Industry and Raw Material Supply Chain Daily Briefing — 2026-06-04

1. Commodity Market Trends

• Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): WTI $95.11 (-$0.91, -0.95%), Brent $96.83 (-$0.98, -1.00%) — Rising jet fuel costs persist due to the Middle East conflict.

• Industrial Metals (Copper/Aluminum): Copper spot prices are surging in the Chinese scrap metal market; on June 2, Bare Bright copper rose by CNY 1,850 per ton.

• Citi's Bullish Copper Outlook: Citi analysts predict copper prices will reach $14,500 per ton next month and hit $15,000 within a year.

• Precious Metals: Gold rose slightly to $4,447.40 per ounce (+0.24%), with physical investment demand expected to surpass jewelry demand for the first time this year.

2. Supply Chain Issues

• Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: Supply chain disruptions have returned to 2022 levels, with increasing risks from natural disasters, weather events, and piracy.

• EV Battery Supply Chain Realignment: CATL captured 40.1% of the global EV battery market from January to April 2026; seven Chinese companies now hold a 72.2% combined market share in the top 10.

• Automaker Supply Chain Strengthening: Automakers are strategically stockpiling vehicle inventory to prepare for raw material shortages caused by instability in the Middle East.

1 sources

cnevpost.com

cnevpost.com

3. Core Industry Trends

Semiconductors

The semiconductor industry is set to grow into a $1 trillion business by 2026, with a global supply chain restructuring currently underway.

Secondary Batteries & EVs

Global EV Battery Market Share (Jan–Apr 2026): CATL 40.1%, BYD 14.2%, and a 72.2% combined share for Chinese firms — reflecting declining market shares for South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. companies.

Battery Supply Diversification: As battery manufacturing expands and prices fall, developers are diversifying suppliers and implementing new deployment strategies.

Automotive, Shipbuilding, & Steel

China Wheat Quality Decline: Rainfall during the harvest season has reduced the quality of wheat in China, the world's top producer, by 7%, potentially leading to increased future wheat imports.

4. Corporate Moves

• Government of India: Expected to announce a policy for lithium and nickel processing incentives soon, with plans to provide support totaling approximately 3 billion rupees ($313.48 million).

5. Daily Insight

A key takeaway in the global commodity market is the relative strength of copper and precious metal prices. The sharp rise in Chinese scrap copper prices, coupled with Citi's bullish outlook, reflects sustained demand from the EV and renewable energy sectors.

Simultaneously, the supply chain structure is undergoing a rapid shift. The fact that Chinese firms hold over 72% of the global EV battery market exacerbates geopolitical risks. In response, the Indian government is pushing for lithium and nickel processing incentives, while Western nations are accelerating the realignment of their own semiconductor and battery supply chains.

6. What to Watch Next

• Airline Industry Conference: CEOs of global airlines will meet in Rio de Janeiro to discuss rising fuel costs stemming from the Middle East conflict.

• Iran Crude Oil Supply: Monitoring the normalization of Gulf inventory levels is necessary due to increased oil outflow through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Asia Crop Damage Assessment: Assessing the impact of extreme weather and expected El Niño patterns on major Asian grain production.

7. Reader Action Items

1. Monitor Rising Copper Prices: If Citi's $15,000/ton target becomes reality, procurement costs for EV and infrastructure firms will rise—supply chain teams should consider hedging via futures contracts.

2. Reassess Chinese Battery Supply Chain Risk: Strengthen monitoring of geopolitical and supply chain risks associated with the dominant 72% market share held by firms like CATL and BYD.

3. Track Indian Battery Metal Policy: Evaluate potential new investment opportunities for mining and refining companies once the lithium and nickel processing incentive policy is announced.

Source Disclaimer: All figures, company names, and contract details in this briefing are cited exclusively from the original sources mentioned above. Only data released after 2026-06-02 is included.