Gold Futures Market Briefing — 2026-07-13

Current Status and Key Figures

Gold futures plunged nearly 3% following the U.S. announcement to resume a maritime blockade against Iran last weekend. Gold is currently trading at approximately $4,100 per ounce, marking its second consecutive week of decline.

Technical analysis shows that gold has been defending key support levels for five consecutive weeks near its annual lows. Repeated failed attempts to break out are increasing the risk of a significant price inflection point.

Market Influencing Factors and News Analysis

1. Middle East Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Surge President Trump’s announcement regarding the resumption of the maritime blockade against Iran triggered a surge in oil prices, reigniting inflation fears. Rising oil prices increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

2. Strong Dollar Offsets Safe-Haven Demand Gold has fallen for two weeks as a strong dollar limits demand for safe-haven assets. Market analysts believe gold has entered a consolidation phase following significant gains over the past several months.

3. Record Central Bank Gold Buying According to a World Gold Council (WGC) survey, 45% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings, reaching record levels. Strong demand from central banks serves as a key factor supporting the floor of the gold market.

Technical Chart Analysis and Trading Scenarios

Gold found support near $4,060/ounce, broke through the $4,090 resistance, and is now facing resistance near $4,140.

Technical analysis suggests that the $4,000 level could be the key benchmark for determining the next trend.

The medium-term technical outlook for spot gold remains dominated by bearish sentiment, with prices moving along a support trendline. To regain upward momentum, it must overcome the current bearish slope.

Macro Context

1. Re-evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Rate Path Rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions are pushing up inflation expectations, which increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates or consider additional hikes. Expectations for higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

2. Dollar Index Strength A strengthened dollar reduces the international purchasing power of gold, which is priced in dollars, and discourages conversion demand from foreign currency asset holders. This is a primary factor sustaining gold's short-term weakness.

3. Structural Support from Central Bank Demand Nevertheless, record gold demand from central banks is expected to support gold prices in the second half of 2026. Central bank purchases, intended to hedge against long-term monetary policy risks, are creating a structural base of demand that offsets short-term volatility.