Commodity Watch — 2026-05-18
Oil surged again this week as the Iran war stalemate continues to choke global supply, with WTI topping $107/bbl and Brent near $109/bbl on concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. Precious metals pulled back sharply — gold fell over 2% and silver cratered nearly 9% — as rising oil-driven inflation pressures dampened safe-haven demand. Agricultural markets saw wheat and corn rebound, while copper hit record highs amid a structural supply crunch linked to both the Iran war and AI-driven industrial demand.
Commodity Watch — 2026-05-18
Today's Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $107.67/bbl | +2.13% | ↑ up |
| Brent Crude | $109.26/bbl | +3.35% | ↑ up |
| Natural Gas | $3.022/MMBtu | +2.09% | ↑ up |
| Gold | $4,545.30/t.oz | -0.36% | ↓ down |
| Silver | $75.275/t.oz | -2.93% | ↓ down |
| Copper | $6.2370/lb | -0.92% | ↓ down |
| Wheat | 651.75¢/bu | +2.52% | ↑ up |
| Corn | 466.25¢/bu | +2.30% | ↑ up |
Top Stories
Oil War Stalemate Keeps Crude Elevated — 1 Billion Barrels Lost in 75 Days
The ongoing U.S.-Iran war remains stuck in a geopolitical impasse, and commodity markets are feeling the full weight of it. Since the conflict began roughly 75 days ago, analysts estimate the world has lost nearly 1 billion barrels in oil supply — yet prices, while elevated, have not fully priced in that loss, according to market watchers. Brent is up nearly 50% since the end of February, but some analysts argue investors aren't worrying enough given the scale of disruption. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint; a full closure could push Brent to $150/barrel by summer, according to a Morgan Stanley warning earlier this week.
Copper Hits Record Highs — AI and the Strait of Hormuz Are Both to Blame
Copper prices have surged to all-time highs, with futures last trading near $6.24/lb. While AI infrastructure buildout — which demands copper-intensive data centers and electrical systems — has been a key driver of demand, the Iran war is adding a new wrinkle: copper refining now faces a "Strait of Hormuz problem," as shipping disruptions complicate the global supply chain for the industrial metal. The combination of structural demand growth and geopolitical supply risk has sent copper to levels never seen before.
U.S. Households Face Diesel Shock Beyond the Gas Pump
With oil prices elevated, Americans are feeling pain not just at the gasoline pump but increasingly from diesel, which powers trucks, trains, and tractors — the backbone of the U.S. supply chain. Diesel prices are approaching record highs, creating what analysts describe as a "second wave" of inflation. Higher diesel costs feed through to food, retail goods, and freight costs, compounding the consumer price pressure already caused by elevated gasoline prices. The situation is being closely watched by the Federal Reserve as it weighs the inflation implications of the prolonged conflict.
Energy Markets
The Iran war continues to dominate energy market sentiment, keeping crude prices structurally elevated. WTI crude traded near $107.67/bbl on Sunday, up 2.13% on the session, while Brent settled around $109.26/bbl, up 3.35%. The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent will average around $106/bbl in May and June as global oil inventories fall by an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 — a massive withdrawal rate driven by conflict-related supply disruptions.
Looking further ahead, the EIA expects prices to moderate as Middle East production eventually recovers — projecting Brent to fall to $89/bbl in Q4 2026 and $79/bbl thereafter. But that outlook is conditioned on a resolution to the Iran conflict that remains elusive. Morgan Stanley warned this week that a full Strait of Hormuz closure — while not the base case — could push Brent to $150/barrel by summer.
Natural gas also rose on the session, with Henry Hub futures trading at $3.022/MMBtu, up 2.09%. European TTF gas surged even more dramatically, up 5.27% to €50.17/MWh on a week-over-week basis, reflecting broader energy supply anxiety in Europe tied to Middle East disruptions and tight LNG markets.
Precious Metals & Industrial
Gold retreated modestly on Sunday, trading near $4,545/t.oz, down 0.36% on the session but still holding near multi-month highs. The pullback comes after a week of volatility as investors weigh the safe-haven appeal of gold against rising inflation expectations driven by elevated oil prices. Higher oil prices increase inflation expectations, which can complicate the rate-cut calculus for the Federal Reserve and reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold.
Silver suffered a sharper decline, down 2.93% to $75.275/t.oz on the continuous futures contract, continuing its underperformance relative to gold. The gold/silver ratio has widened recently, reflecting silver's more mixed role as both an industrial and precious metal — it benefits less from pure safe-haven demand but is also sensitive to industrial activity concerns.
Copper, the most industrially sensitive of the major metals, edged down 0.92% to $6.237/lb on Sunday's session following a week in which it had hit all-time record highs. The pullback reflects some profit-taking after an extraordinary run, but the structural bull case remains intact: AI data center buildout continues to accelerate copper demand, while the Iran conflict has introduced new supply chain risks for copper refining that were not present six months ago.
Agriculture
Wheat and corn futures both rebounded sharply on Sunday, with wheat up 2.52% to 651.75¢/bu and corn up 2.30% to 466.25¢/bu. Grain markets have been volatile in recent weeks, caught between supportive factors — including strong export demand as Middle East instability disrupts alternative suppliers — and headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns about consumer demand destruction from high energy prices. On a year-over-year basis, wheat is up 21.1% and corn is up only modestly at 2.76%, suggesting grains have not seen the same geopolitical premium as energy commodities. Soybeans fell 1.30% to 1,177¢/bu, extending a mild weekly pullback.
What to Watch
- Strait of Hormuz developments: Any escalation or de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran war remains the single most important commodity price driver. A full closure would be catastrophic for oil markets; a peace deal or ceasefire could trigger a rapid reversal in crude prices.
- U.S. inflation data (CPI/PPI): With diesel and gasoline prices near historic highs, the next inflation prints will determine whether the Fed delays rate cuts further — critical for gold, silver, and dollar-sensitive commodities.
- EIA weekly petroleum inventories: The next weekly inventory report will provide real-time evidence of how fast global oil stocks are drawing down; the EIA projects an 8.5 million b/d deficit in Q2 2026.
- Copper supply chain updates: Watch for shipping data and refinery output reports from Asia and the Middle East that could confirm or deny the emerging "Strait of Hormuz problem" for copper supply chains.
- USDA crop progress reports: As U.S. planting season advances, weekly crop condition updates from the USDA will shape the near-term direction for corn, wheat, and soybean prices heading into summer.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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