Commodity Watch — 2026-04-27
Oil markets remain the dominant story as WTI crude trades near $94–95/barrel and Brent above $105, sustained by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and its grip on Strait of Hormuz supply flows. Gold continues to command a historic premium above $4,700/oz on safe-haven demand, while natural gas slides further on ample storage. Agricultural commodities show mixed signals, with wheat firming on geopolitical supply uncertainty. Overall market sentiment remains cautious but with a tentative undercurrent of optimism around potential U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan.
Commodity Watch — 2026-04-27
Today's Price Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | $94.88/bbl | +0.51% | up |
| Brent Crude | $105.33/bbl | +0.25% | up |
| Natural Gas | $2.523/MMBtu | -3.48% | down |
| Gold | $4,725.10/t.oz | -0.33% | down |
| Silver | $75.685/t.oz | -0.95% | down |
| Copper | $6.028/lb | +0.02% | up |
| Wheat | 616.25¢/bu | -0.08% | down |
| Corn | 463.50¢/bu | -0.05% | down |
Top Stories
U.S. and Iran Expected to Hold Talks in Pakistan — Oil Dips on Hope
Oil prices remained volatile but held broadly elevated levels as reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran are expected to convene fresh negotiations in Pakistan. The talks come after a previous round of negotiations fell apart, and markets are pricing in a cautious but real possibility of a ceasefire framework. WTI crude slipped modestly intraday on the news before recovering, reflecting the push-pull between diplomatic optimism and ongoing Hormuz supply disruptions.
Reuters: Oil Ends Week Higher Despite Volatility — Supply Worries Dominate
Oil prices finished last week higher despite wild intraday swings, as traders weighed continued supply disruptions against the prospect of peace talks. The week's gains underscored how deeply the Iran conflict has entrenched a risk premium into energy markets. Analysts note that even partial Strait of Hormuz reopening scenarios are unlikely to fully normalise supply before Q3 2026.
S&P Global Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast by 700,000 bpd
S&P Global Energy has reduced its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 700,000 barrels per day, citing supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Iran war and a hit to Q2 demand. Consultant Ethan Ng noted that the conflict has upended traditional supply routes and weakened near-term consumption signals in affected regions. The downward revision reinforces the view that while prices are elevated on supply risk, the demand picture is also deteriorating.
Energy Markets
Oil markets remain the central commodity story of the week, with WTI crude trading near $94.88/bbl and Brent at $105.33/bbl as of Sunday. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues to act as the dominant force shaping energy prices. Iran's periodic closures and reopenings of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil flows — have created a structural supply risk premium that has kept Brent elevated above $100/bbl for weeks. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent could peak near $115/bbl in Q2 2026 before gradually easing as production shut-ins slowly abate.
Natural gas is moving in the opposite direction, sliding 3.48% to $2.523/MMBtu. European TTF gas also remains elevated — up 15.71% week-over-week at €44.86/MWh — largely due to LNG market tightness linked to Middle East disruptions. U.S. domestic natural gas storage, however, has been building, weighing heavily on Henry Hub prices. The divergence between European and U.S. gas prices reflects the asymmetric impact of the Iran conflict on LNG trade routes versus domestically-supplied U.S. markets.
MarketWatch reports that gas prices at the pump, while elevated, may still not be high enough for the Trump administration to soften its posture toward Iran — suggesting the energy price ceiling that might force diplomatic concessions has not yet been reached.
Precious Metals & Industrial
Gold remains in extraordinary territory, trading at $4,725.10/troy oz — up approximately 42% year-over-year — reflecting sustained safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainty, a weakened dollar in flight-to-quality episodes, and central bank accumulation. The metal dipped 0.33% on the day as diplomatic signals around Iran talks reduced the immediate fear premium slightly, though the broader uptrend remains intact.
Silver slid 0.95% to $75.685/oz. Silver's dual role as a monetary metal and industrial input has kept it highly correlated with gold while also being affected by global manufacturing sentiment. Copper, meanwhile, held nearly flat at $6.028/lb (+0.02%), up 8.85% over the past month — a sign that industrial demand expectations, particularly from China's manufacturing sector, remain relatively resilient despite the broader global uncertainty. Copper's year-over-year gain of 24.44% reflects tight mine supply conditions and electric-vehicle-related demand trends.
Agriculture
Wheat firmed slightly over the past week (+2.88% week-over-week), settling at 616.25¢/bu, as geopolitical tensions continue to generate supply anxiety in global grain markets. Corn was nearly flat at 463.50¢/bu. Notably, U.S. farmers face a significant input cost headwind: urea fertilizer prices have climbed 47% since the end of February, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions ripple through natural-gas-derived fertilizer supply chains. This is expected to weigh on planting economics for the 2026 crop season. Soybeans edged up 0.34% on the day to 1,163.75¢/bu.
What to Watch
- U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan: Outcome of reported negotiations could sharply reprice oil in either direction — a framework agreement would likely push WTI below $90; a breakdown could send Brent toward $115+.
- EIA Weekly Petroleum Inventories (expected mid-week): U.S. crude stock data will be closely watched for signs of tightening or relief from current supply constraints.
- Fed rate decision signalling: Any dovish signals from Fed officials could weaken the dollar and provide additional support to gold and commodities broadly.
- OPEC+ monitoring: Member states are watching Iran conflict developments; any emergency meeting or output decision would immediately move oil markets.
- U.S. crop planting progress report: USDA weekly crop progress data will be scrutinised given fertilizer cost pressures and potential acreage shifts across corn, wheat, and soy.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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