Commodity Watch — 2026-10-13

Today's Price Snapshot

1 sources

worldbank.org

worldbank.org

Top Stories

1 sources

eia.gov

eia.gov

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecasts to $90/bbl for December 2026

Goldman Sachs analysts have increased their oil price forecast for December 2026 to $90 per barrel, citing persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The bank pegs a worst-case scenario for 2027 at $125 per barrel, reflecting concerns over supply disruptions. This adjustment highlights the market's sensitivity to regional conflicts that threaten global energy flows.

EIA Projects Brent Crude to Average $105/bbl in Q4 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its global oil price forecast, now expecting Brent crude spot prices to average $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. This is a $14 increase from the previous month's outlook, driven by expectations of continued tight supply despite anticipated increases in Middle East production flows.

World Bank Warns of 24% Surge in Energy Prices

The World Bank's latest commodity report projects a 24% surge in energy prices this year, reaching the highest levels since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion. The shock is attributed to war in the Middle East, which has severely impacted global commodity markets. Non-energy indices also rose, with food prices up 3.8%.

Energy Markets

Oil markets are experiencing significant upward pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt supply chains. Goldman Sachs' revised forecast of $90/bbl for WTI crude in December 2026 underscores the market's bearish stance on supply stability. The discrepancy between WTI and Brent prices is noted as unusually low due to high US-Europe shipping costs, indicating logistical bottlenecks.

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) confirms this bullish trend, forecasting Brent crude to average $105/bbl in Q4 2026. While the EIA expects some recovery in production flows from the Middle East, the overall risk premium remains elevated. The World Bank corroborates this, noting that energy prices are projected to surge by 24% this year, driven by severe shocks from regional conflicts. These factors collectively suggest that energy costs will remain a dominant driver of inflationary pressure in the coming months.

Precious Metals & Industrial

Precious metals markets are showing signs of stabilization following earlier volatility. The World Bank reports that precious metals eased by 1.9% in its latest update, while base metals remained broadly stable with a marginal 0.4% increase. This suggests a rotation out of safe-haven assets as investors reassess global risk premiums.

Gold price forecasts indicate a cautious outlook, with analysts monitoring dollar strength and central bank activity closely. While specific daily price data for silver and copper is not explicitly detailed in the most recent headlines, the broader trend indicates that industrial demand remains resilient despite macroeconomic headwinds. The stability in copper prices aligns with the World Bank's data on non-energy indices, where raw materials edged up slightly by 0.9%.

Agriculture

Agricultural commodities are facing a complex mix of supply and demand factors. The World Bank notes that food prices rose by 3.8% in the non-energy index, while beverage prices declined by 4.6%. This divergence suggests that core staples like wheat and corn may be experiencing upward price pressure, potentially due to weather impacts or export constraints, although specific crop report data for this week is limited in the available sources.

Natural gas dynamics are indirectly affecting agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers. The American Gas Association reports that strong production and high storage inventories are shaping the U.S. natural gas outlook, which could stabilize fertilizer costs. However, the World Bank indicates that fertilizer prices increased by 0.4%, suggesting that any relief from gas markets has not yet fully translated to agricultural input costs.

What to Watch

• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Upcoming inventory data will be crucial for validating the bullish oil forecasts from Goldman and the EIA.
• Middle East Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation or de-escalation in the region will directly impact the oil risk premium and Brent crude prices.
• Fed Interest Rate Decisions: Monetary policy shifts will influence the dollar index, thereby affecting commodity prices denominated in USD.
• USDA Crop Progress Reports: New data on wheat and corn conditions will provide clarity on the upcoming harvest and potential supply tightness.