이란 협상 기대감·유가 100달러 속 글로벌 증시 상승
US equities extended their modest weekly gains on May 22 buoyed by expectations of US-Iran peace negotiations despite lingering war uncertainties. International crude prices held above $100 a barrel as the IEA chief warned that the oil market was approaching a "red zone," while long-term US Treasury yields continued climbing on inflation worries. South Korean markets face a crucial week as investors monitor global inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and the direction of the Iran crisis.
Market Snapshot at a Glance
| Indicator | Close/Current | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,353.61 | -49.44pt (-0.67%) |
| Nasdaq Composite | (as of May 19) | —Decline |
| Dow Jones | 49,363.88 | -322.24pt (-0.65%) |
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | Elevated levels | Inflation concerns reflected |
| WTI Crude Oil | $100+ | Iran crisis persists |
※ Final closing figures for May 22 (Friday) are still being compiled. The above figures are based on May 19 (Monday) close. The May 22 session closed amid a trend of eight consecutive weeks of gains.
US Market Close Review
On May 22 (Friday), US equities delivered a mixed session, balancing hopes for US-Iran peace talks against persistent uncertainties around Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions and crude oil staying above $100. Reuters reported that major European indices posted their largest weekly gain since early April, while US markets approached eight consecutive weeks of gains.
However, this uptrend unfolded in a challenging environment. During the previous session on May 21 (Thursday), a Reuters report citing Iran's supreme leader's hardline stance against exporting enriched uranium overseas triggered sell-offs in European equities and US futures, while oil prices surged.
The week prior, on May 19 (Monday), amid inflation concerns pushing Treasury yields higher, the S&P 500 dropped 49.44 points (-0.67%) to close at 7,353.61, while the Dow Jones fell 322.24 points (-0.65%) to 49,363.88, with the Nasdaq also declining.
Q2 2026 earnings season has entered its final phase. According to Motley Fool, the season concluded with the S&P 500 near all-time highs.
Wall Street ends lower on mounting inflation worries | Reuters
Wall St ends lower as inflation worries push up yields | Reuters
S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, notch weekly gains after earnings-heavy week | Reuters
Wall Street ends higher, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest monthly gains in years | Reuters
Nasdaq leads equity losses with oil, borrowing costs in focus | Reuters
Key Movers Today
Gainers (May 21–22 market basis)
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EL (Estée Lauder) — Premarket riser: Attracted investor attention, emerging as one of the top S&P 500 movers in Friday May 22 premarket trading.
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F (Ford) — Included among key S&P 500 gainers/losers on May 22 premarket.
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WDAY (Workday) — Surged in after-hours following earnings: WDAY, which reported results after May 21 close, gained investor attention in after-hours trading by meeting expectations.
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ROST (Ross Stores) — Major after-hours riser: Alongside WDAY, posted positive reactions in extended trading following May 21 earnings announcements.
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INTU (Intuit) — Among key gainers on May 22 (Thursday) session per ChartMill data.
Losers
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DECK (Deckers Outdoor) — Post-earnings decline in after-hours: Declined in extended trading following May 21 earnings release.
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ZM (Zoom Video) — After-hours weakness following May 21 earnings: Included in after-market major decliners list.
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LITE (Lemonade International) — Among key S&P 500 decliners during the May 21 (Wednesday) session.
Macro & Economic Indicators
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US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2007 High: As of May 19 (Monday), the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007. Investors are closely watching inflation fears stemming from the Iran war and the trajectory of peace negotiations.
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10-Year Yield Surges Post-PPI: Following the PPI data release on May 13, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest since July, with the 30-year yield breaching 5%. This backdrop has prompted traders to increase bets on potential Fed rate hikes.
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Q2 Earnings Season Winds Down — Three Key Takeaways: Motley Fool reported on May 22 that "Q2 2026 earnings season is nearly complete, and with markets at all-time highs, investors should know three key implications." Earnings surprise rates overall remained solid.
Global Top News (by market impact)
Iran's Supreme Leader: "No Enriched Uranium Exports" — Signals Negotiation Setback
- What happened: Iran's supreme leader Khamenei took a hardline stance, stating that Iran must not export its enriched uranium overseas. This directly contradicts a key US demand and emerges as a major stumbling block in US-Iran peace talks. Reuters' report of this stance triggered sell-offs in European equities and US futures on May 21 (Thursday), while oil prices surged.
- Market implications: If Iran negotiation uncertainties intensify, crude supply anxieties could deepen and inflation pressures mount, affecting South Korea's import prices and the refining/energy sector. Expectations for a deal drive short-term volatility in commodities and energy stocks.
Wall Street ends lower on mounting inflation worries | Reuters
Wall St ends lower as inflation worries push up yields | Reuters
S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, notch weekly gains after earnings-heavy week | Reuters
Wall Street ends higher, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest monthly gains in years | Reuters
Nasdaq leads equity losses with oil, borrowing costs in focus | Reuters
IEA Chief Warns: "Oil Market Approaching Red Zone" — Potential Supply Crisis by August
- What happened: The International Energy Agency (IEA) chief warned on May 21 that "global crude supplies could reach a critical point by August due to surging demand, low inventory levels, and declining Middle East exports." The Guardian linked this to prolonged Iran war. Reuters also ran an analysis piece stating that as long as the Iran war continues, "global markets could hit their limits within months."
- Market implications: Structural high crude prices are expected, posing risks of rising import prices and trade balance deterioration for South Korea's economy. Refining/energy sectors (S-OIL, SK Innovation) could benefit, while airlines and transport stocks face unavoidable cost pressures.
US-Iran Talks Boost Global Equities for Weekly Gain — Europe Posts Largest Weekly Rally Since Early April
- What happened: As of May 22 (Friday), buoyed by expectations of a US-Iran deal, European indices posted their largest weekly gain since early April, while US equities approached eight consecutive weeks of gains. However, Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions and crude prices above $100 remain as lingering uncertainty factors.
- Market implications: If Iran talks reach a conclusion, global risk-on sentiment could strengthen and positively impact the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. Conversely, a failed deal could reignite commodity price spikes and upward pressure on rates.
Wall Street ends lower on mounting inflation worries | Reuters
Wall St ends lower as inflation worries push up yields | Reuters
S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, notch weekly gains after earnings-heavy week | Reuters
Wall Street ends higher, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest monthly gains in years | Reuters
Nasdaq leads equity losses with oil, borrowing costs in focus | Reuters
30-Year US Treasury Yield Hits 2007 High — Inflation Fear Persists
- What happened: The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007. Accelerating inflation stemming from the Iran war is the backdrop; traders are now considering not just rate cuts but potential Fed hikes. Following the PPI release, 10-year yields hit their highest since July and 30-year yields broke above 5%.
- Market implications: The surge in US long-term rates exerts selling pressure across global bond markets and could push Korean Treasury yields higher. Growth and tech stocks face valuation headwinds; close attention is needed on chip stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in this environment.
South Korea Market Checkpoints
This week, global markets face a triple pressure: ①the direction of Iran nuclear negotiations, ②elevated US long-term yields, and ③oil prices staying above $100. As long as deal optimism persists, the KOSPI could limit downside; however, a failed deal would simultaneously trigger commodity spikes and upward rate pressure, sharply amplifying market volatility. High crude prices act as a near-term boost for refining/energy but a cost burden for airlines, transport, and chemical sectors. A high-rate, high-inflation backdrop weighs on growth stock valuations. The won/dollar exchange rate remains near recent highs as the dollar stays elevated, warranting attention to export-sensitive stock currency sensitivity.
Today's Must-Watch List
- Economic Data/Events: US May PMI and housing-related indicators expected. Continuous monitoring of Iran nuclear negotiation headlines.
- Earnings Reports: Continued market reaction tracking from WDAY (Workday) and ROST (Ross Stores) earnings releases.
- Fed/Policy Events: Market expectations around the Fed's rate path. Post-30-year yield 5% breach, monitor Fed statements and senior officials' commentary.
- Risk Factors: ①Iran talks collapse or further hardline statements ②additional spike in US Treasury yields (30-year settling above 5%) and resulting global risk-asset selloff pressure.
Investor Action Items
- Morning Session Positioning: Monitor Iran-related news headlines continuously to assess market direction. If deal optimism persists, it could limit downside across the KOSPI beyond energy/refining stocks alone.
- Sectors/Stocks to Watch: ①Energy/refining plays (high crude upside vs. deal-related downside risk) ②Semiconductors/tech (valuations under pressure if 30-year yields stay above 5% — track Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix closely). As US earnings season winds down, revisit Q2 surprise outperformers' price action.
- Risk Management: Iran negotiation uncertainty may drive near-term market volatility. Avoid excessive position concentration and employ a diversified strategy by simultaneously monitoring 30-year Treasury yields and WTI crude trends.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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