Commodity Watch — 2026-04-22

Today's Price Snapshot

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US Seizure of Ship Collapses Iran Peace Deal, Strait of Hormuz Fears Reignite

Oil prices surged Monday as a US seizure of an Iranian vessel shattered hopes for an imminent ceasefire, sending fresh fears through energy markets that the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil transits — could be disrupted again. The FTSE 100 slid and UK gas prices spiked on fears that the strait could be closed for an extended period. Both WTI and Brent crude jumped roughly 4–5% on the news, with Brent briefly touching above $99/barrel.

EIA Forecasts Oil Peaking at $115/bbl in Q2 2026

The US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent spot prices to peak at $115/barrel in the second quarter of 2026 before easing as production shut-ins — caused by damage to Gulf energy facilities — slowly abate. The EIA noted that Brent averaged $103/barrel in March. With the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the agency's near-term forecast remains highly contingent on geopolitical developments.

Gold Retreats From Record Highs on Profit-Taking

After a strong run above $4,700/oz, gold prices pulled back sharply on April 21–22, dropping over 2% as some investors took profits. Despite the pullback, gold remains 41% higher year-over-year. LiteFinance's daily analysis highlights strong safe-haven demand underlying the market, with the ceasefire deadline and oil-driven inflation fears keeping institutional interest in gold elevated. Silver also fell nearly 4%, though it remains up over 135% year-over-year.

Energy Markets

Oil markets lurched higher on April 20–21 after a US seizure of a vessel crushed hopes for a rapid Iran ceasefire, with WTI bouncing from around $87 back above $90/barrel and Brent surging toward the $95–99 range. The move came just days after the Strait of Hormuz had briefly been declared "completely open" by Iran, which had sent prices to 5-week lows. That fragile peace has now crumbled, with investors again bracing for renewed disruptions to the roughly 20% of global seaborne oil that transits the strait.

MarketWatch reported that "global oil prices climb back above $95 a barrel, as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again and ceasefire deadline looms." US stock futures tumbled on the news as oil surged, reversing a three-week S&P 500 rally. The ceasefire deadline is described as falling Wednesday evening, making the next 48 hours critical for energy markets.

Natural gas also ticked up, with US Henry Hub prices rising about 0.77% to $2.71/MMBtu. European gas prices surged more dramatically — TTF Gas jumped over 7% and UK gas climbed 5% — as fears of renewed Strait of Hormuz closure rippled through European LNG supply chains. Despite the short-term bounce, US natural gas remains down over 26% year-to-date and nearly 10% year-over-year, reflecting ample domestic supply.

1 sources

stonex.com

stonex.com

Precious Metals & Industrial

Gold's sharp pullback of over 2% on April 21 — from above $4,718/oz — marks a near-term profit-taking correction after a strong multi-week rally driven by safe-haven demand from the US-Iran conflict. On a year-over-year basis, gold is still up 41%, reflecting how dramatically the geopolitical environment has reshaped the metals market in 2026. LiteFinance's daily analysis notes that key support levels are being tested, with the next ceasefire developments likely to set the near-term direction.

Silver fell even harder, dropping nearly 4% to around $76–78/oz, though it remains extraordinarily strong on an annual basis (+135% YoY). Copper dipped modestly by 0.44% to around $6.01–6.05/lb, still up 23% year-over-year. Industrial metals broadly reflect the tension between near-term risk-off positioning (driven by oil market chaos) and longer-term structural demand from energy transition sectors. Copper's monthly gain of over 10% underscores persistent demand expectations even as geopolitical headlines create short-term volatility.

Agriculture

Wheat edged up 1.42% to around 605–613¢/bushel while corn gained 0.39% to around 453–464¢/bushel, both benefiting modestly from the broader commodity risk premium associated with the Iran conflict. However, the most significant agriculture story in the current environment is the indirect impact of the Iran war on US farming economics: MarketWatch reported that urea fertilizer prices have climbed 47% since the end of February, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, with most US farmers unable to afford all the fertilizer they need this year. The reopening (and now re-closure) of the Strait of Hormuz came too late to meaningfully reduce input costs for the 2026 growing season, raising concerns about US crop yields later in the year.

What to Watch

• Iran ceasefire deadline (Wednesday evening): The most critical near-term market catalyst — a failed ceasefire would likely push oil prices toward $100–$115/barrel, while a successful deal could see a sharp reversal lower.
• Strait of Hormuz status: Any updates on whether the strait is open or restricted to commercial shipping will immediately move oil and European gas markets.
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: US crude and product inventory data will give insight into how much the conflict has already tightened physical supply.
• Gold support levels: Following the sharp 2%+ pullback, traders will watch whether gold holds key support near $4,600–$4,700/oz or resumes its safe-haven rally.
• US agricultural input costs: Fertilizer prices remain at elevated levels after the 47% surge since February — any further Strait of Hormuz disruptions could worsen the outlook for 2026 US crop production.