Commodity Watch — 2026-03-23

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Energy Markets

Brent Crude — Fifth Consecutive Weekly Gain Near $109 Brent crude is heading for a fifth straight weekly gain, with prices near $109 per barrel. The primary driver remains supply disruption linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the escalating Iran war. The Hormuz strait carries roughly 20% of global oil trade, and the ongoing conflict is tightening global energy supplies. Short-term outlook: elevated, with further upside risk if the conflict intensifies or diplomatic talks stall.

WTI Crude — Sustained Geopolitical Premium WTI crude is trading in lockstep with Brent, elevated on the same geopolitical risk premium. Earlier in March, oil surged as much as 29% in a single session before paring gains to settle roughly 7% higher — the largest single-session move since mid-2022. Since then, oil has continued trending upward on sustained supply fears. Short-term outlook: volatile, tracking Hormuz developments closely.

Natural Gas — Rising Oil Costs Add Inflationary Pressure Rising crude prices are filtering through into broader energy inflation fears. Corn — often used as a proxy for energy-linked feedstock costs — closed lower overnight as oil prices slipped in intraday trading, illustrating the tight correlation between energy and agricultural inputs. Nebraska ranchers were reported scrambling as wildfires devastate pasture, a secondary weather-driven stress on the natural gas and agricultural complex.

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Precious Metals

Gold — Mining Stocks Battered; Metal Under Pressure Gold and gold-mining equities have faced heavy selling in recent sessions. Newmont (NYSE: NEM) is now trading 26.3% below its pre-Iran-war levels (late February), following a wave of selling that saw 30.7 million shares traded in a single session. Gold, silver, and platinum stocks were the hardest hit. The counterintuitive weakness in gold — typically a safe-haven — stems from the oil shock boosting the U.S. dollar and dampening hopes of interest-rate cuts, which reduces gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Silver — Broad Precious Metals Sell-Off Continues Silver has joined gold in a broad precious metals retreat. The sell-off is driven by the same macro forces: a stronger dollar supported by the energy shock and reduced rate-cut expectations. The earlier narrative of silver outperforming gold in 2026 is being tested by the current inflation and growth uncertainty generated by elevated oil prices. Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal makes it particularly sensitive to growth concerns.

Platinum & Palladium — Caught in the Crossfire Platinum stocks have been among the hardest hit in the broader mining sector selloff. The metal, which had been positioned by some analysts as a potential 2026 outperformer, is now facing the same macro headwinds as gold and silver: dollar strength, inflation fears, and dampened industrial demand expectations.

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Base & Industrial Metals

Copper — Broad Sell-Off as Oil Shock Fuels Growth Fears Copper has joined the broader commodity sell-off, falling alongside gold. The driving force: rising oil prices have simultaneously increased inflation fears and growth concerns, a toxic combination for an industrial metal whose demand is closely tied to global manufacturing output. Dollar strength — boosted by the energy shock — is adding further pressure to copper prices by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers. Global commodity markets in March 2026 have experienced "wonderful volatility," driven by growing energy costs and currency fluctuations.

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Agriculture & Softs

Grains (Corn, Soybeans, Wheat) — Lower on Technical Selling and Global Pressure U.S. grain markets closed lower, with corn, soybeans, and wheat prices all declining amid technical selling and global demand pressures. Corn is particularly sensitive to the current macro environment, closing lower as oil prices dipped in intraday trading — reflecting the energy-agriculture input cost linkage. Analysts note that large ending stocks from 2025 are keeping a lid on prices, with projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat remaining near or below the breakeven cost of production for many farmers.

Coffee — Arabica Surges to 1.5-Month High on Hormuz Disruption Coffee is one of the clearest beneficiaries of the Strait of Hormuz closure in the softs complex. May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up +8.85 cents (+2.94%), hitting a 1.5-month high, as the closure of the strait disrupted supply chain logistics for coffee shipments. May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) meanwhile closed down 5 points (-0.14%), diverging from arabica — suggesting the supply concern is specifically targeting arabica shipping routes affected by the Hormuz closure. The rally extended a broader week-long run for arabica.

Fertilizers — Trade Restrictions Set to Drive 21% Price Surge Global fertilizer prices are projected to surge 21% as trade restrictions bite. This is a critical downstream risk for grain producers already facing tight margins: elevated fertilizer costs would further compress profitability for corn, soybean, and wheat farmers in the 2026 planting season. The combination of trade policy restrictions and elevated energy input costs is creating a cost-push squeeze on agricultural producers.

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Market Drivers & Macro Context

• USD Index: The dollar is strengthening, boosted by the oil shock from the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure. A stronger dollar applies broad downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodity prices including gold, silver, and copper, even as oil itself surges.

• Interest Rates: The energy-driven oil shock has dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts from the Fed and other central banks. Higher-for-longer rates weigh most heavily on non-yielding precious metals such as gold and silver, contributing to their recent weakness despite geopolitical turmoil.

• China: No fresh demand signals from China available in today's coverage window. Given copper's sell-off amid growth fears, China demand outlook remains a key variable to watch for industrial metals direction.

• Geopolitics: The ongoing Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant supply-side risk across energy, softs, and even precious metals. The strait disruption is simultaneously driving oil higher, arabica coffee higher, and — paradoxically — weighing on gold through dollar strength and rate-cut repricing.

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What to Watch Next

• Strait of Hormuz diplomatic developments: Any signal of ceasefire talks or re-opening of the strait would be the single largest potential price catalyst across energy, metals, and softs markets. Conversely, escalation could push Brent crude well above $110.
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Upcoming U.S. crude inventory data will either confirm or challenge the current bullish oil narrative. A surprise build could pressure WTI and Brent lower.
• USDA reports on grain outlook: With planting season approaching and fertilizer costs set to spike 21%, the USDA's next supply/demand update will be closely watched for corn and soybean price direction.
• Fed speakers and rate expectations: Any central bank commentary on the inflation implications of elevated oil will be critical for precious metals, which are currently being suppressed by reduced rate-cut expectations.

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Reader Action Items

• Monitor Strait of Hormuz updates closely for crude direction. Oil's fifth weekly gain is almost entirely driven by this single geopolitical bottleneck. A reopening could trigger a sharp reversal; continued closure supports further upside.
• Reassess precious metals positioning in the context of dollar strength. The traditional "Iran war = buy gold" thesis is being disrupted by the dollar-strengthening channel. Gold's underperformance relative to the crisis is an unusual signal worth watching for a potential delayed safe-haven re-entry.
• Watch arabica coffee (KCK26) for continued Hormuz supply disruption premium. Coffee has been one of the clearest winners from the Hormuz closure, and the trade is still unfolding — arabica's rally to a 1.5-month high may have further room if shipping routes remain restricted.