Commodity Watch — 2026-04-28
Oil prices surged higher on Monday as the U.S.-Iran standoff intensified, with Brent crude topping $108/bbl amid concerns that Iran's crude storage is nearing capacity and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold fell nearly 0.3% but remains near record highs, with analysts projecting it could end 2026 below $4,500/oz. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast yet again, while natural gas continued a modest pullback. Market sentiment remains cautious, dominated by Middle East geopolitical risk and energy supply disruption narratives.
Commodity Watch — 2026-04-28
Today's Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $97.42/bbl | +1.09% | up |
| Brent Crude | $108.11/bbl | +2.64% (Apr 27) | up |
| Natural Gas | $2.505/MMBtu | -1.76% | down |
| Gold | $4,680.20/t.oz | -0.29% | down |
| Silver | $74.545/t.oz | -0.64% | down |
| Copper | $6.015/lbs | -0.10% | down |
| Wheat | 631.50¢/bu | +0.28% | up |
| Corn | 469.75¢/bu | +0.11% | up |
Top Stories
Oil Surges as Iran's Crude Storage Nears Capacity, Strait of Hormuz Blockade Continues
Global oil futures climbed sharply on Monday as the ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff fueled concerns that Iran's crude storage is nearing capacity following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude topped $108 per barrel, while WTI rose above $97. The prospect of forced production cuts in Iran — not just a supply disruption at the strait — is adding a new bullish dimension to energy markets that traders are still digesting.
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Yet Again
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the third time in recent weeks, citing the persistent supply disruption stemming from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz situation. The bank's updated projection pushes the near-term ceiling higher, reflecting the view that the conflict's impact on global supply chains will take longer to resolve than initially anticipated. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, published earlier this month, had already flagged expectations that Brent could peak near $115/bbl in Q2 2026 before easing — Goldman appears to be revising that ceiling upward.
Gold Loses Ground Near Record Highs; Analysts Eye Sub-$4,500 Year-End Target
Gold futures slipped roughly 0.3% on Monday, trading around $4,680/oz, pulling back from recent record highs. MarketWatch noted that gold has lost nearly 11% since the Iran war began — as the initial safe-haven rush has been offset by surging oil-driven inflation fears and a stronger dollar. Despite the recent pullback, a new survey of analysts cited by Investing.com suggests gold will end 2026 below the $4,500/oz level, implying further downside is possible if geopolitical risk premium erodes. High oil prices contributing to slower GDP growth could, however, re-ignite gold's appeal as a stagflation hedge.
Energy Markets
Oil markets opened the week with a strong bid, building on last week's gains that had already seen Brent post an 11% weekly surge. The immediate catalyst was a new MarketWatch report published April 27 indicating that Iran's crude storage is nearing capacity as a result of the Strait of Hormuz blockade — meaning Tehran may soon be forced to curtail production even beyond what the blockade has already disrupted. Brent crude was quoted at $108.11/bbl as of April 27 (up 2.64% on the day), while WTI continuous contract was trading at $97.42 (+1.09%). Fortune's daily oil tracker noted Brent at $106.73/bbl at 9 a.m. ET on April 27.
The U.S.-Iran standoff remains the dominant macro driver. President Trump has shown little sign of backing down despite elevated domestic gas prices, and gas prices remain above $3.50/gallon nationally. MarketWatch's Myra Saefong noted April 24 that gas prices "still look too low for Trump to give in to Iran right now," suggesting the administration may maintain pressure. Goldman Sachs, in a note published late April 27, raised its oil forecast yet again — the third such upgrade in recent weeks — reinforcing the market's view that supply disruption risk is larger and more durable than originally priced.
Natural gas, by contrast, continues to retreat. The U.S. benchmark fell 1.76% to $2.505/MMBtu, remaining well below year-ago levels (-19.70% YoY). European gas markets are also easing: TTF gas was quoted at €44.41/MWh (-0.61%), though still up nearly 6% on the week as LNG rerouting concerns linger.
Precious Metals & Industrial
Gold's recent trajectory has been complex. After surging to record highs in the early weeks of the Iran conflict on safe-haven demand, the metal has since given back roughly 11% from its peak, as MarketWatch noted on April 27. The reversal reflects a tug-of-war between competing forces: rising oil-driven inflation (which supports gold) versus a strengthening U.S. dollar and hawkish Fed expectations (which weigh on gold). An Investing.com analyst survey published April 28 concluded that gold is likely to end 2026 below $4,500/oz — still well above pre-conflict levels but implying meaningful further downside from current prices around $4,680.
Silver also declined, off 0.64% to $74.545/oz — still up a remarkable 126% year-over-year. Copper fell a modest 0.10% to $6.015/lb on muted industrial demand signals, though it remains up nearly 25% year-over-year as infrastructure spending globally keeps demand resilient. The LiteFinance daily gold forecast (published within the past 24 hours) flagged key technical support and resistance levels that traders are monitoring, with short-term sentiment cautious amid the macro uncertainty.
Agriculture
Wheat and corn saw modest gains on Monday — wheat up 0.28% to 631.50¢/bu and corn up 0.11% to 469.75¢/bu. Wheat is now up 22.98% year-to-date and 23.28% year-over-year, reflecting persistent supply concerns. The MarketWatch coverage from April 17 flagged that most U.S. farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption arriving too late in the planting cycle to help input costs. Urea prices remain elevated (+78.65% YTD), underscoring the cost pressure on agricultural producers. Soybeans slipped 0.43% to 1172.20¢/bu.
What to Watch
- U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Developments: Any resumption of peace talks — or further escalation — will be the single biggest mover for oil, gold, and natural gas markets this week. Watch for White House statements and Middle East news flow.
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Inventories (Wednesday): U.S. crude inventory data will be closely watched for signs of whether domestic production is filling the Iran supply gap or whether stocks are drawing down.
- Fed Policy Signals: With oil-driven inflation keeping headline CPI elevated, any commentary from Fed officials about the path of interest rates could whipsaw gold and broader commodity markets.
- Goldman Sachs and Other Bank Forecasts: Wall Street banks continue to update oil forecasts rapidly; watch for further revisions from JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup this week.
- Wheat/Agricultural Reports: With fertilizer costs squeezing farmers ahead of the planting season, USDA crop condition reports and any weather developments in key wheat-growing regions (Ukraine, U.S. Plains) could move grain prices.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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