Global Morning Briefing: 이란 리스크와 미 증시 동향
4월 23일(현지시간) 미 증시는 이란과 휴전 균열 소식과 혼조된 실적 여파로 S&P 500이 7,109선에서 밀리며 소폭 하락했습니다. 중동 긴장 재고조로 국제유가가 다시 치솟으며 아시아 시장에도 변동성 우려가 커졌습니다. 오늘 한국 시장은 유가 상승에 따른 인플레 압력과 미·이란 관계를 예의주시하며 에너지 및 소재주 중심으로 움직일 것으로 보입니다.
Global Morning Briefing — 2026-04-24
Market Snapshot at a Glance
| Indicator | Closing/Current | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,109.14 | -16.92p (-0.24%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | — | -64.09p |
| Dow Jones | 49,442.56 | -4.87p (-0.01%) |
| Russell 2000 | Data unconfirmed | — |
| US 10Y Treasury Yield | Data unconfirmed | — |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | Data unconfirmed | — |
| WTI Crude Oil | Over $100 | Continued rise |
| Gold | Data unconfirmed | — |
| Bitcoin | Data unconfirmed | — |
US Market Closing Review
On Thursday, April 23, US markets closed slightly lower amidst signals of cracks in the Iran ceasefire and mixed corporate earnings. The S&P 500 fell 16.92 points (-0.24%) to 7,109.14, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 64.09 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 49,442.56, down 4.87 points (-0.01%), essentially ending flat.
After a strong run that saw the Nasdaq hit an all-time high the previous day, the mood shifted on the 23rd as Iran seized two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating its control over the passage. This provocative move suggested that the ceasefire unilaterally declared by the Trump administration is fraying, leading investors to re-price Middle East risks.
By sector, software stocks led the decline, while energy stocks showed relative strength due to the spike in oil prices. While corporate earnings were a focal point, the results were mixed, leading to a fragmented market.
Key Stocks Today
Gainers
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GEV (GE Vernova) — +12%: Surged on Wednesday, April 22, after reporting strong earnings driven by demand for AI-powered power infrastructure. It emerged as a key driver for the S&P 500 reaching record highs, with revenue in the AI power solutions sector significantly beating market consensus.
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Energy Sector Stocks — Strong: Energy stocks overall were relatively strong as WTI crossed the $100 per barrel mark. Iran’s display of control over the Strait of Hormuz and supply instability were the direct catalysts.
Losers
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Software Sector — Led the decline: Growth and software-centric tech stocks dipped due to renewed Iran risks and rising oil prices. CNBC analyzed that the combination of software weakness and rising oil prices dragged the indices down.
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Stocks with Mixed Earnings — Individual drops: Generally, with earnings reports coming in mixed, companies with disappointing guidance or weaker-than-expected results saw sharp individual declines.
Macro & Economic Indicators
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Inflationary Pressure from the Iran War: The March CPI released on April 10 was the first to reflect the impact of the war, showing inflation accelerating faster than expected. This dampened expectations for rate cuts by the Fed this year and put upward pressure on Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury yield rose by nearly 3bp, and WTI briefly topped $100 per barrel.
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IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) April Issue: In its April 2026 report, the IMF warned that global growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are returning under the shadow of war. Agile policy response and trade-off management regarding increased defense spending were presented as key challenges.
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WTI Crude Oil Over $100: International oil prices topped $100 per barrel again following the seizure of cargo ships by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns have been raised about the distortion of price signals as physical oil prices hit record highs while diverging from futures prices.
Top Global News (by market impact)
Iran Seizes Two Cargo Ships in Strait of Hormuz — Ceasefire Cracks Deepen
- What Happened: Despite the extension of the ceasefire unilaterally declared by President Trump, Iran seized two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Peace negotiations between the US and Iran are reportedly deadlocked.
- Market Implications: Instability in the Strait of Hormuz is a core variable for global oil supply. If oil prices rise further, it could lead to surging energy import costs and inflationary pressure in Korea. While refinery and energy stocks may see short-term gains, overall investment sentiment is likely to shrink.
S&P, Nasdaq close at records on Iran ceasefire extension, earnings | Reuters
Wall St ends close to all-time highs in light, post-holiday session | Reuters
Wall Street closes slightly down on renewed tensions between US, Iran | Reuters
S&P 500, Nasdaq push to closing records on optimism around Middle East talks, earnings | Reuters
Wall Street closes mixed, with signs of progress as Trump
Asian Markets Mixed — Sentiment Wanes on Oil Prices and US-Iran Stalemate
- What Happened: Asian markets were mixed on April 24, as the shaky Middle East ceasefire and the deadlocked US-Iran peace talks weighed on investors. India’s Sensex and Nifty 50 started the session down about 330 points.
- Market Implications: The Korean KOSPI is also likely to face early downward pressure. The semiconductor and IT sectors may feel the aftereffects of the US software sell-off, and sectors sensitive to energy costs, such as chemicals and airlines, require caution.
S&P, Nasdaq close at records on Iran ceasefire extension, earnings | Reuters
Wall St ends close to all-time highs in light, post-holiday session | Reuters
Wall Street closes slightly down on renewed tensions between US, Iran | Reuters
S&P 500, Nasdaq push to closing records on optimism around Middle East talks, earnings | Reuters
Wall Street closes mixed, with signs of progress as Trump
Short-term Demand Destruction vs. Long-term Oil Price Spike — Warning on Market Structure
- What Happened: According to Reuters, while blockades in the Strait of Hormuz are causing short-term demand destruction for oil, there is a paradoxical forecast that concerns over energy security and global fragmentation could drive up oil demand in the long term. The record divergence between physical and futures prices is shaking confidence in price signals.
- Market Implications: If the structural uncertainty in energy prices persists, it could put long-term downward pressure on the current account and the value of the won for oil-dependent countries like Korea. Increased import costs are also a burden for the Bank of Korea's monetary policy.
IMF Warns of "World Economy in the Shadow of War" — Growth Slowdown and Re-ignited Inflation
- What Happened: In the April 2026 WEO, the IMF officially warned of global growth slowing and inflation returning due to the war in Iran. It emphasized the importance of fiscal trade-offs related to surging defense spending and building a foundation for sustainable recovery.
- Market Implications: The IMF’s warning acts as a structural downward factor for global sentiment. The export-dependent Korean economy is directly in the path of this slowdown, increasing the likelihood of downward earnings revisions for major export sectors like semiconductors and autos.
Checkpoints for the Korean Market
Today, the KOSPI is likely to face downward pressure at the open, reflecting the slight decline in US markets and the overall weak sentiment in the Asian session. The fact that Indian markets fell about 330 points early on reflects a "risk-off" sentiment across Asia, and the won-dollar exchange rate may face upward pressure due to renewed Iran risks. Notably, the weakness in US software and tech stocks yesterday could negatively impact major semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while rising energy costs could hit the chemical and airline sectors hard. Conversely, refinery stocks (S-Oil, SK Innovation) could show relative strength as beneficiaries of higher oil prices. It is advisable to establish a response strategy after checking overnight futures trends and Samsung Electronics ADR prices.
Watch List
- Economic Indicators/Events: US Personal Income and Consumer Spending (including PCE inflation) release scheduled. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; market volatility could increase if the war-induced price pressure is reflected.
- Earnings Releases: The Q1 earnings season for major US firms continues; expect a stock-picking environment amid mixed results.
- Fed/Policy Events: Monitor remarks from Fed officials, specifically regarding the rate-cut path amidst inflation accelerated by the Iran war.
- Risk Factors: (1) Further Iranian provocations (potential for expanded blockade of the Strait of Hormuz) — a core trigger for further oil price spikes and a shift to global "risk-off." (2) Whether the US-Iran peace negotiations remain deadlocked — progress could lead to a relief rally, while a breakdown could trigger a sharp drop.
Investor Action Items
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Morning Response Strategy: Closely monitor Iran-related news headlines and WTI futures prices at the open. A "risk-off" strategy is valid if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, while looking for a relief rally is appropriate if there is news of ceasefire progress.
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Sectors/Stocks to Check: (1) Refineries (S-Oil, SK Innovation) — Beneficiaries of oil prices exceeding $100; short-term momentum is valid. (2) Semiconductors/IT (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) — Check for downward pressure from the US software sell-off and concerns over slowing global demand.
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Risk Management: Given the potential for sharp volatility driven by news headlines regarding the Iran war, it is wise to keep position sizes more conservative than usual. Considering the IMF's official warning on growth, refrain from over-weighting export-dependent sectors, and set clear stop-loss criteria for sectors directly exposed to rising energy costs (airlines, shipping, chemicals).
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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