Commodity Watch — 2026-05-20

Today's Price Snapshot

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Iran War Stalemate Keeps Oil Markets on Edge

WTI crude oil futures climbed back toward $107 per barrel on Monday as uncertainty deepened over US-Iran negotiations aimed at resolving the Strait of Hormuz closure. Markets remain highly volatile, with oil prices elevated as the Strait stays largely shut and attacks on key infrastructure continue to disrupt production. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent prices around $106/barrel in May and June, with expectations of a price decline later in 2026 as Middle East production eventually recovers.

Natural Gas Surges to 8-Week High on Seasonal Maintenance

June Nymex natural gas (NGM26) closed up +0.090 (+2.98%) on Tuesday, adding to Monday's gains and posting an 8-week nearest-future high. Annual spring maintenance has curbed US nat-gas production significantly, providing upward price pressure. Gains were moderated by the seasonal nature of the disruption — markets expect production to normalize as maintenance winds down.

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barchart.com

barchart.com

Copper Hits Record Highs — Hormuz Disruption Adds New Pressure

Copper prices reached their highest level on record earlier this month, driven not just by AI infrastructure demand but now compounded by a new factor: the Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting copper refining supply chains. The combination of structural demand growth and acute supply-side shocks has pushed copper to historic territory. Prices pulled back -1.97% on May 19 as markets digested the run-up, but analysts see continued upward pressure.

Energy Markets

Oil prices remain near multi-year highs as the Strait of Hormuz standoff between the US and Iran shows no signs of resolution. WTI crude hovered near $104/barrel on May 19, while Brent traded around $111/barrel — representing gains of roughly 82% and 70% year-over-year respectively, according to Trading Economics data. The EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, supporting elevated prices in the near term.

Morgan Stanley has warned that a prolonged Hormuz closure could push Brent to $150/barrel by summer in a worst-case scenario — describing the situation as a "race against time." MarketWatch reporting from this week noted that the world has lost nearly 1 billion barrels in oil supply over the past 75 days since the start of the Iran war, a figure that analysts argue is still not fully priced into markets. US stock futures fell Sunday after Trump called Iran's latest peace offer "totally unacceptable," adding to the geopolitical premium embedded in oil.

Natural gas markets saw a separate but significant catalyst: annual spring maintenance curbed US dry gas production, pushing June Nymex futures to an 8-week high of $3.11/MMBtu — a gain of nearly 3% on the day. European gas benchmarks also surged, with TTF rising 3.37% to €51.94/MWh and UK natural gas climbing 2.81%.

Precious Metals & Industrial

Gold retreated sharply on May 19, falling 1.86% to $4,482/t.oz as Iran war-related risk sentiment shifted — with some investors rotating out of safe-haven positions after initial optimism around diplomatic contacts. Despite the day's pullback, gold remains 36% higher year-over-year, reflecting the sustained geopolitical premium from the Middle East conflict. The month-to-date performance is down roughly 7%, suggesting some mean reversion after gold's dramatic run to record highs earlier in 2026.

Silver saw an even sharper decline, dropping 5.11% to $73.69/t.oz on May 19. Silver's dual role as both a precious metal and industrial commodity makes it sensitive to both safe-haven flows and economic growth expectations. Copper retreated 1.97% to $6.15/lb, pulling back after hitting record highs earlier in May. Despite the daily decline, copper is up 8% year-to-date and 32% year-over-year, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption adding a new supply-chain dimension beyond the structural AI/energy transition demand story.

Agriculture

Wheat edged up 0.53% to 668¢/bushel on May 19, while corn dipped 0.37% to 475¢/bushel. Soybeans slipped 0.23% to 1,210¢/bushel. The agriculture complex is outperforming on a monthly basis — wheat is up nearly 12% over the past month and 32% year-to-date — partly reflecting elevated energy and fertilizer input costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Diesel prices near record highs are adding to farm operating costs across the US, with broader inflationary pressures feeding through to food commodity prices. No major crop reports are due this week, but markets will be watching USDA weekly export data closely given disruptions to global shipping routes.

What to Watch

• US-Iran negotiations: Any breakthrough — or further breakdown — in talks over the Strait of Hormuz could cause major moves in crude, LNG, and energy-linked metals. Trump's characterization of Iran's latest offer as "totally unacceptable" makes a quick resolution unlikely.
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report (Wednesday): Markets will scrutinize US crude, gasoline, and distillate stock draws, with global supply tightness already extreme.
• Natural gas production recovery: Watch for signals that spring maintenance work is completing, which could ease the current 8-week high in nat-gas futures.
• USDA Weekly Export Sales (Thursday): With global shipping disrupted, US agricultural export data will be critical for wheat, corn, and soybean price direction.
• Federal Reserve speakers: Any Fed commentary on inflation and interest rates will influence dollar strength and, by extension, dollar-denominated commodity prices across the board — particularly gold and oil.