Forex & Currency Watch — 2026-09-25

Market Snapshot

Top Movers

• USD/JPY — yen stronger, −0.99% to 157.27. The dollar dropped 1.58 points intraday (high 159.00, low 156.94) as Citi forecasts the yen strengthening on reduced foreign investment out of Japan-backed positions.
• USD/CHF — dollar stronger, +0.80% on the week to 0.8287. The Swiss franc remains under pressure as the Treasury-driven dollar rally persists, with USD/CHF up 2.89% on the month.
• USD/CAD — +1.07% weekly at 1.4140. The Canadian dollar held near recent lows as the broader U.S. dollar rally kept pressure on the loonie.

What Moved the Tape

• Hawkish Fed narrative: The DXY rallied 0.35% to near 100.90 earlier this week, its highest in over seven weeks, as markets embraced a hawkish Federal Reserve view; the index now trades near 101.15 and is heading for a second consecutive weekly gain above 101.00.
• Treasury bond rout: A historic sell-off in U.S. Treasuries lifted the 10-year yield for a sixth straight week, powering dollar gains and pressing EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower on the week.
• ECB energy-price warning: ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic said Friday the ECB sees a "risk of higher for longer energy prices," warning diesel prices will stay high and feed into inflation.

Central Bank Watch

• Fed — Sharon Hammack (Cleveland FC): Beth Hammack said Friday the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate are "not in conflict," noting "high inflation complicates economic planning" and that she doesn't see current policy as restraining the economy — a signal policy is still non-restrictive.
• ECB — Vujcic: The vice president said the ECB started a tightening cycle and flagged higher-for-longer energy prices as an inflation risk.
• Rate-path shift: The bond rout and hawkish Fed commentary have pushed pricing toward tighter-for-longer U.S. policy, underpinning six straight weekly climbs in the 10-year yield.

Emerging Markets & Asia FX

No fresh, verified data for this section from the past 24 hours. The CAD held near recent lows (USD/CAD at 1.4140) as the dollar rally keeps pressure on the loonie.

Strategist Takes

• Citi FX: Citi forecasts the Japanese yen will strengthen on reduced foreign investment, a call that appears to be playing out with USD/JPY's near-1% slide Friday.
• Market analysts: A Q4 2026 outlook sees stronger Fed expectations and North American trade tensions supporting the dollar against both the CAD and MXN, with analysts asking whether the greenback will "dominate North America again."

What to Watch Next

• S&P Global flash PMIs — dollar-sensitive release that FX traders were positioning ahead of at midweek; watch DXY reaction above/below 101.00.
• USD/JPY technical trajectory — after the sharp break from 159.00 to 156.94, watch whether the yen-strengthening view extends; the pair holds a +0.25% weekly cushion that could flip negative.
• ECB speakers — follow-up commentary after Vujcic's energy-price warning could move EUR/USD, which sits at 1.1398 after softer weeks.
• 10-year Treasury yield momentum — after six straight weekly climbs and calls of a 19-year-high in yields, a pause or extension will steer the dollar trend into October.

Reader Action Items

• Watch the 101.00 handle on DXY. A second weekly close above it would confirm the hawkish-Fed channel; a break back below could unwind this week's CHF/CAD long-dollar flows.
• EUR/USD at 1.1398 — don't chase. The pair is up today but −2.18% on the month; ECB hawkish talk vs the Treasury rout creates two-way risk.
• USD/JPY break risk: with the Citi call in play, a weekly close below ~157 could open a faster yen-recovery leg; conservative traders should wait for 156.94 (Friday's low) to be retested.

Note: screenshot-based extraction of live quote pages may be incomplete; verify critical levels directly on Investing.com or your broker feed before trading.