Gold Futures Market Briefing — May 25, 2026

Current Gold Prices and Key Figures

• Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Price: $4,509.38 (as of May 24, 2026)
• Gold Futures (COMEX June Contract): Retraced after an intraday rise; weekly -2.8%, monthly -3.2%, +38.1% year-over-year.
• Gold Spot Trading Data (per Tradingeconomics, May 22): $4,516.75 / Daily change -26.20 (-0.58%) / Weekly -0.68% / Monthly -3.86% / YTD +4.56% / Year-over-year +34.51%.

Market Drivers and News Analysis

1. U.S.-Iran Tensions and Potential Hormuz Strait Reopening

Gold futures opened slightly higher on Thursday but faced retracement due to conflicting signals regarding easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These opposing factors are destabilizing investor sentiment and capping gold's price direction.

2. Central Bank of Russia Resumes Gold Sales

Reports indicate that the Central Bank of Russia has resumed gold sales to bolster foreign exchange reserves amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. This has led gold to its lowest weekly close since the beginning of 2026, showing a flat trend compared to the start of the year.

3. JPMorgan Lowers Short-Term Outlook, Maintains Year-End Bullish Stance

JPMorgan has adjusted its 2026 gold price forecast downward, citing weaker short-term demand. However, the bank maintains its long-term bullish view, expecting gold prices to climb toward $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year.

4. Indian Gold Price Outlook and Middle East Risk

Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, noted that despite some corrections, gold maintains an overall bullish upward trend, citing U.S.-Iran conflict and Middle East risks as key upward variables.

Technical Chart Analysis and Trading Scenarios

Key Support / Resistance Levels

• Support A (Pierced): $4,607–$4,579 — Downward breakout confirmed.
• Next Support B (Downward Target): $4,466–$4,423.
• Current Price: $4,509.38 (May 24, 2026).
• Pivot Point: $4,493.40.
• Key Resistance: $4,580–$4,590 range (repeated failures to recover).
• Broad Integration Range: $4,300 support / $5,400 resistance.

Trading Scenarios

• Bearish Scenario: Support A ($4,579) has been broken. High probability of testing the next major support zone between $4,466 and $4,423. As long as gold remains below the $4,960 resistance within the downward channel, the bearish stance persists.
• Bullish Transition Conditions: Requires a breakout and confirmed closing price above the $4,580–$4,590 range. Failure to recover this zone suggests further downside.

Macro Context

1. Goldman Sachs: Central Bank Buying Exceeds Estimates, Further Increase Expected in Second Half

Goldman Sachs commodity strategists announced that central bank gold purchases since early 2026 have exceeded previous estimates and that demand from national institutions is expected to rise further in the second half of the year. This is consistently cited as a structural background for gold's long-term bullishness.

2. Bank of America’s $6,000 Target — Signal of 'Monetary System Shift'

Bank of America has set a 2026 gold price target of $6,000 per ounce. This forecast is interpreted not just as a price prediction, but as a reflection of structural changes in the monetary system, including U.S. fiscal deterioration, record-high central bank gold purchases, and an expanding private investor base.

3. End of the Low-Interest-Rate Era and Gold’s New Reality

According to LiteFinance’s weekly analysis, the low-interest-rate era has effectively ended, and gold has entered a new phase of adaptation. While XAU/USD has mid-term upside potential, the analysis suggests that short-term correction pressure will persist as long as a high-interest-rate environment continues.

Disclaimer: This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold futures trading involves the risk of loss of principal; all investment decisions are made at the user's own discretion and responsibility.