Forex & Currency Watch — 2026-08-28

Market Snapshot

The dollar remains on the back foot ahead of key US data and the Fed Chair's speech. The table below reflects the latest live quotes from Investing.com as of August 28, 2026.

Top Movers

• NZD/USD (Losers): Down 0.45% to 0.5926. The kiwi faced selling pressure as traders reduced exposure ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
• USD/CHF (Winners): Up 0.45% to 0.8079. The Swiss franc weakened against the dollar, mirroring broader weakness in safe-haven currencies against a stabilizing greenback.
• EUR/USD (Losers): Down 0.40% to 1.1605. The euro slipped from intraday highs as the dollar found support following stronger-than-expected GDP revisions and in-line core PCE data released late Wednesday.

What Moved the Tape

• Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Address: Markets are largely on hold or slightly risk-off regarding the dollar as they await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote speech on Friday. Recent commentary suggests the Fed "may not be done fighting inflation," which has helped stabilize the dollar near one-week lows rather than letting it slide further.
• Core PCE and GDP Data: On Wednesday, the US reported in-line core PCE data and a stronger-than-expected GDP revision. This combination provided enough economic resilience to keep the dollar firm, preventing a deeper sell-off despite the pre-event caution.
• Australian Inflation Surprise: Australia's July CPI data came in hotter than expected (slowing to 3.5% YoY but beating forecasts), which initially boosted the Australian Dollar. However, the AUD/USD gave back some gains today (-0.22%) as global risk sentiment cooled ahead of the Fed speech.

Central Bank Watch

• Federal Reserve (Fed): Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday. The market is watching for clues on whether the current pause in rate hikes will extend further if inflation proves sticky.
• Bank of Japan (BoJ): Expectations for a rate hike are firming up for the September meeting, with consensus pointing toward a 25 basis point increase to 1.25%. This has kept USD/JPY volatile, trading near 159.93 as traders position for potential intervention or policy shifts.
• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Hotter-than-expected inflation data has boosted bets that the RBA may need to hike rates again sooner than anticipated, providing underlying support to the AUD despite intraday dips.

Emerging Markets & Asia FX

• South Korean Won (KRW): The won hit a 13-month high against the dollar following the Bank of Korea's decision to hike rates. This divergence in monetary policy has strengthened the KRW significantly.
• Indian Rupee (INR): India's foreign-exchange reserves reached a record $729.33 billion, providing a massive buffer for the rupee and supporting stability in emerging market flows.
• Chinese Yuan (CNY): While specific daily moves were muted in the snapshot, broader Asian FX trends show a divergence where currencies like the Won and Yen are reacting strongly to local central bank actions and yield differentials against the dollar.

Strategist Takes

• Matt Oliver (Investing.com): Analyzes the "End of Cheap Yen," noting that rising Japanese yields are pulling at the cheap capital that has traditionally funded carry trades, potentially leading to higher yields for US Treasuries.
• Nigel Green (Investing.com): States that "Markets forgive volatility. They don’t forgive uncertainty," emphasizing that the primary goal for Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is to provide clarity on the inflation fight to prevent erratic repricing.

What to Watch Next

1. Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole Keynote: Scheduled for Friday, August 28. This is the highest-impact event of the week, likely to cause volatility in DXY, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY.
2. US PCE Data: Already released on Wednesday, but follow-up commentary from Fed officials on these figures will continue to influence rate expectations throughout Friday.
3. Bank of Japan Policy Signals: With a hike expected in September, any verbal intervention or shift in guidance from BoJ officials this week could spike USD/JPY volatility.
4. RBA Rate Path Commentary: Following the hot CPI print, any RBA officials speaking on the need for further tightening could boost AUD/USD.

Reader Action Items

• Watch DXY Levels: Keep an eye on the 99.00 level for the Dollar Index. A break above this could signal renewed strength if Warsh sounds hawkish; a break below could invite more selling.
• Monitor USD/JPY Intervention Risk: With the pair near 160.00 and BoJ hike expectations rising, be cautious of sudden spikes or drops due to potential Japanese government intervention.
• Positioning for Volatility: Given the Jackson Hole event, avoid over-leveraged positions in major pairs like EUR/USD until the Fed Chair's speech concludes and the initial reaction settles.