Commodity Watch — 2026-05-24

Today's Price Snapshot

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Oil Posts Largest Weekly Drop in Two Weeks as Iran Deal Hopes Emerge

Oil futures marked their biggest one-day decline in two weeks on Wednesday, May 20, after President Donald Trump suggested a deal with Iran was close, raising hopes for a resolution to the months-long stalemate in the Middle East. Brent had spiked to $114 earlier in May before retreating, as peace signals injected uncertainty into what had been an unambiguous supply-shock rally. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent prices around $106/barrel in May and June before falling as Middle East production rises.

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barchart.com

barchart.com

Copper Hits All-Time Record — It's Not Just AI

Copper prices reached an all-time record high in mid-May 2026. While the AI buildout narrative has dominated copper headlines, MarketWatch highlights a less-discussed driver: copper refining now has a Strait of Hormuz problem. Iran's conflict has disrupted key shipping routes used by copper-concentrated supply chains, compounding already-tight global inventories. On the latest session, copper held at $6.345/lb, up 1.41% on the day and more than 31% year-over-year.

Barclays Warns of Upside Risk to $100 Oil Price Forecast

Barclays has flagged upside risks to its $100/bbl oil forecast for 2026, citing rapidly falling global oil inventories and continued Strait of Hormuz disruption. With inventories declining and limited strategic buffer remaining, prices are exposed to a sharp spike if the geopolitical stalemate worsens. The bank noted that global oil inventories fell by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, according to the EIA.

Energy Markets

Oil markets remain the dominant story in commodities. Brent crude closed at $103.94/bbl on May 22 — up 1.33% on the day but down sharply from a 4-year high above $114 set earlier in the month. The precipitating event was President Trump's comment that a deal with Iran was "close," which triggered one of the largest single-day oil declines in two weeks. WTI crude also settled at $97.00/bbl, up 0.67% on May 22.

The broader context is that the world has lost nearly 1 billion barrels in oil supply over the roughly 75 days since the Iran war began, according to MarketWatch analysis. Global oil prices have climbed nearly 50% since the end of February as a result. Morgan Stanley has warned that if the Strait of Hormuz closes fully, Brent could surge to $150/barrel by summer — a scenario markets are only partially pricing in. The EIA expects Brent will average $106/barrel in May-June before easing to $89/bbl in Q4 2026 and $79/bbl in 2027 as Middle Eastern production recovers.

Natural gas diverged sharply from oil, falling 3.21% to $2.921/MMBtu on May 22. This disconnect reflects gas-specific supply-demand dynamics: seasonal demand headwinds and rising storage builds are weighing on prices even as broader energy markets remain tight. Gasoline, by contrast, remains elevated at $3.4626/gallon (+2.46%), with Middle East hostilities turbocharged the seasonal summer driving rally to levels last seen in 2022. | |

Precious Metals & Industrial

Gold fell modestly to $4,516.75/t.oz on May 22, down 0.58% on the day, though it remains 34.51% higher than a year ago. The pullback appears to be profit-taking after gold's extraordinary run driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying amid Middle East instability. Over the past month, gold has slipped 3.86% as some peace signals emerged from Iran negotiations. Silver also retreated, falling 1.69% to $75.349/t.oz, though its year-over-year gain of 125% dwarfs gold's already-impressive rally — reflecting strong industrial silver demand alongside safe-haven buying.

Copper is the standout industrial metal of the cycle. At $6.345/lb, copper is up 31.38% year-over-year and recently hit an all-time record. The dual drivers are AI infrastructure buildout (which requires massive copper wiring) and the Strait of Hormuz disruption to copper supply chains. Aluminum also gained, trading at $3,650.90/metric ton (+0.35%), while platinum fell 1.70% to $1,931.40/t.oz. | |

Agriculture

Agricultural markets were relatively subdued on May 22 compared to the fireworks in energy and metals. Wheat was essentially flat at 647.00¢/bushel (-0.08%), though it remains 27.6% higher year-to-date and 19.3% above year-ago levels — reflecting lingering concerns about global supply chains and geopolitical disruptions to Black Sea-region shipments. Corn edged up 0.27% to 463.75¢/bushel, with year-to-date gains of 5.3% and minimal year-over-year change (+0.87%), suggesting the market is in a more balanced supply position. Soybeans gained 0.25% to 1,197.25¢/bushel. Rice was up 35.3% year-to-date, the largest agricultural gainer — a reflection of export restrictions from key Asian producers earlier in the year.

What to Watch

• Iran nuclear/war negotiations: The key commodity macro driver. Any credible peace deal could trigger a sharp oil selloff; a breakdown in talks risks a Hormuz closure and an oil spike toward $150/bbl. Trump has said a deal is "close" — watch for official announcements.
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: U.S. crude and gasoline inventory data will be closely watched for signals on domestic supply tightness as driving season accelerates.
• Federal Reserve communications: The Fed's rate path affects the dollar and, by extension, dollar-denominated commodity prices including gold, oil, and copper.
• Copper supply chain developments: Any new disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping routes affecting copper concentrates could extend the record-price rally further.
• USDA Crop Progress Reports: Corn and soybean planting progress data will shape near-term agricultural price direction as the U.S. planting season advances.