Gold Futures Briefing — 2026-08-04

Current Gold Price & Key Figures

Market Drivers & News Analysis

1. Fed's Shift in Interest Rate Policy

UBS strategists noted that for gold futures to return to an upward trajectory in the second half of 2026, the Federal Reserve must avoid additional interest rate hikes. The Fed's stance of holding rates steady is acting as a positive signal for gold prices, effectively easing upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields.

2. Strong Central Bank Buying Demand

In Q2 2026, central banks purchased 289 tons of gold, keeping total demand at the 1,269-ton level. Despite a 17% decline in jewelry demand, consistent central bank buying and OTC investment demand continue to support the market. UBS emphasized that strong central bank buying is a prerequisite for gold price growth in the latter half of the year.

3. Dual Impact of Weak USD and High Treasury Yields

Gold prices are supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, but remain constrained by high U.S. Treasury yields, robust employment data, and shifting geopolitical risks. While a weak dollar is positive for gold, rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Technical Analysis & Trading Scenarios

Spot gold continues to consolidate near the $4,000 level. After a weak start during the August 3 daily session, buying pressure returned, pushing the price back to opening levels.

Key Support & Resistance Levels:

• Immediate Support: $4,000 (key psychological level)
• Resistance Levels: Expect testing of the $4,320 zone above $4,226
• Additional Resistance: $4,815 (long-term target)
• Downside Support: $3,890 ~ $3,728 (in a weakening scenario)

The consolidation phase is nearing its end. According to RoboForex analysis, a sell signal is emerging (with the Stochastic indicator moving from 80 toward the oversold region), suggesting that the formation of a bottom for the correction is imminent.

Macro Context

1. The Fed’s Rate Freeze Stance

The Federal Reserve is currently interpreted as having ended its interest rate hiking cycle. This policy shift reduces the opportunity cost of gold, creating a structural foundation for price gains.

2. High Treasury Yield Environment

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains high, limiting the relative appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. However, as the Fed's rate freeze persists, yields are expected to decline in the long run.

3. Signs of Recovering Investment Demand

OTC investment demand remains strong, forming a dual-support structure alongside central bank purchases. MUFG predicts that gold prices will largely stay stagnant around $4,000 throughout 2026, but noted that a shift in the Fed's stance could trigger a bullish scenario.