골드 선물 시장 브리핑 — 2026-09-24

금 가격 현황 및 주요 수치

• Goldman Sachs Research has set its year-end gold price target at $4,900 per ounce.
• On Thursday, September 24, gold (XAU/USD) dropped to a one-week low, trading around $4,260 and declining about 0.65% for the day.
• On September 23, it traded near $4,346, holding around the $4,334 level against the backdrop of record ETF demand.
• On September 24, it was trading just below $4,275, as strong U.S. economic data raised expectations for another rate hike in October.

시장 영향 요인 및 뉴스 분석

1. 골드만삭스의 완강한 강세 전망: Gold prices are projected to reach $4,900/oz by the end of the year. According to Goldman Sachs nowcast estimates, central bank gold buying remained strong through July, with China purchasing significantly more gold than its official reports indicated (75% more than reported as of July). This serves as a key basis for the year-end 2026 target.

2. 중앙은행 수요 대규모 매입: Central banks are buying 863 tons of gold, and analyses suggest that traditional investment strategies combining gold and Treasuries are breaking down in 2026 amid yields reaching 5% and a persistent $2 trillion deficit.

3. FOMC 매팅 압력 대비 기록적 ETF 수요: On September 23, gold showed a limited outlook due to more hawkish members within the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), forming a contrast where record ETF demand offset the downward pressure.

기술적 차트 분석 및 매매 시나리오

• On September 22, gold's price action indicated a bullish swing direction and a bearish internal direction, showing mixed movement after printing a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH (Change of Character).
• The key level of $4,300 acted as support, providing rebound momentum and allowing prices to recover some losses after breaking above the short-term downward correction trendline.
• Trading currently remains above the EMA50, moving above the $4,400 resistance level (the morning target for the day).
• Rebound momentum has stalled near recent lows, with selling pressure acting around the $4,350 mark.
• For the monthly outlook, a range of $4,136.00 to $5,304.00 is expected by month-end, with closing prices suggested at $5,051.00 (absolute optimistic) or $4,443.91 (conservative).

매크로 컨텍스트 (Macro Context)

1. 미 국채 금리 급등(5% 돌파): U.S. Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, marking the highest level since the beginning of the year. Expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, driven by strong U.S. economic activity data and weak U.S. Treasury auctions, are the main factors behind this setup.

2. 팔매 데이터 충격(작업 전 급변동): Hot PMI data, combined with a failed Treasury auction, triggered sharp sell-offs and reinforced rate hike expectations.

3. ECB 금리 인하 지연 전망: BofA forecasted that European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts would resume in the second half of 2027. Differing major currency interest rate expectations could lead to relative weakness in the euro against the dollar, supporting dollar strength.

4. 달러 강세와 금리 인상 기대의 압박: On September 22, both gold and silver fell as dollar strength and hawkish warnings outweighed cheaper oil prices.

컨텍스트 안내: This article contains only the latest information published within the past 24 hours as of September 24, 2026. Some figures may require verification for accuracy against the original source.