GLOBAL Morning Briefing — 2026-05-18

Market Snapshot at a Glance

⚠️ Note: U.S. market closing data for Monday, May 18, was not finalized at the time of this report. The figures below are based on daily trends reported by Reuters, Bloomberg, and others. Please verify exact closing prices via sources like Yahoo Finance.

U.S. Market Review

Global stock markets pulled back on Monday, May 18, following reports of fresh drone strikes in the Gulf. Reuters reported, "Renewed drone attacks pushed oil and bond yields higher, reigniting inflation concerns." Investor sentiment remains jittery ahead of one of the market's biggest tests this week: NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings.

After setting record highs last week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were hampered on Friday by surging bond yields and inflation fears. According to Schwab’s weekly outlook, "While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new highs this week, today's sharp rise in Treasury yields triggered some profit-taking."

Notably, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield tested the 5% threshold again, nearing its 2023 highs and dealing a direct hit to long-term bonds. Bloomberg noted, "Longer-dated bonds are more vulnerable to accelerating inflation, with 30-year yields approaching 2023 highs."

While momentum in AI and semiconductors persists, energy and interest rate anxieties are pressuring high-growth stocks. According to TradingKey, while RXT (AI infrastructure partnership, up over 165%) and energy/defense stocks have shown strong gains in May, overall market volatility could widen if Iran-related risks resurface.

Key Stocks Today

Top Gainers

• MSFT (Microsoft) — +3.81% (as of May 15): Shares jumped following news of Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square building a core position, combined with analyst upgrades regarding OpenAI deals and Azure growth. AI revenue and cloud growth momentum continue.

• RXT (AI Infrastructure) — +165%+ (May MTD): Emerged as one of the top gainers in May following the announcement of an AI infrastructure partnership.

• CSCO (Cisco) — Led record-breaking gains on May 14: Stood at the forefront of the tech rally, helping push the Dow Jones above the 50,000 mark for the first time since February.

Top Decliners

• CRBR (Cerebras) — Retreated after IPO: Garnered massive attention as the largest IPO of 2026 (offering price $185, opened at $350, up ~70%), but saw a pullback as profit-taking selling hit the stock.

• Interest Rate-Sensitive Sectors — Sectors like real estate and utilities are facing pressure due to rising Treasury yields and renewed Gulf instability.

Macro & Economic Indicators

• U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Breaches 5% (May 13): Surging energy prices have pushed inflation expectations higher, sending the 30-year yield to 5% for the first time since 2007. Bloomberg reported, "Investors have been buying long-term bonds at 5%, largely driven by rising inflation expectations from spiking energy prices," bolstering bets on further Fed rate hikes.

• Largest Weekly Drop in U.S. Treasuries (May 15): U.S. Treasuries recorded their largest weekly decline in a year last week, driven by inflation fears and concentrated in long-dated bonds.

• Gulf Drone Strikes → Oil & Yields Surge (May 18): News of new drone strikes on Monday pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, bringing inflation fears back to the forefront. Tension is mounting ahead of this week's "tech bull market test": NVIDIA earnings.

Global Top News (By Market Impact)

Renewed Gulf Drone Strikes — Oil Spikes, Global Stocks Retreat

• What happened: Fresh drone strikes in the Gulf on Monday caused oil prices and bond yields to jump, leading to a broad decline in global stock markets. Reuters reported that global stock markets slid while bond prices collapsed.
• Market Implications: A spike in WTI oil prices deepens inflation concerns. While this may benefit energy and refinery sectors in the Korean KOSPI, general "risk-off" sentiment could trigger foreign net selling and put upward pressure on the KRW/USD exchange rate.

NVIDIA Earnings Imminent — AI Tech Bull Market's Biggest Test

• What happened: With NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings scheduled this week, Reuters labels it the "biggest test yet for the AI-led tech bull market." Since the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their biggest monthly gains in years in May, a miss from NVDA could force a significant correction.
• Market Implications: This directly impacts the Korean semiconductor sector (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix). Investors must closely monitor the report, as NVIDIA's demand guidance for AI chips will dictate the outlook for HBM memory demand.

U.S. Treasury Yields Soar — Inflation Fears Grip Bond Market

• What happened: U.S. Treasuries saw their biggest weekly drop in a year last week (as of May 15). The 30-year yield neared 2023 highs, while 10-year yields reached their highest levels since July following PPI data. Energy price spikes stemming from the conflict involving Iran are the primary culprits.
• Market Implications: Rising long-term rates pressure high-valuation growth stocks (tech/biotech) and may dampen foreign demand for Korean bonds, increasing upward pressure on the KRW/USD rate and possibly delaying expectations for Bank of Korea rate cuts.

Cerebras IPO — Falls After Strong 2026 Debut

• What happened: AI chip maker Cerebras debuted as the largest IPO of 2026, opening at $350 (+~70% from the $185 offer price), but subsequently slid as profit-taking hit the stock.
• Market Implications: This confirms strong market interest in AI chips/semiconductors, while also highlighting the short-term volatility risks associated with high-valuation IPOs. A price-level check is needed for Korean AI/semiconductor-related stocks.

Korean Market Checkpoint

The risk-off sentiment in the U.S. and global markets on Monday, May 18, is expected to put downward pressure on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ. While WTI oil price spikes may provide short-term benefits for refinery and energy stocks, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could trigger foreign capital outflows. In particular, the semiconductor sector, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is directly linked to this week’s NVIDIA earnings; investors should closely watch NVIDIA’s pre-market movements and post-earnings guidance. The KRW/USD exchange rate is expected to remain firm or rise slightly, which is a limited positive for exporters but a burden on foreign capital flows.

Watch List

• Economic Indicators/Events: Monitor U.S. housing starts/building permits (for May) and scheduled speeches by Fed officials (evening to late night KST).
• Earnings Releases: NVIDIA (NVDA) — The most critical report this week. All market attention is focused on the exact timing and guidance regarding AI chip demand. Walmart (WMT) is also a key watch item.
• Fed/Policy Events: With inflation fears resurfacing, bets on rate hikes are strengthening. Focus on whether Fed officials maintain a hawkish stance this week.
• Risk Factors: ① Expansion of Gulf drone attacks and potential re-escalation of Iran tensions → Risk of further oil price spikes. ② Risk of a large-scale correction in the AI/semiconductor sector if NVIDIA misses expectations.

Investor Action Items

1. Morning Session Response: Watch foreign net buying/selling trends in the KOSPI early on. With strong downward pressure due to risk-off sentiment, keep a close eye on short-term resistance levels for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (-1% to -2% from the previous day's closing).
2. Sector Check: ① Semiconductors (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) — A "split" response strategy is valid during periods of increased volatility before and after NVIDIA’s earnings. ② Refinery/Energy (S-OIL, SK Innovation) — Expect short-term momentum from spiking oil prices, but be wary of a reversal if Middle East tensions ease.
3. Risk Management: This week, a single event—NVIDIA earnings—could dictate the direction for tech stocks as a whole. Consider trimming large positions before the announcement or using hedging tools (put options, volatility ETFs). Monitor whether the KRW/USD exchange rate holds above 1,380 as a benchmark for foreign fund flows.