Resumo do dia — 1º de abril de 2026

Manchetes

Flávio Bolsonaro ties with Lula in latest polls

• What happened: According to a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has gained enough ground to tie with President Lula in a simulated runoff. Advisors say his improved polling numbers have bought him some time to delay naming his economic team.
• Why it matters: His rise cements the right-wing presence in the race with less than six months to go before the October elections. As other candidates enter the field, the race is becoming increasingly fragmented and unpredictable for the markets.

Lula pushes for campaign activity; cabinet shuffle expected

• What happened: Reports from Folha de S.Paulo indicate that half of Lula's cabinet is expected to step down as the government reorganizes to free up personnel for the upcoming election campaign. Lula has made it clear he expects his allies to be active on the front lines this October.
• Why it matters: This mass departure could temporarily hinder the government's ability to execute policies, especially while the Middle East conflict continues to drive up prices and inflation remains above target.

Ethanol provides buffer against global oil shocks

• What happened: With the war in Iran rattling global oil markets, Brazil is finding itself uniquely insulated. Thanks to its widespread use of flex-fuel vehicles and massive sugarcane ethanol production, drivers have a cheaper, cleaner alternative to gasoline.
• Why it matters: While other nations struggle with surging fuel costs, millions of Brazilian drivers can simply switch to ethanol, helping to protect family budgets and mitigate inflation.

Trump targets Isfahan as Middle East tensions explode

• What happened: The U.S. has used bunker-buster bombs in Isfahan, with Trump threatening to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal isn't reached. Iran retaliated by attacking a tanker near Dubai and firing cluster munitions at Israel.
• Why it matters: This escalation significantly increases the risk of a broader conflict, which could disrupt global shipping routes and further impact oil prices, ultimately affecting Brazil's foreign trade and inflation outlook.

Renewable energy sector faces layoffs and cutbacks

• What happened: Renewable energy firms like Atlas Renewable Energy and Voltalia are cutting jobs and scaling back operations in Brazil following grid-related restrictions on wind and solar power.
• Why it matters: Even though Brazil is a global leader in clean energy, technical "curtailment" issues are making projects unviable and scaring off investors just when the country needs to be expanding its green energy capacity.

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Cláudio Castro's resignation triggers Rio leadership crisis

• What happened: Following the resignation and conviction of Rio de Janeiro Governor Cláudio Castro, the state is now facing a leadership vacuum, as reported by Folha de S.Paulo.
• Why it matters: This political crisis comes just months before the general election, complicating the outlook for government-aligned parties in Brazil's most populous state in the Southeast.

Economia e mercados

Central Bank sees inflation above target through 2028

The Central Bank projects that Brazilian inflation will rise again by the end of 2026. Even with a projected cooling in 2027, inflation is expected to remain above the 3% target until at least the third quarter of 2028, with the war in the Middle East adding significant pressure on energy prices and the exchange rate.

Wind and solar sectors struggle with grid constraints

Renewable energy companies in Brazil are suffering losses due to grid dispatch restrictions. Major players like Atlas Renewable Energy and Voltalia have already started layoffs and operational cuts. This highlights the growing tension between the country's decarbonization goals and the financial sustainability of its energy projects.

Ethanol: A structural advantage in a volatile oil market

With oil prices under pressure from the war in Iran, analysts point out that Brazil’s massive flex-fuel fleet gives it a competitive edge. Since drivers can easily switch to sugarcane ethanol, the country is better positioned to shield its domestic economy from the worst of the global price shocks.

Pelo mundo

Trump-Iran conflict escalates with new attacks

On March 31, the U.S. deployed bunker-buster bombs in Isfahan, and Trump threatened to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran hit back by attacking a Kuwaiti tanker near Dubai, causing a fire and an oil spill risk. They also launched cluster munitions at Israel and threatened to target U.S. university campuses in the region.

UN sounds alarm on Lebanon and Sudan

The UN Secretary-General has urged all parties in Lebanon to respect international law and protect humanitarian personnel. Meanwhile, the UN expressed deep concern over attacks on civilians in Sudan and rising hurdles to delivering humanitarian aid in the country.

Iran warns against U.S. ground invasion; regional talks in Pakistan

An Iranian official has warned that any U.S. ground invasion—which they claim is the next step in the conflict—will be met with force. Regional powers are currently meeting in Pakistan, desperate to find a diplomatic off-ramp for a war that has now dragged on for over 30 days.

Tecnologia e inovação

No public data available regarding new technology or innovation stories as of March 31, 2026.

Fique de olho

1. Flávio Bolsonaro’s economic team: With the candidate now polling neck-and-neck with Lula, how he handles his economic team will be a major litmus test for investors and the public.

2. U.S.-Iran negotiations: While Trump claims Iran has agreed to "most" U.S. demands, Tehran is still pushing back. Whether this leads to a diplomatic breakthrough or more violence will heavily influence global markets and the Brazilian Real.

3. Renewables policy: With no clear regulatory response yet, the wind and solar sectors are looking for any sign from the Ministry of Mines and Energy or ANEEL regarding relief for grid-dispatch restrictions.