Global Morning Briefing — 2026-05-02

Market Snapshot

U.S. Market Closing Review

April 30 (Thu) Close: The U.S. market ended April on a strong note. The S&P 500 rose 73.05 points (+1.02%) to 7,209.00, the Nasdaq Composite gained 219.07 points, and the Dow Jones added 790.33 points (+1.62%) to finish at 49,652.14. The S&P 500 surged over 10% in April, marking its largest monthly gain since November 2020. The Nasdaq also posted its best monthly performance in years.

May 1 (Fri) Close: On the first trading day of May, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs to end the week. Apple's surprise earnings and hopes for Middle East peace talks led the rally. The Dow Jones, however, saw a slight decline. Investors are also noting the historical "Sell in May" pattern, where markets typically struggle between May and October; since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged only about 2% gains during this period.

Earnings season has been the primary market driver, with strong results from big tech hyperscalers significantly easing fears over AI growth. The price of WTI crude oil also played a role, briefly topping $126 per barrel (a four-year high) before pulling back.

Top Stocks to Watch

Gainers

• AAPL (Apple) — Up: Apple led the rally on May 1 after reporting surprise earnings. The strong results helped alleviate concerns over AI growth momentum and boosted investor sentiment across the tech sector.

• TWLO (Twilio) — Sharply Up: Twilio became one of the market's leading gainers on May 1 after beating quarterly earnings expectations by a wide margin.

• ROKU (Roku) — Up: Shares rose significantly following its earnings report, highlighting an earnings surprise as the season winds down.

• TEAM (Atlassian) — Up: Received a positive market reaction following its earnings release.

• RDDT (Reddit) — Up: Recorded as one of the stocks contributing to the upward momentum on May 1 due to an earnings surprise.

Losers

• RBLX (Roblox) — Down: Shares fell on May 1 following an earnings report that missed market expectations.

• Dow Components — Mixed/Slight decline: Dow components overall showed a slight weakness on May 1, leading to a minor decline for the index itself.

Macro & Economic Indicators

• Fed Division: At the FOMC meeting on April 29 (Wed), rates were held steady, but officials were divided. With inflation paths uncertain due to oil price spikes caused by the Iran war, perspectives on rate cuts differed significantly. Markets paused briefly at the mixed signals but soon refocused on earnings momentum.

• WTI Crude Oil: WTI futures spiked to over $126 per barrel on April 30, a four-year high, before retreating quickly. Concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East due to the U.S.-Iran conflict flared but eased slightly amid peace talk hopes. Oil volatility continues to influence bond yields and the dollar.

• Japanese Yen & Forex Intervention: The yen surged on April 30. Multiple sources reported that Japanese authorities intervened in the market to defend the currency. This occurred alongside falling global bond yields and rising stock prices, serving as a variable that could indirectly impact the KRW/USD exchange rate.

Global Top News

U.S.-Iran Conflict and Middle East Oil Shock

• The Story: WTI crude spiked past $126 a barrel on April 30, a four-year high, on fears of Middle East supply chain disruptions due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, before retreating. By May 1, hopes for peace talks cooled prices.
• Market Impact: Oil volatility directly affects domestic refinery, chemical, and airline sectors. Stabilizing oil prices would be positive for KOSPI energy stocks but could also feed inflationary pressure, weakening expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Tech Earnings Boost S&P 500 and Nasdaq

• The Story: Apple's surprise earnings on May 1 helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to record highs. Mid-to-small cap tech stocks like Twilio, Roku, Atlassian, and Reddit also posted earnings surprises. The S&P 500 gained over 10% in April.
• Market Impact: Strong big tech earnings could create positive demand for Korean semiconductor and AI-related export stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, etc.). Apple’s local supply chain partners may also benefit.

Japanese Authorities Intervene in Forex Market

• The Story: The yen surged on April 30, with reports indicating Japanese authorities intervened to defend its value. Bond yields fell on the same day.
• Market Impact: A stronger yen can put upward pressure on the won, impacting currency risk for export-oriented Korean firms. Keeping an eye on the KRW/USD exchange rate is essential.

IMF Lowers Growth Forecast Amid War Shadows

• The Story: In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF warned of slower growth and re-accelerating inflation due to the war, noting that energy supply instability is increasing policy uncertainty.
• Market Impact: Concerns over global growth slowdown weigh on the long-term outlook for Korean exporters. Specifically, rising energy costs put immediate pressure on the import-dependent Korean economy.

Korean Market Checkpoint

Following the U.S. market’s record highs, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ are expected to open higher on the 2nd, led by tech stocks. Apple’s strong performance should benefit its local supply chain. However, high WTI volatility and the potential for a renewed U.S.-Iran conflict remain risks. Investors should also monitor the KRW/USD rate following the yen's jump. The historical "Sell in May" period is another factor to consider for mid-to-long-term positioning.

What to Watch

• Economic Indicators/Events: No major indicators on May 2 (Sat), but attention will turn to upcoming U.S. employment data (non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate) due early next week (May 4-5).
• Earnings: Most of the earnings season is over; monitor upcoming late-season reports.
• Fed/Policy: Focus on upcoming comments from Fed officials following the April 29 FOMC.
• Risks: ① Potential for renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade risks → possible oil price spike; ② Potential profit-taking associated with the "Sell in May" effect.

Investor Action Items

1. Morning Strategy: Given the gap-up potential from U.S. market highs, closely check supply/demand for semiconductors (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) and IT component stocks. Watch news flows related to Apple supply chain companies (LG Innotek, Samsung SDI, etc.).
2. Sector/Stock Check: Refiners and chemical stocks are expected to fluctuate with WTI prices; react only after confirming the trend. If the KRW/USD rate continues to drop (stronger won), consider adjusting export stock exposure.
3. Risk Management: As the S&P 500 hits record highs during the "Sell in May" period, operate with conservative position sizes for new buys and set clear stop-loss levels. Monitor Middle East geopolitical news in real-time and adjust energy sector exposure accordingly.