Commodity Watch — 2026-05-25
Oil prices tumbled sharply Sunday as reports emerged that a U.S.-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz appeared close — sending WTI crude down more than 5% in early trading. Gold and silver held steady or gained modestly as safe-haven demand balanced against the easing geopolitical risk. Agricultural commodities remained broadly stable, with wheat and corn showing little movement while copper hit record-high levels driven by structural demand from AI and electrification.
Commodity Watch — 2026-05-25
Today's Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $91.14 | -5.65% | ↓ down |
| Brent Crude | ~$99 (est. from -5.30% move) | -5.30% | ↓ down |
| Natural Gas | $2.993/MMBtu | -0.93% | ↓ down |
| Gold | $4,558.70/t.oz | +0.78% | ↑ up |
| Silver | $77.915/t.oz | +2.25% | ↑ up |
| Copper | $6.4285/lb | +0.78% | ↑ up |
| Wheat | 647.00¢/bu | -0.08% | → flat |
| Corn | 463.75¢/bu | +0.32% | ↑ up |
Note: Brent Crude approximate price estimated from reported percentage move; verify exact figure at source.
Top Stories
Oil Prices Tumble as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Appears Close, Hormuz Reopening in Sight
Reports surfaced Sunday morning that the United States is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would end the months-long war and reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, sending oil futures sharply lower. WTI crude fell more than 5.6% in early trading — the steepest single-day drop in weeks — while Brent crude followed suit with a decline of over 5.3%. The potential resolution marks a dramatic shift from weeks of escalation that had driven oil prices to multi-year highs.
Copper Prices Hit Record Highs; AI and Electrification Driving Demand
Copper has now reached its highest level on record, trading above $6.40/lb. While AI data center buildout and electrification demand are key structural drivers, market analysts say the story goes beyond tech — global infrastructure investment and the energy transition are sustaining demand that keeps supply tight. Copper is up more than 11% year-to-date and nearly 31% year-over-year.
EIA Forecasts Brent to Average $106/b in May-June, Then Drop as Middle East Tension Eases
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (published within the past week) projects Brent crude prices to average around $106/barrel in May and June 2026, but then fall to an average of $89/b in Q4 2026 as Middle East oil production rises. The EIA currently estimates global oil inventories are falling by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 — an extraordinary drawdown.
Energy Markets
The dominant story in energy markets this weekend is the dramatic reversal in oil prices triggered by peace-deal optimism. WTI crude fell from the $97 range seen in recent sessions to $91.14, while gasoline futures dropped nearly 4.9% to $3.19/gallon — offering potential relief to U.S. consumers after months of elevated prices at the pump. The weeks-long Iran war had sent Brent to a 4-year high above $114/barrel as recently as early May, after Iranian attacks on U.A.E. revived supply disruption fears. Over the past 75 days, an estimated nearly 1 billion barrels in oil supply has been lost due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
The EIA's outlook underlines the structural supply crisis even before this week's peace-deal news: global inventories have been drawing down at a pace of 8.5 million b/d in Q2 2026. Morgan Stanley had warned that if the Hormuz closure persisted through summer, Brent could reach $150/barrel. The potential deal reduces that tail risk significantly — though President Trump noted "there's no rush," leaving some uncertainty in the market. Natural gas slipped modestly, down 0.93% to $2.993/MMBtu, reflecting seasonal supply dynamics with storage builds expected to normalize in coming weeks.
Precious Metals & Industrial
Gold and silver diverged from the oil selloff, each posting gains as investors balanced reduced geopolitical risk premium against ongoing safe-haven demand. Gold rose 0.78% to $4,558.70/oz, while silver jumped 2.25% to $77.915/oz. Both metals remain substantially higher year-over-year — gold up 34.5% and silver up an extraordinary 125% on a year-over-year basis, reflecting both the Middle East conflict premium and structural demand from solar and industrial sectors.
Copper's record-setting run is a standout industrial story. Trading at $6.4285/lb — up 11.67% year-to-date — copper is benefiting from a rare convergence of demand drivers: AI data center electrical infrastructure, electric vehicle production, grid buildout for the energy transition, and sustained industrial demand in Asia. Supply constraints have been unable to keep up with this surge, making copper the top-performing base metal. Barchart noted that gold and silver are sliding relative to copper's outsized gains, flagging an unusual divergence between precious and industrial metals that may signal markets pricing in continued economic activity even as geopolitical risks fade.
Agriculture
Wheat and corn showed minimal movement, with wheat essentially flat at 647.00¢/bushel (-0.08%) and corn up 0.32% to 463.75¢/bushel. Agricultural markets are in a holding pattern ahead of upcoming U.S. crop reports and export data. Wheat is up 27.6% year-to-date and nearly 19% year-over-year — partially reflecting the global food security impact of elevated energy prices (which drive fertilizer and transport costs) related to the Middle East conflict. Any resolution to the Iran war could ease input cost pressures for the agricultural sector. No major weather events or trade policy disruptions were reported in the past 24 hours affecting crop markets.
What to Watch
- U.S.-Iran peace talks progress: Formal deal terms and timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening could trigger another sharp move in oil prices — either a continued decline if confirmed or a rebound if talks stall (Trump noted "there's no rush")
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Wednesday's U.S. inventory data will be watched closely to gauge how quickly supply can normalize if Hormuz reopens
- Federal Reserve speakers: Any commentary on inflation — which has been partly driven by energy prices — and the implications of potential oil price normalization for Fed rate policy
- Copper supply data: Watch LME copper inventory levels and major mining output reports as the metal holds all-time highs
- U.S. crop condition reports: USDA weekly crop progress reports for corn, soybeans, and wheat will be closely watched as summer planting season advances
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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