Forex & Currency Watch — 2026-04-24

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Market Snapshot

Note: Ranges reflect the latest intraday prints from TradingEconomics (Apr/22 close) and Investing.com real-time feeds (20:32–20:33 GMT, Apr 23).

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Top Movers

Winners (vs. USD over past session):

• AUD/USD (+0.03–0.08% daily; +7.27% YTD): The Aussie dollar continued its dominant 2026 outperformance, benefiting from China-linked commodity flows and the yuan's relative stability. Its 12.56% year-on-year gain makes it the top performer among majors in the current cycle.

• NZD/USD (+0.03–0.16%): The kiwi extended modest gains, supported by its correlation to AUD strength and the broader commodity-currency complex receiving some relief from stabilizing oil prices.

• USD/COL (COP, -0.50% vs. USD): The Colombian peso was the session's standout winner against the greenback in LatAm, gaining over half a percent, driven by oil price stabilization and broader EM risk appetite in early Asia/European hours.

Losers (vs. USD):

• USD/HUF (+0.64%): The Hungarian forint was the weakest G20-adjacent currency in the European session, with the pair up 0.64% on the day, extending a troubled monthly slide of -6.77% and a -13.70% year-on-year depreciation against the dollar.

• EUR/USD (-0.33% at prior close; -0.81% weekly): The euro continued to give back gains from the earlier part of the week as dollar safe-haven demand reasserted itself. Uncertainty over ECB rate-path expectations and geopolitical anxiety capped upside.

• USD/NOK (NOK -0.60%): Despite Norway's status as an oil exporter, the krone slipped as geopolitical uncertainty tempered any crude-related gains.

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What Moved the Tape

• 🇺🇸 U.S.-Iran conflict / Hormuz fears → DXY, USD/JPY, USD/CHF: The single biggest tape-mover this cycle remains the elevated U.S.-Iran military tensions. Reuters reported (April 22) that "the dollar edged up against the euro amid lingering geopolitical worries" after President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire deadline to allow Tehran more time to present a unified proposal. DXY held near 98.60, while USD/CHF gained as the Swiss franc and dollar both attracted safe-haven flows. FXStreet confirmed the DXY "held firm near the 98.60 area as investors continued to favor the Greenback amid lingering uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict."

• 🏦 ECB caution on rate path → EUR/JPY, EUR/USD: ECB communication remained cautious, with the cross-currency EUR/JPY trading around 187.25 on April 22, up just 0.05% on the day, according to FXStreet. The euro was broadly supported by "relative stability" while investors assessed diverging monetary policy between Europe and Japan. The ECB's wait-and-see posture prevented a stronger euro rally, keeping EUR/USD capped below 1.1750.

• 📈 BOJ wait-and-see / yen dynamics → USD/JPY: USD/JPY edged higher after clearing a key bearish trend line resistance at 159.35 on the 4-hour chart, per ActionForex technical analysis published within the past 8 hours. The bias remains for a gradual upside trend with 157.49 cluster support intact. The yen's weakness stems from a continued BOJ reluctance to tighten aggressively amid geopolitical headwinds, with oil price dynamics (via Japan's import bill sensitivity) also playing a role.

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Central Bank Watch

• Federal Reserve (USD): The Fed remains sidelined, with markets keeping central banks in "wait-and-see mode" according to Reuters' April 22 coverage of the Iran conflict impact on markets. No fresh Fed communication moved markets in the past 24 hours, but the geopolitical backdrop is reinforcing expectations that the Fed will not cut rates until clarity emerges on both trade and Middle East risk.

• ECB (EUR): ECB caution was the dominant European theme, with the EUR/JPY pair's subdued intraday movement (±0.05%) reflecting uncertainty around the ECB's rate-path. FXStreet noted that "relative stability in the Euro" reflects investors assessing "the impact of geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policy expectations between Europe and Japan." Traders are watching whether the ECB signals any tilt toward a hike (not ruled out per earlier analyst commentary) or stays on hold through 2026.

• BOJ (JPY): The Bank of Japan's inaction continues to be the dominant yen driver. ActionForex's USD/JPY daily outlook (published within 4 hours of this writing) notes that "further rise is expected" in USD/JPY "with 157.49 cluster support intact," reflecting the market's read that the BOJ has no near-term catalyst to accelerate tightening.

• PBOC (CNY): The yuan remained largely stable at USD/CNY 6.8329 (+0.07% on the day), a -2.06% move year-to-date. The PBOC has maintained its daily fixing regime as a stabilizing force, and Bessent's reported discussions about Gulf and Asian allies requesting dollar swap lines (including the UAE) suggest ongoing dollar-system demand globally.

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Emerging Markets & Asia FX

• Chinese yuan (USD/CNY: 6.8329, +0.07% daily): The yuan posted a modest daily loss against the dollar but remains the largest EM outperformer on a YTD basis (-2.06% vs. USD, meaning yuan is stronger). PBOC's managed-float mechanism has kept CNY from sharp depreciation amid ongoing trade tensions. Treasury Secretary Bessent's April 22 comments about Gulf and Asian allies requesting dollar swap lines highlight ongoing dollar-centric demand flows that keep USD/CNY anchored.

• Indian rupee (USD/INR: 93.838, +0.23% daily): The rupee slipped modestly, with the pair up 4.41% year-to-date (rupee weaker vs. dollar). India's proximity to the Strait of Hormuz conflict and its status as a net oil importer adds vulnerability to energy-price volatility.

• Mexican peso (USD/MXN: 17.348, +0.16% daily; -3.73% YTD): The peso remained under modest pressure intraday, though its year-to-date performance (-3.73% for USD/MXN, i.e., peso has strengthened) reflects resilience driven by nearshoring trends and high carry. The -11.65% year-on-year reading (MXN appreciation vs. USD over 12 months) underscores its status as a standout EM outperformer.

• Brazilian real (USD/BRL: 4.9747, -0.11% daily; -9.83% YTD): The real extended its impressive YTD run, with the pair down -9.83% year-to-date (real has appreciated sharply). A -12.88% year-on-year move places BRL as one of the top-performing EM currencies against the dollar over the past year, supported by carry trade interest and commodity export strength.

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Strategist Takes

• TS Lombard (Daniel Von Ahlen) on USD/JPY: TS Lombard's Daniel Von Ahlen told Investing.com that he "sees an attractive opportunity in shorting USD/JPY," reflecting a view that the yen is undervalued at current levels given BOJ policy trajectory and Japan's fundamental current account position. The pair's +11.23% year-on-year gain by the USD underscores how far yen weakness has extended — creating the asymmetric setup Von Ahlen describes.

• Investing.com analysis desk on USD and Q2 supply-chain dynamics: An Investing.com research piece dated April 22 argues that "the U.S. dollar could stage a [reprieve]" in Q2 as fragmenting global supply chains create structural demand for dollar-denominated settlements and invoicing. This contradicts the prevailing bearish consensus on the dollar, and aligns with DXY holding support around 98.60 despite broader negative dollar sentiment. The piece underlines that dollar bears face a challenging structural argument: reserve-currency demand may offset headline sentiment headwinds.

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What to Watch Next

1. Iran ceasefire / Hormuz developments (ongoing, next 1–2 sessions) → DXY, USD/CHF, USD/JPY: Trump's ceasefire extension gives Tehran more time to respond. Any breakdown in talks would spike DXY and CHF demand sharply; a credible de-escalation could trigger a sharp dollar selloff and yen/euro rally. Watch for White House statements closely.

2. BOJ communication / Japanese CPI data (coming days) → USD/JPY: USD/JPY technical structure points to a test of 160.45 resistance if 157.49 support holds. A surprise hawkish signal from the BOJ — or hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI — would be the key catalyst for a sharp yen reversal, which TS Lombard is already positioning for.

3. U.S. PCE / GDP data (Apr 25–30 window) → DXY, EUR/USD: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) and the advance Q1 GDP print are the next major U.S. macro catalysts. A softer-than-expected GDP print would likely re-accelerate DXY weakness and propel EUR/USD back toward 1.18–1.19; a hotter PCE read would cement the Fed's hold stance, giving the dollar a short-term floor.

4. ECB speakers / Eurozone PMI data (next 2 sessions) → EUR/USD, EUR/JPY: ECB officials are expected to speak in the coming days, with markets watching for any shift in rate-path communication. Eurozone composite PMI trajectory will determine whether EUR/USD can sustain a breakout above 1.1750 or retreats. EUR/JPY at ~187 is the key cross to watch for divergence signals.

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Reader Action Items

1. Watch USD/JPY at 157.49–160.45: The pair is in a defined technical range with bullish bias per ActionForex's fresh daily outlook. Short-sellers (à la TS Lombard) should wait for a clean break below 157.49 before pressing; longs face resistance at 160.45. The BOJ catalyst and any Iran de-escalation are the key binary risks for this pair this week.

2. AUD/USD is the 2026 macro theme — don't chase, but watch 0.7137 support: AUD's +7.27% YTD gain and +12.56% year-on-year performance is a standout. Near-term support is 0.7137; a close below signals short-term mean reversion risk. The pair is sensitive to Chinese demand data and commodity prices — both Hormuz- and PBOC-policy-dependent.

3. DXY at 98.60 is the line in the sand: If geopolitical tensions ease materially, DXY could break below 98.00, which would reprice EUR/USD above 1.18 and GBP/USD toward 1.36. Conversely, sustained Hormuz risk keeps a floor under the dollar. Position sizing should reflect this binary macro backdrop before the U.S. GDP and PCE prints later this week.