Daily News Roundup — April 1, 2026

Top Stories

Rupiah Hits Rp17,002; IHSG Drops Below 7,000

• What’s happening: The rupiah closed at Rp17,002 per USD on Monday (3/30), while the IHSG plummeted more than 1% to 6,945 at the opening bell. The dip was driven by a surging US dollar amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
• Why it matters: This slump highlights Indonesia's vulnerability to global sentiment. As a net oil importer, Indonesia is feeling the squeeze from soaring energy costs caused by the unrest in the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone is waiting to see how Bank Indonesia will step in to stabilize the currency.

Prabowo Meets Japanese Firms to Address Investment Hurdles

• What’s happening: President Prabowo Subianto invited Japanese business leaders to voice their concerns about investment barriers in Indonesia, doubling down on his promise to keep the country open for business.
• Why it matters: The meeting comes as Japan and Indonesia work to bolster energy security, especially with fears that the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil and gas supplies. It's a key signal to investors that the government is trying to maintain stability despite the market pressure.

Japan and Indonesia Team Up for Energy Security

• What’s happening: With the Iran-US war threatening the Strait of Hormuz, Japan and Indonesia are deepening their economic and energy ties.
• Why it matters: As ASEAN’s largest economy and a major energy importer, Indonesia needs a reliable supply chain. This partnership is vital now that the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial artery for global tankers—is in the crosshairs.

Editorial: Time to Stop Talking — Call for Anti-Corruption Action

• What’s happening: In an editorial titled "Enough talking," The Jakarta Post is pushing President Prabowo to set up a clear, time-bound task force to tackle high-level corruption. The goal is to stop these cases from getting lost in bureaucratic infighting.
• Why it matters: The public is getting restless with the slow pace of corruption investigations. If the President is serious about targeting "the highest actors," the paper argues he needs a concrete mechanism that isn't derailed by institutional power struggles.

Indonesia Sets Coal Production Target at 580 Million Tons

• What’s happening: The government has greenlit a 580-million-ton coal production plan, marking an increase after previously considering a cut from last year’s 790-million-ton target to help manage oversupply.
• Why it matters: It’s a strategic pivot. While there's pressure to diversify energy, the Iran conflict is driving up global energy prices, which could actually give a boost to Indonesian coal exports.

Indonesia Pushes Downstream Strategy to Boost Value

• What’s happening: The government is doubling down on its downstream strategy to increase the value of local commodities, improve energy self-reliance, and secure the food supply.
• Why it matters: This is a core part of Prabowo’s agenda to move beyond just exporting raw materials and grow a more sophisticated, high-value economy. It’s essential for Indonesia if it wants to climb higher in the global value chain.

Economy & Business

Rupiah Under Pressure: Forecasts Sit at Rp16,975–17,100

Analysts see the rupiah trading between Rp16,880 and Rp17,100 this week. Trading Economics suggests it might land around Rp16,975 by the end of Q1 2026. The slide is being fueled by a strong US dollar and general nervousness across emerging markets due to the Middle East situation.

Why the IHSG Slipped Below 7,000

The IHSG opened at 6,955 on Monday and eventually hit 6,945. Analysts point to three culprits: the surging US dollar, rising global oil prices due to the Iran-US conflict, and foreign investor worries about Indonesia's growth prospects under current fiscal pressure. It’s just another challenge for a market that's been struggling since the start of the year.

Palm Oil Prices: OLE at Rp19,685/kg, CPO at Rp15,712/kg

As of March 30, crude palm oil prices remain a hot topic. OLE is trading at Rp19,685/kg, up slightly from last week, while KPB Nusantara CPO for delivery to Dumai/Belawan/Kotajaya is at Rp15,712/kg. These figures are crucial for Indonesia, given its role as the world’s top exporter.

World News

Iran-US Conflict: Trump Claims Iran Is Nearing a Deal

President Trump claims Iran has agreed to "most" of the US's 15-point demand list to end the war, though Tehran remains skeptical. Meanwhile, Iran has issued stern warnings against a US ground invasion. Reports suggest the US is eyeing the seizure of Kharg Island—a key Iranian oil hub—while Tehran has allowed 20 cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Takeaway for Indonesia: As a major oil importer relying on that strait, any major shift here hits our fuel prices and the rupiah directly.

Iranian Missile Sites Under Heavy Pressure

Satellite imagery reveals major damage to Iran’s ballistic missile production and launch facilities after weeks of airstrikes. Meanwhile, Houthi forces in Yemen are still firing drones and missiles toward southern Israel. It’s clear that despite some diplomatic talk, the conflict is far from over.

Pentagon Deploys 2,000 Airborne Troops to the Middle East

The Pentagon is sending 2,000 airborne troops to the region to give President Trump more military options. The deployment follows a 15-point proposal sent to Iran via Pakistan, which is currently acting as a diplomatic mediator. This military buildup is raising fears that the conflict could widen, further disrupting the global energy supply.

Quick Analysis

Caught in the Crossfire: Rupiah and IHSG Under Pressure Indonesia is finishing Q1 in a tight spot. The weak rupiah and the falling IHSG aren't just technical glitches—they show how exposed Indonesia is as an oil importer. Bank Indonesia will likely use its forex reserves to prop up the currency, but in the long run, the country needs to diversify energy sources to break its reliance on volatile external markets.

Prabowo’s Energy Diplomacy: A Smart Move at the Right Time The Japan-Indonesia energy partnership couldn't have come at a better time. With the Strait of Hormuz in trouble, finding new energy routes is essential. If the government can follow through with concrete regulations, this could bring some much-needed investment into renewables and infrastructure.

Keep an Eye On

• Currency and Market Stability: Watch to see if Bank Indonesia intervenes further as the rupiah continues to struggle.
• The Iran-US Situation: Verify the details of the 15-point deal. With 2,000 US troops deployed, any escalation could hit energy prices immediately.
• Japanese Investment: Look for news on specific projects or commitments following Prabowo’s recent meetings.
• Anti-Corruption Efforts: Keep tabs on whether the government actually follows through on the call for a transparent, time-bound investigation into high-level corruption.