Global Stock Market Trends — 2026-10-02

Global Indices at a Glance

Based on trading on September 30 (U.S.) and October 1-2. Korean indices reflect the closing price on October 1, and U.S. reflects September 30.

🇰🇷 South Korean Stock Market

KOSPI / KOSDAQ Overview

The South Korean stock market recorded strong gains on the first trading day of October. The KOSPI closed up 1.95% at 6,971.35, fueled by net buying from institutional investors, while the KOSDAQ recovered a sharp drop of over 4% to remain slightly positive. Concerns over rising U.S. long-term Treasury yields persist, but buying centered on tech stocks like semiconductors led the market.

Supply and Demand Trends

• Institutions: Net buyers (led the KOSPI increase)
• Foreigners: Net sellers (shifted due to rising U.S. interest rates)
• Individuals: Net buyers (participated in some bargain hunting)

Today's Leading Sectors & Stocks

• Semiconductors & IT: Up — Delivered positive signals from U.S. tech strength
• Shipbuilding & Nuclear Power: Up — Energy price increases and state project expectations
• Financials: Slight increase — Profit margin improvements anticipated in a rate-hike environment

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asiae.co.kr

asiae.co.kr

🇺🇸 U.S. Stock Market

Major Indices Close (September 30)

U.S. stocks finished mixed. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.24% to 26,861, while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,652, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.86% to 50,908. The market welcomed positive news that the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index came in lower than expected, but profit-taking emerged as long-term Treasury yields surged to over 5.3%, near a 24-year high. Tech stocks showed relative strength by withstanding further declines.

Today's Key Movements

• Tech Group: Upward trend — AI-related optimism and chip demand momentum resurfaced
• Financials: Mixed — Crossing rate-hike profits with economic slowdown concerns
• Energy: Slight increase — Inflation premium stemming from long-term rate hikes

Sector Trends

While the tech sector supported the market, financials and energy showed mixed results due to the dual effects of rising interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finished at 5.298%, keeping pressure on economically sensitive stocks.

🌏 Asian and European Stock Markets

Asia (Japan, China, Hong Kong)

Asian stock markets maintained a mixed trend. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.43%, and mainland China's CSI 300 climbed 0.29% to 4,357.62. Japan's Nikkei index shook off U.S. rate-hike pressure to show strength in tech shares. Overall, expectations for improved profitability in semiconductors and AI supported the market despite interest rate concerns.

Europe (UK, Germany, France)

Europe's pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.71%, and the UK and German indices also posted modest gains. As rising U.S. rates influenced global capital flows, European equities remained defensive.

📊 Today's Market Drivers

• PCE Inflation Slowdown vs. Rate Surge Paradox: August PCE fell short of expectations at 3.7%, signaling slowing inflation, but the market interpreted this as a sign of economic strength, causing long-term rates to spike. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward the 5.3% range, hovering near a 24-year high.

• Strong ADP Employment Data: September private employment increased by 90,000, significantly beating the consensus estimate of 68,000. This raises bullish expectations for Friday's official U.S. employment report (NFP), and strong employment figures could lead to a reassessment of potential Fed rate hikes.

• Diverging Momentum Between Tech and Value: Following the third-quarter AI slump, tech stocks rebounded on August earnings improvements and AI monetization signals, but soaring interest rates placed downward pressure on high-growth valuations. The market is struggling to find a balance between rates and tech.

• Strategic Buying by Korean Institutions: Despite rising U.S. rates, Korean institutions engaged in net buying centered on semiconductors and IT, which is interpreted as a reevaluation of the relative value of Asian tech stocks.

🔭 What to Watch Next

Key Events This Week

• October 4 (Friday): U.S. September Employment Report (NFP) — Release of unemployment rate, non-farm payroll growth, and wage growth. The market may reinterpret strong employment and wage gains as signals for base rate hikes.
• 2nd Week of October: U.S. Q3 Earnings Season Begins in Earnest — Sequential announcements from banking, energy, and tech sectors to reassess economic outlooks.
• ECB Policy Meeting Imminent — Observation of potential further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

Investor Checklist

• Need to reassess whether U.S. interest rate hikes will continue and evaluate Fed policy directions.
• Re-examine valuation risks for tech stocks ahead of entering earnings season.
• Track the impact of shifting global capital flows on Korean and Asian tech stocks.

💬 One-Line Insight

A tug-of-war phase where rate concerns shake the market, but tech strength and strategic institutional buying support the downside — Friday's U.S. employment report will determine the short-term direction.