Market Wrap-up and AI Investment Ideas — 2026-06-19

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Semiconductor supercycle hopes clash with FOMC caution as KOSPI nears peak.

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Market Closing Status

• Key Features:
  • The KOSPI maintained an upward trend in the first half, driven by AI fever and the semiconductor supercycle, led by large tech stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. However, a hawkish tone from the June FOMC is now putting downward pressure on the market.
  • The KOSPI 200 Volatility Index (the Korean "fear index") has fallen below the 80 level for the first time in seven trading days, suggesting a cooling of recent rollercoaster-like volatility.
  • As the index approaches the 9,000-point mark, securities lending balances related to short selling have hit record highs, signaling increased bets on a decline.

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Today's Key Stocks and Issues

Focus on Semiconductor and Energy Investments

Walldex has announced a medium-to-long-term growth strategy involving a 260 billion KRW investment by 2030. The funds will be directed toward expanding the semiconductor materials business, R&D, and M&As in future growth sectors, signaling a proactive response from domestic companies to the semiconductor supercycle.

National Pension Service Selects 47 Securities Firms

The National Pension Service (NPS), the largest institutional investor in the domestic capital market, has selected 47 securities firms for the second half of 2026. Industry experts noted that the heavy concentration in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix during the first half resulted in high volatility for stocks outside the semiconductor supply chain.

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AI-Driven Investment Ideas

1. Sustained Earnings Growth for Semiconductor-Related Stocks

Second-quarter operating and net profits for the semiconductor sector are projected to grow by 56% and 37%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter. This indicates a recovery in profitability supported by rebounding memory semiconductor prices and rising AI demand.

2. Securities Sector Benefits from Increased Trading Volume

Positive factors—including higher trading volume, expansion of the ETF market, increased customer deposits, and greater retail investor inflow—are boosting the potential for earnings growth in the securities sector. Revenue bases have improved following the KOSPI’s first-half rally.

3. Selective Approach to Global Big Tech Leaders

Korea Investment & Securities is keeping an eye on Nvidia, Alphabet, and Micron in developed markets; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Jiangxi Copper in emerging markets; and SK Square, Samsung Life Insurance, and SK Hynix domestically.

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Investment Cautions and Macro Context

1. Impact of the Hawkish FOMC Stance

While the June FOMC decided to keep interest rates on hold, the hawkish tone during the press conference is acting as a downward pressure on the market. Potential changes in future monetary policy implementation could increase market volatility.

2. Risk of Correction After Rapid Short-Term Gains

Kiwoom Securities evaluated that the domestic stock market faces high-valuation caution as it approaches the 9,000-point mark, compounded by the pressure of recent rapid gains. The record high in securities lending balances suggests an increase in short-selling ammunition, indicating stronger bets on a market pullback.

3. Ethical Management Remains a Challenge Despite Improved Corporate Image

While perception of Korean companies has significantly improved—highlighted by the warm response during the Nvidia CEO's visit and hitting an all-time high in the 2026 Corporate Favorability Index—the level of ethical management remains low, leaving the strengthening of trust-based operations as a key task.