Global Morning Briefing — 2026-07-11

Market Snapshot

US Market Closing Review

On Thursday, July 9, US stocks finished higher, led by semiconductor and memory stocks. The Nasdaq Composite was propelled by strength in the chip sector, while the S&P 500 also clocked a weekly gain as it neared record highs. The Dow Jones initially showed weakness but recovered in subsequent sessions.

Investors focused on tech stocks despite fresh airstrikes between the US and Iran, with falling oil prices partially boosting sentiment. However, the 30-year Treasury auction saw the highest yield in nearly 20 years, pressuring the market amid rising bond supply and persistent inflation concerns.

Key Stocks Today

Gainers

• Semiconductor and Memory Stocks: The main sector driving Nasdaq performance, with companies like Broadcom leading the rally.
• Defense Stocks: Rallied on concerns over increased defense spending due to heightening US-Iran tensions.

Losers

• Rate-Sensitive Sectors: Growth and undervalued stocks faced pressure due to the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields.

Macro & Economic Indicators

• 30-Year Treasury Auction: Thursday’s auction hit the highest yield in nearly two decades, signaling that investors are demanding higher returns on government debt due to increasing supply.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Near 4.60%: Yields spiked following former President Trump's statement that the Iran truce had ended, reflecting stronger bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes.

• Rising US-Iran Tensions: Former President Trump declared the temporary truce "over," and both sides exchanged new airstrikes, directly impacting global oil prices and gold.

Global Top News (Market Impact)

US-Iran Military Tensions Resurface, Threatening Strait of Hormuz

• What happened: After former President Trump announced the US-Iran truce was "over," the two sides exchanged airstrikes. Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, sparking concerns over global oil supply routes.
• Market implications: Oil prices remain around $76 with weekly gains, while shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped sharply. This means higher energy import costs for Korea and potential benefits for shipbuilding and defense, but also a resurgence in inflation risks.

30-Year Yields Hit 20-Year High, Bond Supply Crisis Deepens

• What happened: Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction recorded the highest yield in nearly 20 years as rising supply and inflation fears forced investors to demand higher returns.
• Market implications: Borrowing costs in the US are surging, strengthening the dollar and pressuring emerging market assets (including the Korean Won). Growth and rate-sensitive sectors may face further corrections.

Nasdaq Semiconductor Rally, Tech Momentum Continues

• What happened: Semiconductor and memory chip companies led the Nasdaq on Thursday and Friday, pushing the S&P 500 to record levels. Strength in firms like Broadcom is key.
• Market implications: A positive environment for foreign investment in Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) may continue, suggesting robust demand for AI and advanced chips. However, rising yields remain a burden for high-valuation tech stocks.

Weekly Oil Gain, Supply Threats and Inflation Resurgence

• What happened: WTI crude traded at $76.6, recording a weekly gain due to Hormuz supply concerns, recovering from last week's sharp drop. Global markets are bracing for prolonged Middle East instability.
• Market implications: Potential for renewed inflation pressure on Asian energy importers, possible rises in gasoline and electricity prices in Korea, and momentum for energy-related stocks (refineries, LNG terminals).

Korea Market Checkpoints

The strength of US semiconductors is likely to encourage positive foreign capital inflows into the KOSPI IT sector (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix). However, the surge in 10-year yields (near 4.60%) deepens the high-interest-rate environment, exerting downward pressure on the Won and emerging market assets. Rising oil prices risk worsening the trade balance due to higher import costs, but serve as a positive signal for defense stocks (like Hanwha Ocean). Watch movements in overnight futures (SK Hynix ADR) and the USD/KRW exchange rate (resistance around 1,250 won).

Watch List

• Economic Indicators/Events: Evaluation of potential additional Federal Reserve rate hikes; upcoming Chinese growth data.
• Earnings: Guidance from major companies in the semiconductor and tech sectors.
• Fed/Policy Events: Signals regarding Federal Reserve policy shifts and inflation response strategies.
• Risk Factors: Oil price spikes (over $80/barrel) due to escalated US-Iran conflict; potential for US 30-year yields to exceed 5%.

Investor Action Items

1. Morning Market Strategy: Watch whether semiconductor momentum from the US carries over to the KOSPI IT sector, while staying alert to the dual pressure of a strong dollar and long-term interest rate hikes.
2. Key Sectors/Stocks: (1) Semiconductor/AI (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) — expectation of foreign buying vs. interest rate burdens; (2) Defense/Energy (Hanwha Ocean, refineries) — positive signals from oil/geopolitics; (3) Financials — margin improvement amid rate spikes.
3. Risk Management: If Hormuz supply threats worsen and oil hits $80 or US 30-year yields breach 5%, a global risk-on reversal is possible. Also, monitor the potential for foreign net selling due to a weakening Korean Won.