Global Morning Briefing: US Markets hit record highs
U.S. markets closed out the week strong on May 2, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time closing highs fueled by robust corporate earnings. While the rally is promising, the potential for an oil supply shock due to the Iran-U.S. conflict and fears of a Strait of Hormuz blockade remains a wildcard. As the global session kicks off, investors are watching for developments in the Middle East, Fed commentary, and key economic data.
Global Morning Briefing — 2026-05-04
Market Snapshot at a Glance
| Indicator | Close/Current | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Record Close (New High) | Weekly Gain |
| Nasdaq Composite | All-time Closing High | Weekly Gain |
| Dow Jones | Closed Higher | Gain |
| Russell 2000 | — | — |
| 10-Year US Treasury Yield | — | — |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | — | — |
| WTI Crude Oil | ~$116.10/barrel (Brent) | Slight weekly decline, near annual high |
| Gold | — | — |
| Bitcoin | — | — |
⚠️ As of the morning of May 4, real-time index figures are unavailable due to a loading error on Yahoo Finance. The following content is based on available data.
U.S. Market Closing Review
On Friday, May 1, U.S. markets wrapped up a strong week and month as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time closing highs. A solid corporate earnings season served as the primary engine for the gains, while a slight dip in oil prices helped buoy investor sentiment.
For the month of April, the S&P 500 recorded its largest monthly gain since November 2020, and the Nasdaq saw its biggest monthly rise since April 2020. The Dow Jones also posted its strongest monthly performance since November 2024. While the AI boom supported tech stocks, the market managed to offset concerns regarding oil prices—which hit four-year highs due to the Iran conflict—thanks to resilient company earnings.
As the first week of May begins, Thursday’s session at the end of April showed a similar pattern. Bond prices and stocks rose together, driven by a decline in oil prices and Japanese government intervention to support the yen. Investors maintained a risk-on stance, encouraged by strong earnings reports.
Key Stocks Today
Top Gainers
- RDDT (Reddit) — Higher: Highlighted as a key gainer in the May 1 pre-market; earnings-based momentum continues.
- ROKU (Roku) — Higher: One of the biggest movers as of April 30, rebounding on a positive earnings surprise.
- TWLO (Twilio) — Higher: Featured as a leading stock following its earnings announcement.
- RBLX (Roblox) — Higher: Joined the rally after posting better-than-expected earnings results.
Top Decliners
- Energy sector (Broad) — Profit-taking occurred in some energy stocks during the period of cooling oil prices. Oil had seen two consecutive weeks of gains before slightly retreating following Iran's rejection of a U.S. peace proposal.
Macro & Economic Indicators
-
Crude Oil (Brent): As of the morning of May 1, Brent crude was trading at $116.10/barrel, up $1.44 from the previous day and $53.46 higher than a year ago. Supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran-U.S. conflict are stoking inflation expectations, which in turn are dampening the outlook for Fed rate cuts.
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Fed Rate Cut Expectations: According to Bloomberg, concerns over inflation triggered by the start of the Iran-U.S. conflict on April 10 have pushed Treasury yields higher, diluting even the bets for a single rate cut this year. When oil prices dipped on April 30, some of these expectations were restored, helping bond prices recover.
-
Japanese Yen Intervention: Reports indicate the Japanese government intervened in the FX market on April 30 to support the yen, causing it to jump. This contributed to the synchronous rally in global bond and stock markets.
Top Global News (Impact-based)
Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz blockade — Investors lack time to prepare for a "Real Oil Shock"
- What happened: Reuters warned on May 1 that "investors are running out of time to prepare for a real oil shock." The analysis suggests that investors, intoxicated by the AI boom and record-high stock prices, have pinned their hopes on a quick end to the Iran conflict and haven't sufficiently hedged against a "doubling" scenario for oil prices.
- Market Implication: Korea, which is highly dependent on crude oil imports, could face rising import costs, inflationary pressure, and reduced leeway for the Bank of Korea to cut rates. This is a short-term positive for refineries and energy stocks (SK Innovation, S-Oil), but a cost burden for the airline and shipping sectors.
S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, notch weekly gains after earnings-heavy week | Reuters
Wall Street ends higher, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest monthly gains in years | Reuters
Dow closes higher on first day of 2026, still no Santa Claus rally | Reuters
Wall St ends close to all-time highs in light, post-holiday session | Reuters
Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings | Reuters
reuters.com
"Opening the Strait, or maybe not" — Status ahead of the May 4 Asia market open
- What happened: In the "Morning Bid" preview for European and global markets on the morning of May 4, Reuters highlighted that discussions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing but remain unresolved. Negotiating uncertainty persists after Iran's rejection of the U.S. peace proposal last week.
- Market Implication: Positive news regarding the Strait (signs of reopening) at the Asian market open could lower oil prices and put upward pressure on the KOSPI and Nikkei. Conversely, news of a breakdown in talks could trigger a rally in energy stocks and a broader market decline.
S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, notch weekly gains after earnings-heavy week | Reuters
Wall Street ends higher, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest monthly gains in years | Reuters
Dow closes higher on first day of 2026, still no Santa Claus rally | Reuters
Wall St ends close to all-time highs in light, post-holiday session | Reuters
Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings | Reuters
reuters.com
Paradoxically, the Iran conflict accelerates the global shift to clean energy — China is the biggest beneficiary
- What happened: The Guardian analyzed on May 3 that, despite Donald Trump’s anti-clean energy stance, the Iran conflict is accelerating the global transition away from oil and gas. China, as a leader in renewable energy manufacturing, is expected to see the largest secondary benefits.
- Market Implication: This acts as a mid-to-long-term momentum driver for domestic secondary battery and solar-related stocks (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, Hanwha Solutions, etc.), though concerns over intensifying competition with China also exist.
Warnings of a price collapse if the war ends after the oil boom
- What happened: Reuters Breakingviews (May 1) warned that if the Strait is reopened, the UAE might proceed with its 2027 goal of producing 5 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia following suit. This could lead to a price collapse and a delay in the energy transition following the current oil boom.
- Market Implication: Energy sector investors should consider both short-term gains and mid-to-long-term reversal risks. For refiners, the timing of profit realization during the current high-oil-price environment is a critical variable.
S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher, notch weekly gains after earnings-heavy week | Reuters
Wall Street ends higher, S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest monthly gains in years | Reuters
Dow closes higher on first day of 2026, still no Santa Claus rally | Reuters
Wall St ends close to all-time highs in light, post-holiday session | Reuters
Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings | Reuters
reuters.com
Korea Market Checkpoints
The record highs in the U.S. provide a positive signal for the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. In particular, the strong performance of semiconductors and tech stocks driven by the AI boom could create a favorable atmosphere for large-cap semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. However, with Brent crude remaining at the $116/barrel level and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, inflation pressure and weak won risks remain downside factors for Korea as an energy-importing nation. As suggested by the Reuters May 4 "Opening the Strait, or maybe not" morning preview, Middle Eastern negotiation results are the core variable for this week's Asian session and should be monitored alongside ADR and overnight futures trends.
Things to Watch Today
- Economic Indicators/Events: While May 4 (Monday) is not a U.S. holiday (it is the week before Memorial Day), it is the first trading day after Labor Day; monitor the aftermath of last week’s employment and inflation data. Check the schedule for Fed Chair and official speeches.
- Earnings Announcements: Check the schedule for this week's major earnings. While major reports from companies like TWLO, ROKU, RBLX, AAPL, EL, and RDDT concluded last week, additional reports should be checked.
- Fed/Policy Events: Verify the schedule for Fed official speeches. Updates on the Fed's view regarding the inflation path following the start of the Iran conflict will have a decisive impact on market rate-cut expectations.
- Risk Factors: (1) The outcome of Iran-U.S. negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz (bidirectional risk of positive/negative news); (2) Risk of global inflation reignition and the disappearance of Fed rate-cut expectations if oil prices surge again.
Investor Action Items
- Morning Session Response: Be sure to check the news flow regarding the Strait of Hormuz right before the Asian market opens. If positive (signs of opening), prepare for short-term profit-taking in energy stocks and a broad market rally; if negative (negotiation breakdown), strengthen defensive positions.
- Sectors/Stocks to Check: Semiconductors (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) — expectation of a trickle-down effect from strong earnings of major US tech firms based on the AI boom. Secondary batteries (LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI) — review momentum materials regarding accelerated clean energy transition due to the Iran conflict.
- Risk Management: In a high-oil-price environment with Brent at $116/barrel, the airline, transportation, and consumer goods sectors are vulnerable to cost pressure. Since a prolonged period of high oil prices also raises exchange rate risks (weak won), monitor foreign currency exposure.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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