Global Morning Briefing — July 26, 2026

Market Snapshot at a Glance

US Market Closing Review

Last week, the US stock market saw mixed results amidst a wave of tech stock weakness. The Nasdaq Composite closed the week in negative territory, driven by concerns over AI capital expenditures (capex) and falling share prices for chipmakers ahead of major tech earnings reports.

A mid-session rebound was observed on Friday (July 24), primarily driven by a sharp drop in oil prices. As Brent crude fell from its peak above $100 per barrel to under $95, concerns over energy-related inflation eased significantly. This helped the Dow Jones stage a rebound, though the Nasdaq remained weak. Trading volume stayed volatile as the earnings season progressed.

Key Stocks Today (Based on latest available data)

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Leading Risers

• Intel (INTC) — Positive Earnings Signal: Showed partial strength following last week’s earnings report, with AI server demand momentum partially recognized.
• SAP — Earnings Beat: Signals restored investor confidence following better-than-expected profits from the European software company.
• American Express (AXP) — Financial Strength: Outlook for improved profitability among payment companies amid expectations of easing inflation due to falling oil prices.

Leading Fallers

• Semiconductor Index — Broad decline: General weakness across chipmakers. AI capex concerns and anxieties over profitability at large tech firms are pressuring the sector. Major chip designers like Nvidia saw share prices drop.
• Nasdaq Tech Stocks (General) — Persistent Weakness: Profit-taking ahead of major tech earnings and downward adjustments to growth evaluations.

Macro & Economic Indicators

• Crude Oil Price Drop (Brent): Prices fell from over $100/bbl to below $95. This is interpreted as a sign of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stabilized supply routes. The premium has shrunk due to discussions regarding potential US-Iran negotiations.

• 10-year US Treasury Yield: Continues to trend upward due to the reduction in geopolitical premiums. Although previous week’s CPI and PPI data suggested cooling inflation, oil price volatility continues to impact long-term yields.

• Geopolitical Risks: Four global supply hubs are simultaneously affected: the Middle East (Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait), attacks on Russian infrastructure in Ukraine, and the Suez Canal route. These are acting as major variables in oil price volatility.

Global Top News (By Market Impact)

Geopolitical Premium Shrinks Sharply Amid Oil Price Plunge

• What happened: Brent crude fell from over $100/bbl to below $95. A combination of potential US-Iran negotiation talks and signs of stabilization in Middle East supply routes drove this movement, sharply reversing the steep oil price spike of the previous two weeks (which stemmed from simultaneous tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Ukraine-Russia front).
• Market Implication: A signal for improved current account and inflation in Korea due to lighter energy import costs. However, volatility remains high, requiring close monitoring of weekend oil price trends. Relief is expected for the earnings pressure on oil importers and petrochemical firms.

Big Tech Earnings Week, AI Capex Concerns Lead Nasdaq Weakness

• What happened: Major tech companies are set to report earnings at the end of this week. Investors will focus on the sustainability of AI server demand and the future profitability of GPU and chip designers. The current weekly negative for the Nasdaq reflects the sentiment that "good news was already priced in."
• Market Implication: Direct impact on KOSPI tech stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, etc.) and semiconductor materials/equipment suppliers. If Nasdaq weakness persists, it will exert downward pressure on Korean tech exporters. Attention is on re-evaluating earnings guidance for the semiconductor and secondary battery sectors.

European Stock Market Attempts Rebound on Falling Oil Prices

• What happened: European markets saw a partial rebound as energy cost burdens lightened. However, UK and EU industries are raising concerns about weakened competitiveness due to new tariff threats from the Trump administration.
• Market Implication: While there is potential for a relative improvement in Korean export competitiveness in EU/UK markets, increased global trade uncertainty remains a long-term export risk.

Asia-Pacific Markets Sell Off AI-Related Stocks

• What happened: Asian markets saw a slump last week due to a mass sell-off of AI-related tech stocks, a direct ripple effect of Nasdaq's weakness.
• Market Implication: A high likelihood of continued weakness for the Korean KOSDAQ (tech/AI-related firms) and secondary battery/semiconductor subcontractors. The KOSPI and KOSDAQ openings on Monday are expected to be significantly influenced by weekend movements in the US market.

Korean Market Checkpoints

The dual impact of the Nasdaq's weekly negative trend and the sharp drop in oil prices is expected to dictate the movement of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ on Monday.

• KOSPI: While lower oil prices are a positive for import costs, the weight of tech weakness (Samsung, SK) is likely to be heavier. Banking/Financial stocks may show partial strength on oil recovery sentiment.
• KOSDAQ: Concerns persist regarding weakness in AI and semiconductor material/equipment suppliers. The sell-off sentiment from Nasdaq tech stocks may translate directly.
• Won-Dollar Rate: Improved sentiment for foreign exchange reserves due to falling oil prices, increasing pressure for a stronger Won. However, volatility remains as the US-Korea interest rate gap persists.
• Semiconductor/Secondary Battery: Issues with re-evaluating earnings guidance due to global demand concerns. Keep a close eye on the earnings season.

Watch List for Today

• Economic Indicators/Events: No additional economic indicators over the US weekend (Saturday/Sunday). Need to monitor the weekly economic calendar for Monday (July 29).
• Earnings Reports: Major tech earnings expected this week (July 26–29; check company disclosures for details). Focus especially on major AI players like Nvidia and Meta.
• Fed/Policy Events: No FOMC meeting scheduled. The market is in the process of re-evaluating the interest rate path following signals of slowing inflation.
• Risk Factors:
  1. Oil price volatility (potential to rise again if geopolitical situations worsen).
  2. Concerns over poor earnings for AI-related tech stocks (Nasdaq further weakness risk).
  3. New tariff announcements by the Trump administration (global trade uncertainty).

Investor Action Items

1. Morning Session Response: Monitor the dual phenomenon of "technical rebounds" vs. "earnings-driven weakness trends" in Korean tech stocks amidst the fallout from the US market. The reaction of semiconductor and secondary battery stocks right after the open will be critical. Monitor for sector rotation, as falling oil prices put pressure on energy-related stocks.

2. Sectors/Stocks to Watch:

   • Financial/Banking: Potential relative strength due to oil recovery sentiment + positive signs of cooling inflation.
   • Semiconductor/AI-related: Short-term correction concerns due to Nasdaq influence; currently in "wait and see" mode for earnings releases.
   • Chemical/Energy: Expectations for improved profitability ↑ due to the drop in oil prices.

3. Risk Management: As the Nasdaq is highly likely to re-enter a weak phase depending on oil price volatility and the outcome of the US earnings season, it is necessary to reset stop-loss levels for tech stock long positions. Diversified investment and sector rotation are essential to manage volatility.

[Final Check]: This briefing is based on the latest information from July 24–26, 2026. Due to the US market being closed over the weekend, real-time closing prices and specific figures may be limited. It is recommended to re-verify exact index and major stock movements after the market opens on Monday.