Carbon Market Watch — 2026-09-14
EU ETS prices are hovering near €82.50/t, with significant long-term volatility expected as a Nordic bank forecasts a surge to €180–€270/t by 2040 under proposed reforms. In the policy sphere, the UK finalized strict verification rules for its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), ending the era of estimated emissions data, while BRICS leaders formally opposed Western carbon border taxes as discriminatory.
Carbon Market Watch — 2026-09-14
EU ETS Price Update
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowance price is currently reported near €82.50 per tonne, having eased slightly from recent highs. While immediate spot prices remain stable, long-term forecasts have diverged significantly. A new analysis from a Nordic bank suggests that under the European Commission’s proposed overhaul of the EU ETS, carbon prices could climb to between €180 and €270 per tonne by 2040. This projection contrasts with earlier analyst cuts that predicted lower prices due to industrial slowdowns, highlighting the market's sensitivity to upcoming legislative reforms.
Compliance Markets Roundup
- EU ETS (Europe): The European Parliament and member states are scheduled to negotiate ETS reforms by December. A key development this week involves an EU negotiator proposing to raise the percentage of carbon market revenues spent on decarbonizing industry to 75%, aiming to bolster industrial resilience against high energy costs.
- UK ETS/Border Adjustment: The UK has finalized its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) regulations. From January 1, 2027, reliance on generic supply-chain emissions estimates will become a direct tax liability, requiring verified data. This marks a shift from the transitional reporting phase to a strict compliance regime.
Voluntary Carbon Market
No specific voluntary carbon market credit price updates or major corporate offset deals were published in the last 24 hours. The market remains focused on integrity standards, with ongoing discussions regarding the alignment of Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) with registry methodologies like those of Verra and Gold Standard, though no new rulings were issued this week.
Policy & Regulation
- BRICS Opposition to Carbon Border Taxes: In a joint declaration released on September 12, 2026, BRICS leaders formally opposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs), labeling them "unilateral and discriminatory." The declaration warned that such measures pose significant risks to developing countries' trade and climate action efforts, signaling potential trade disputes ahead of full EU and UK implementation phases.
- EU Transport Sector Impact: New analysis highlights how the 2026 ETS review specifically impacts the transport sector, particularly regarding long-haul emissions which are currently not fully included in the current ETS scope but are central to the proposed reforms.
Analysis: The End of "Estimates" in Carbon Border Adjustments
The UK’s finalization of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) verification rules represents a critical inflection point for global industrial supply chains. For years, importers have relied on generic default values or estimates for embedded emissions due to a lack of verified data from foreign suppliers. However, the new regulation stipulates that from January 1, 2027, relying on these estimates will constitute a direct tax liability. This move effectively forces the internationalization of carbon accounting standards, as exporters to the UK must now provide audited, site-specific emissions data to avoid punitive tariffs.
This regulatory tightening coincides with heightened geopolitical friction, exemplified by the BRICS declaration opposing such mechanisms as discriminatory. Developing nations argue that these border taxes act as non-tariff barriers that penalize their growing industries without providing adequate financial support for green transitions. The clash between the EU/UK’s demand for rigorous data verification and the Global South’s opposition creates a complex landscape for multinational corporations, who must now navigate both technical compliance hurdles and diplomatic tensions.
For industry stakeholders, the immediate implication is an urgent need to upgrade supply chain monitoring capabilities. Companies exporting steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen, and electricity to the UK or EU must invest in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems that meet stringent third-party audit standards. Failure to do so will result in higher effective tax rates, potentially rendering exports uncompetitive against domestic producers who benefit from free allowances or lower compliance costs.
Looking forward, this development may accelerate the adoption of digital product passports and blockchain-based emissions tracking to streamline verification. As the EU enters the full implementation phase of its own CBAM in 2026, the UK’s stricter stance on estimates could set a precedent for other jurisdictions like Canada and Australia, potentially fragmenting global trade rules into distinct carbon-regulated blocs.
What to Watch Next Week
- December Negotiations Preview: Watch for preliminary signals from the European Council and Parliament regarding the timeline for finalizing the 2026 ETS reform package, specifically the 75% revenue reinvestment proposal.
- BRICS Follow-up Actions: Monitor if developing nations propose alternative carbon financing mechanisms or trade retaliation strategies following their September 12 declaration.
- UK CBAM Guidance: Expect further detailed guidance from HM Revenue & Customs on the specific verification bodies approved for the new 2027 liability phase.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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