Daily Digest — April 3, 2026

🇧🇷 Brazil in the Spotlight

Marina Silva leaves the Ministry of Environment to run for Congress

• What happened: Minister Marina Silva has resigned from her post as Environment Minister in the Lula administration to run for a legislative seat in the October 2026 elections. Silva was one of the most internationally recognized figures in the administration.
• Why it matters: Her departure creates a strategic vacuum during a delicate political period. The Environment Ministry holds massive international visibility—especially regarding the Amazon—and finding a successor of her caliber before the campaign season will be a challenge for the Planalto.

U.S. nears conclusion of trade investigation that could lead to sanctions against Brazil

• What happened: The Trump administration has notified Lula’s government officials that it is nearing the final stages of a major trade investigation opened against Brazil in 2025. The process could lead to new sanctions or tariffs on Brazilian goods.
• Why it matters: The investigation adds pressure to an already tense relationship between Brasília and Washington. In an election year, any U.S. trade penalties could have major repercussions for the economy and domestic political discourse, affecting exports and the value of the real.

Lula’s economic team discusses ways to lower household debt

• What happened: According to Bloomberg, the government's economic team has begun talks with banks on measures to reduce household debt in Brazil, following a direct request from the Planalto Palace. The topic gained traction after Lula publicly voiced his concern regarding the credit situation for families.
• Why it matters: High household debt is considered a major drag on domestic consumption. The discussion comes amid doubts about the economic strategy less than seven months before the election and could signal new stimulus measures later in 2026.

Lula confirms Alckmin as his running mate for October elections

• What happened: President Lula officially confirmed that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will be his running mate for the October 2026 elections, repeating the ticket that won in 2022. The announcement was made on Tuesday, March 31.
• Why it matters: The confirmation of the ticket is a sign of stability for the government amid growing opposition pressure. Alckmin plays a key role in coordinating with the political center and the business community—groups Lula will need to mobilize for a victory in October.

💰 Economy and Markets

Dollar falls to R$ 5.15 and Ibovespa rises on hopes of a war truce

• On April 1, the dollar fell 0.43%, closing at R$ 5.1566, while the Ibovespa rose 0.26%, hitting 187,953 points. The move was driven by rumors of a ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war that circulated during trading—rumors later contradicted by Trump himself (see international section).

Oil spikes after Trump dismisses a deadline for the Iran war

• Following Trump’s statement on the night of April 2, where he claimed the U.S. "hasn't even started" destroying what's left in Iran and provided no timeline for the conflict to end, oil prices surged again. Higher barrel prices pressure global inflation and complicate the scenario for the Brazilian Central Bank, which only began its Selic rate-cutting cycle in March with a modest 0.25 percentage point cut (Selic currently at 14.75%).

🌍 Global News

Trump says U.S. "hasn't even started" to destroy what’s left in Iran

• What happened: In a live address on the night of April 2, President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric regarding the war against Iran, stating the U.S. could still target Iranian bridges and power plants. Iran continues to carry out drone and missile attacks against Gulf countries and Israel. Meanwhile, the U.S. Embassy in Iraq has issued an alert for American citizens to leave the country "now."
• Connection to Brazil: The continuation and escalation of the war keep oil prices high, pressuring global inflation. For Brazil—a large importer of refined products and exporter of commodities—the scenario is mixed: costlier barrels benefit Petrobras, but it makes fuel and logistics more expensive domestically.

UK gathers 35 countries to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• What happened: The British government hosted talks with representatives from 35 countries to attempt to coordinate diplomatic and military efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments. The channel has been under threat since the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran began.
• Connection to Brazil: The Strait of Hormuz is essential for the oil flow that supplies Asia and Europe. A prolonged interruption keeps barrel prices high, which directly affects energy and transport costs in Brazil and the global supply chain.

🔬 Tech and Science

Google expands AI Pro plan with 5 TB of storage

• Google announced an upgrade to its AI Pro subscription plan ($19.99/month): storage has increased from 2 TB to 5 TB. The announcement was confirmed by Google One chief Shimrit Ben-Yair. The move makes Google more competitive against Microsoft and Apple plans that also combine AI and cloud storage—services increasingly used by Brazilian companies and users.

👀 Watch list

1. Marina Silva’s successor at the Ministry of Environment — Choosing the new minister will be a political test for Lula; the role has massive international impact (especially regarding the Amazon), and the name chosen will signal government priorities in an election year.
2. Outcome of the U.S. trade investigation against Brazil — Washington indicated it is in the final stages. A decision to impose tariffs or sanctions could come soon and would have a direct impact on Brazilian exports and the exchange rate.
3. Oil trajectory and the next Copom — With Trump escalating the war in Iran and oil prices rising again, the Brazilian Central Bank will have to evaluate whether to maintain its timid pace of Selic rate cuts (currently 14.75%) or pause the easing cycle.