Commodity Watch — 2026-05-23
Oil markets remain the dominant story as the US-Iran war continues to constrain Strait of Hormuz flows, with Brent crude holding above $103/barrel and Barclays warning of upside risk to its $100/barrel forecast amid rapidly falling global inventories. Gasoline prices are surging to their highest since the 2022 driving season, while gold retreated slightly from record levels near $4,510/oz and copper hit new records on AI-driven demand. Natural gas pulled back sharply on expectations of US storage builds, providing a rare counterpressure in an otherwise bullish energy complex.
Commodity Watch — 2026-05-23
Today's Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $97.06/bbl | +0.74% | up |
| Brent Crude | $103.94/bbl | +1.33% | up |
| Natural Gas | $2.92/MMBtu | -3.22% | down |
| Gold | $4,510.50/t.oz | -0.70% | down |
| Silver | $75.92/t.oz | -1.06% | down |
| Copper | $6.38/lb | +1.37% | up |
| Wheat | 647¢/bu | -0.08% | down |
| Corn | 463.75¢/bu | +0.32% | up |
Top Stories
Barclays Warns of Upside Risk to $100 Oil Forecast Amid Rapid Inventory Drawdown
Global oil inventories are falling rapidly, with the EIA estimating a draw of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 — leaving prices exposed to further gains if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues. Barclays, which had a $100/barrel forecast for 2026, is now flagging upside risk to that target as supply buffers are depleted faster than anticipated. With Brent currently above $103/barrel and Morgan Stanley warning of potential $150/barrel prices by summer if Hormuz remains blocked, the market is pricing in a protracted conflict.
Gasoline Prices Hit 4-Year High as Driving Season Begins
US gasoline prices surged to their highest level since the 2022 driving season, fueled by Middle East hostilities turbocharged on top of seasonal spring-summer demand. Gasoline futures are up more than 2% on the day and over 102% year-to-date — a striking reminder of how the Iran conflict is bleeding through to consumer pump prices. With summer driving season underway, analysts are questioning how much higher gasoline can climb before demand destruction sets in.
Copper Hits Record Highs — AI Demand Meets a Strait of Hormuz Problem
Copper prices climbed to all-time record levels this week, with futures up over 1.37% on the day and 31% year-over-year. While AI infrastructure buildout has driven long-run structural demand, the Strait of Hormuz disruption has added an acute supply shock: a significant portion of copper refining capacity depends on energy and logistics flows through the Gulf. The combination of surging AI-driven demand and a war-disrupted supply chain has created a perfect storm for the metal.
Energy Markets
Oil prices remain elevated and volatile, anchored above $97/barrel for WTI and $103/barrel for Brent as the US-Iran conflict grinds on with no resolution in sight. The EIA's May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook estimated that global oil inventories will fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in Q2 2026, a staggering drawdown that has pushed Brent toward its current $106/barrel target range for May-June. The EIA does project relief later in 2026 as Middle East production eventually rises, forecasting Brent to drop to $89/b in Q4 2026 and $79/b in 2026 — but that outlook is entirely contingent on de-escalation.
The most acute concern among market participants is the state of strategic buffers. MarketWatch reported earlier this week that the world has lost nearly 1 billion barrels in oil supply over the past 75 days since the Iran war began. Morgan Stanley warned that a complete Hormuz closure could push Brent to $150/barrel by summer — a scenario that markets have not yet fully priced in, according to analysts. President Trump's conflicting signals — alternating between warning that the "clock is ticking" on Iran and suggesting a deal is close — have kept traders whipsawed between risk-on and risk-off postures on an almost daily basis.
Natural gas bucked the bullish energy trend, falling over 3% on the day after retreating from an 8-week high. Abundant US natural gas supplies and expectations that storage levels will continue to build weighed heavily on June NYMEX natural gas futures (NGM26). European gas benchmarks (TTF) are also down slightly but remain 73% higher year-over-year, reflecting structural tightness in the European market that predates the current conflict.
Precious Metals & Industrial
Gold pulled back modestly from its recent record levels, trading near $4,510/oz — down about 0.70% on the session but still 34% higher year-over-year. The yellow metal has been a primary beneficiary of geopolitical safe-haven flows since the Iran war began, but short-term profit-taking has emerged near these elevated levels. The broader multi-month trend remains decisively bullish, supported by central bank buying, dollar uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East risk premium.
Silver underperformed gold on the day, declining over 1% to $75.92/oz. While silver has surged a remarkable 125% year-over-year — significantly outpacing gold — it remains more sensitive to risk-off sentiment due to its larger industrial component.
Copper's record-breaking rally is the standout industrial metals story of the week. Prices are up 31% year-over-year and hit all-time highs, driven by a rare convergence of secular demand from AI data center buildouts and the acute supply shock from Hormuz disruption affecting refining logistics. Aluminum is also firming, up 0.35% on the day and 21.86% year-to-date, as energy-intensive smelting costs remain elevated globally.
Agriculture
Wheat futures edged slightly lower, trading at 647¢/bushel (-0.08%), though prices are still up 27.6% year-to-date and 19.3% year-over-year — reflecting persistent concerns about Black Sea supply chains and elevated shipping costs. Corn held firm at 463.75¢/bushel (+0.32%), up modestly on the week. Soybeans gained 0.25% to $11.97/bushel. Palm oil continued its recent recovery, rising 0.63%. The overall agricultural complex is being squeezed by elevated energy input costs (fertilizer, diesel) driven by the same Hormuz disruption affecting crude markets, adding a secondary inflation channel for food commodities beyond direct grain supply factors.
What to Watch
- Iran-US war developments: Any signal of ceasefire negotiations or further escalation will be the single largest price catalyst across energy, metals, and agriculture markets. Trump's stated desire to end the war "very quickly" is being watched closely but has not moved markets decisively yet.
- EIA weekly petroleum inventory report: The next US crude and petroleum product inventory release will be closely scrutinized for confirmation of the 8.5 million b/d drawdown pace the EIA projected for Q2 2026.
- Strait of Hormuz shipping data: Real-time tanker tracking through the Strait is the ground truth for whether supply disruption is widening or stabilizing — any changes in throughput will immediately move Brent prices.
- Fed speeches and US inflation data: With energy prices feeding into CPI, any Fed commentary on commodity-driven inflation will affect the dollar (and thus gold and copper pricing).
- Copper LME inventory levels: With copper at all-time highs, exchange inventory drawdowns will be the key metric confirming whether physical demand is genuinely outpacing supply or whether speculative positioning is getting ahead of fundamentals.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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