Global Morning Briefing — 2026-05-03

Market Snapshot at a Glance

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US Market Review

On Friday, May 1, U.S. markets hit record closing highs for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, wrapping up a strong earnings season. Robust performance from big tech and large-cap stocks, combined with a decline in WTI crude oil prices—which had spiked to a 4-year high of $126 the day before—helped boost investor sentiment.

April’s performance was impressive. The S&P 500 surged over 10% in April, marking its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq saw its largest monthly gain since April 2020. The Dow also achieved its highest monthly gain since November 2024.

Markets marked their fifth consecutive week of gains. The primary driver was mega-cap companies exceeding expectations during the earnings season, while global bond and stock markets moved upward together as oil prices eased.

Key Stocks to Watch

Top Gainers

• TWLO (Twilio) — Gained: Climbed on an earnings surprise, surging in pre-market trading and emerging as a top weekly momentum pick.

• ROKU (Roku) — Gained: Prices rose following better-than-expected earnings and strong streaming ad growth, making it one of the top weekly movers.

• RDDT (Reddit) — Gained: Saw a strong response after quarterly results confirmed growth in ad revenue and user base.

• TEAM (Atlassian) — Gained: Driven by strong results in cloud subscription growth and expansion of enterprise clients.

• TSLA (Tesla) — Gained: Benefited from general market optimism and excitement surrounding EVs.

Top Decliners

• EL (Estée Lauder) — Declined: Mentioned as a key stock under pressure in pre-market, likely due to concerns over earnings or guidance.

• MU (Micron Technology) — Declined: Noted for weakness amid a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector.

Macro & Economic Indicators

• Fed Rate Decision (April 29): The Federal Reserve held rates steady but displayed a divided outlook on the future path. The oil price surge caused by the US-Iran conflict has complicated inflation forecasts, reducing expectations for interest rate cuts this year.

• Oil Price Volatility: WTI crude retreated after hitting a 4-year high of $126 on April 30. While the decline on May 1 helped equities, analysts warn investors that time is running out to prepare for a true oil shock.

• Japanese Yen Intervention: The Japanese Yen surged on April 30 following reports of authorities intervening in the foreign exchange market to defend the currency.

Global Top News

US-Iran War Standoff and Oil Shock Warnings

• The Situation: As the conflict between the US and Iran continues, oil prices spiked to $126 before retreating. Reuters notes that investors, distracted by the AI boom and expecting a "short war," are running out of time to hedge against real oil shocks.
• Market Implication: Renewed Middle East tensions directly impact energy, aviation, and shipping sectors. For countries highly dependent on oil imports, sustained price spikes could pressure battery and refining sectors.

April’s Record Rally — A "Contradictory Market"

• The Situation: CNN Business described it as a "contradictory month," where the S&P 500 hit record highs even as oil prices topped $100 and bond yields climbed. AI enthusiasm and big tech earnings have largely overshadowed inflation concerns.
• Market Implication: Continued momentum in AI and semiconductors may provide a positive tailwind for global IT and tech firms.

Japanese Yen Intervention

• The Situation: Reports suggest Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen, leading to a spike on April 30.
• Market Implication: A stronger yen could impact export competitiveness in Asia and create pressure on global carry trades.

Fed’s Divided Stance

• The Situation: The Fed held rates on April 29 but revealed internal disagreements regarding the balance between "war-induced inflation" and "economic slowdown."
• Market Implication: Reduced expectations for rate cuts pose valuation pressures on growth stocks.

Korea Market Checkpoints

With U.S. markets at all-time highs, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ are expected to start the first trading day of May on a positive note. Gains in AI and semiconductors in the U.S. will likely boost major domestic names like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. However, extreme oil price volatility and uncertainty regarding Fed rate cuts mean foreign investor sentiment and the USD/KRW exchange rate may remain volatile.

Watch List

• Economic Indicators/Events: Watch for Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Services Index data due later today.
• Earnings: The big tech earnings season is winding down, but focus on reactions to remaining S&P 500 results, including AAPL (Apple).
• Fed/Policy: Pay attention to public comments from Fed officials regarding inflation and the interest rate path.
• Risks: ① Middle East geopolitical escalation (threats to the Strait of Hormuz); ② Potential profit-taking after the market reached historic highs.

Investor Action Items

1. Morning Strategy: Prepare for a gap-up in the semiconductor sector (Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix) due to the U.S. rally. However, be cautious of chasing stocks if oil-related geopolitical headlines trigger intraday volatility.
2. Sectors to Monitor: IT/Semiconductor sectors for AI-led strength; Refining/Energy sectors for short-term trading opportunities or risks based on oil price movements.
3. Risk Management: In an environment where oil prices stay above $100 and rate-cut expectations are weak, keep position sizes conservative and consider hedging exposure in sensitive sectors like energy and aviation.