts for LNG, metals, and semiconductors.

2. Monitor Battery Industry Oversupply: As the Chinese government urges battery makers to optimize capacity, monitor your secondary battery suppliers for potential restructuring and supply disruptions.

3. Track U.S. Tariff Policies: Check whether your major suppliers are included in the list of 60 countries subject to potential forced labor tariffs. Establish plans for supplier diversification or a shift to local procurement if necessary.

Source Principle: All figures, company names, and contract details in this briefing are cited exclusively from the source text above. Only information released after 2026-06-01 is included.