Commodity Watch — April 24, 2026

Today's Price Snapshot

Top Stories

Oil Surges Past $100 as Iran Ceasefire Deadline Approaches

Crude oil prices climbed sharply on April 23, with WTI rising 4.29% to nearly $97/bbl and Brent surging 4.37% above $106/bbl, as investors monitored the status of U.S.-Iran peace talks ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline. President Trump had extended the ceasefire contingent on Iran submitting a proposal, but little tangible progress was reported. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes — remained a major flashpoint, and fears of renewed disruption quickly reignited the oil risk premium.

Gold and Silver Drop as Crude Surge Dents Safe-Haven Mood

Gold fell nearly 1% to $4,693/t.oz and silver tumbled 2.92% on April 23, as rising crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace talks weighed on precious metals. On India's MCX, silver slumped Rs 6,100 and gold dipped Rs 1,000. Analysts cited concerns that prolonged high oil prices would fan inflation and sustain elevated interest rates, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Analysts advised investors to book profits and wait for dips while tracking global cues.

1 sources

img.etimg.com

img.etimg.com

Morgan Stanley Slashes Gold Forecast to $5,200 From $5,700

Morgan Stanley sharply revised its gold price target downward to $5,200/oz from a previous forecast of $5,700 — a cut of nearly $500 — as gold lost close to 8% in value over just six weeks. The bank's revised outlook reflects a deeper shift in market structure, with analysts noting the gold bull run appears to be losing momentum. Gold futures had already experienced a slight decline earlier in the week on April 21, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and market uncertainty. Whether the recent pullback represents a permanent reversal or a temporary dip is now a key question for investors.

Energy Markets

Crude oil markets have been extraordinarily volatile in 2026, driven almost entirely by the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz. After briefly touching above $100/bbl on Brent following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in prior weeks, prices had eased when Iran declared the waterway "completely open" — only to surge again as the ceasefire deadline loomed and peace talks showed little progress. On April 23, WTI settled near $96.95/bbl (+4.29%) and Brent at $106.36/bbl (+4.37%), reflecting renewed fears that the Strait could close again.

The EIA's latest short-term energy outlook (from early April) had projected Brent could peak at $115/bbl in Q2 2026 before easing, assuming production shut-ins slowly abate. That scenario now appears more plausible given the April 23 surge. Natural gas, by contrast, fell sharply — down 4.80% to $2.591/MMBtu — continuing a streak of weakness (down 11% on the month, and nearly 30% year-to-date), suggesting demand weakness and adequate supply despite the broader energy market turmoil.

Precious Metals & Industrial

Gold retreated nearly 1% on April 23 to $4,693/t.oz as oil's sharp rise dampened the safe-haven bid. The move came alongside a Morgan Stanley forecast cut that took the bank's gold target from $5,700 to $5,200/oz — a signal that even bullish institutional voices are tempering their enthusiasm after a 6-week, ~8% pullback in the metal. Still, not all analysts are bearish: a new report from InvestorIdeas.com published on April 23 described the outlook for gold, silver, and copper as "bullish," citing structural supply deficits, strong demand, and favorable macro trends across mining markets.

Silver fell 2.92% to $75.41/t.oz, while copper dropped 1.66% to $6.018/lbs. Both metals remain significantly elevated on a year-over-year basis (silver +124% YoY, copper +23% YoY), reflecting the impact of tight supply and industrial demand tied to the energy transition. Copper's monthly gain of nearly 11% suggests the industrial demand narrative remains intact even as near-term prices eased. The divergence between short-term sentiment — driven by geopolitics and oil — and longer-term structural trends is likely to persist.

Agriculture

Wheat gained 2.25% to 612.75¢/bu on April 23, extending its strong year-to-date trend (+21%). Corn edged up 0.44% to 456.25¢/bu. A major developing story for U.S. agriculture is the indirect impact of the Iran conflict on fertilizer costs: urea prices have climbed 47% since the end of February, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. The Strait of Hormuz closure delayed key fertilizer shipments, and most U.S. farmers cannot afford the full amount of fertilizer they need this season. That supply shock could dampen crop yields and put further upward pressure on grain prices in the months ahead — even though the Strait has since reopened.

What to Watch

• U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline: The most critical near-term driver for oil. Any breakdown in talks or renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption could send Brent back above $115/bbl per EIA projections.
• Iran peace proposal submission: President Trump extended the ceasefire deadline pending an Iranian proposal. Whether Tehran submits terms — and their content — will be the dominant catalyst for energy markets this week.
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Inventories: The next U.S. crude inventory report will provide a key data point on whether domestic supply buffers are holding up amid the Middle East disruption.
• Gold and silver technical levels: With Morgan Stanley cutting its gold target to $5,200 and prices already pulling back 8% in six weeks, the $4,500–$4,600 zone will be closely watched as support.
• Fertilizer and grain supply outlook: The lagged impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on urea and fertilizer availability will weigh on U.S. crop production; USDA crop reports due in coming weeks will be closely scrutinized.