KOSPI Market Volatility and Key Influencing Factors — 2026-06-13

---

1. KOSPI Market Indicators and Supply-Demand Status

The KOSPI experienced extreme volatility on the 11th. The index fluctuated throughout the day, with gains and losses reversing over 50 times, and it opened with a sharp 2.8% decline.

While the KOSPI managed to close while defending the 7,700 mark, the VKOSPI (KOSPI 200 Volatility Index) reached the 90 level, marking an all-time high in market volatility.

Over the past two days, forced liquidations of retail investors' holdings have led to the sell-off of approximately 300 billion won in stocks.

---

2. Key Volatility Factors Today

① Escalating Middle East Tensions The United States has continued its airstrikes on Iran for two consecutive days, significantly heightening tensions in the Middle East. This is increasing the likelihood of further adjustments in the domestic stock market and stimulating risk-aversion sentiment among global investors.

② Doubts Over AI Investment Scalability Concerns regarding a cooling in AI investment, following Oracle's sharp decline, are weighing on the market. There is growing skepticism about the "sustainability" of the current AI expansion, and the correction in global tech stocks is rippling into the Korean market.

③ Distortions from Futures and Options Expiration The simultaneous expiration of futures and options on the 11th is identified as a primary cause of the severe supply-demand distortions and extreme volatility. However, there is an expectation that the VKOSPI volatility may ease from the 90 level following this expiration.

---

3. Macro Factors and Economic Indicators

① US Interest Rate Hike Outlook Expectations of interest rate hikes in the U.S. serve as the backdrop for the current correction in the Korean stock market. Although the U.S. market rebounded strongly due to easing inflation and a sharp drop in oil prices, this optimism has not yet translated to the Korean market.

② KRW/USD Exchange Rate Trends The continued weakness of the Korean won is acting as a major macroeconomic volatility factor. The tendency for the domestic stock market to decline when the KRW/USD exchange rate rises is significantly impacting foreign investor sentiment.

③ Global Oil Price Decline While the sharp drop in oil prices acts as a signal for easing inflation, the uncertainty caused by Middle East tensions is offsetting these gains.

---

4. Summary and Investor Notes

The KOSPI is currently seeing record-high volatility due to a convergence of negative factors, including geopolitical risks in the Middle East, concerns over AI investment, and the expiration of futures and options. However, as the supply-demand distortions are expected to be largely resolved following the expiration on the 11th, there is potential for volatility to ease moving forward.

Key Checkpoints:

• Watch the results of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
• Monitor shifts in global risk asset supply and demand based on developments in the Middle East.
• Verify whether volatility stabilizes after the futures and options expiration.