Forex & Currency Watch — 2026-09-22

Market Snapshot

Note: The dollar index (DXY) level was not available in today's data capture; screenshot-based extraction from quote pages may be incomplete — verify levels on the source page. Weekly EUR/JPY +0.89%, GBP/JPY +0.81% also reflect broad yen softness.

Top Movers

• NZD/USD — higher, +0.42% daily to 0.5739: the strongest G10 gainers list leader among the majors tracked, recovering after a brutal -3.92% monthly slide.
• USD/JPY — higher, +0.11% to 157.55, up +1.57% on the week: the yen remains pressured by the wide policy gap between a hawkish Fed and the Bank of Japan.
• USD/CHF — lower, -0.06% to 0.8210 after climbing to 0.8263 last week, its highest level since May 2025; the franc advanced as the market rotated out of the post-sell-off dollar long ahead of an SNB focus week.
• EUR/CAD — lower, ~1.6080 early Tuesday: the Canadian dollar drew strength from higher oil prices even as broad crude momentum faded.

What Moved the Tape

• Hawkish Fed tone: EUR/USD stayed subdued around 1.1460 in the European session as the dollar recovered daily losses on hawkish sentiment around the Fed's policy stance following last week's decision.
• BOJ-Fed policy divergence: Asian currencies traded mixed as the dollar steadied, with the yen specifically under pressure from the interest-rate policy gap.
• Geopolitics: President Trump said Iran "is not doing well" while Pakistan continued mediating peace efforts; Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will present Trump with a US-China AI pact. Geopolitical uncertainty kept markets on edge Tuesday.
• Oil reversal: The Canadian dollar came under pressure as oil retreated, trimming the greenback's gains against CAD.

Central Bank Watch

• Federal Reserve: The Fed raised rates at its September 16 decision, and the Fed Chair's press conference left several questions unanswered, per economist Claudia Sahm — feeding the hawkish tone that kept the dollar firm this week.
• Swiss National Bank: SNB commentary is firmly in focus for franc traders after USD/CHF's late-week run to multi-year highs stalled; the franc advanced modestly Monday.
• Bank of Japan: No fresh BOJ policy data in today's coverage, but the yen's slide to 157.55 continues to reflect the standing policy gap with the Fed — the pair is now +1.57% over the week.
• PBOC: The yuan hit a 3-1/2 year high Monday on a strong PBOC fixing, signaling continued official support for a firmer renminbi.

Emerging Markets & Asia FX

• CNY: The Chinese yuan traded near a 3-1/2-year high after a strong PBOC daily fixing — a notable signal of policy intent amid US-China trade talks.
• KRW / INR: Asian currencies traded mixed against a steadying dollar; ING's research flags the won, rupee and rupiah among the currencies with the most appreciation room.
• MXN / BRL: RBC's August currency report card covers rupee/real/peso relative strength, but no fresh EM-level quotes published after 2026-09-20 were captured today — check daily EM fixings for updated levels.

Strategist Takes

• Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX strategy at Citi: "We are dollar bulls in a world of dollar bears right now" — Tobon sees the dollar strengthening through at least Q3, mostly against the euro, Canadian dollar and sterling. (Cited from Reuters coverage.)
• Claudia Sahm (investing.com analyst, former Fed economist): after the September 16 hike, five questions the Fed Chair's press conference left unanswered — a reminder that the Fed's guidance remains permissive for dollar upside surprises.
• EUR/USD weekly context: the euro's -0.63% weekly move and -2.34% YTD show the market still pricing Fed hawkishness against a softening euro-area narrative; watch German political headlines as an added EUR/CAD cross-risk.

What to Watch Next

• SNB commentary — the franc is in focus after USD/CHF's failed push to 0.8263; any change in stance reprices USD/CHF directly. (this week)
• US-China trade/AI pact developments — Treasury Secretary Bessent's proposal to President Trump could shift CNY and risk sentiment. (this week)
• Middle East diplomacy — Iran mediation progress via Pakistan is a live risk-sentiment catalyst for JPY, CHF and gold-linked flows. (next sessions)
• Fed speaker schedule post-rate-hike — with Sahm flagging unanswered questions from the Chair, upcoming Fed commentary is the highest-leverage repricing risk for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. (ongoing)

Reader Action Items

• USD/JPY at 157.55 (+1.57% weekly): the policy-gap trade is working; watch for any BOJ intervention rhetoric near round levels as downside risk to carry positions.
• EUR/USD 1.1460–1.1480 range: hawkish Fed tone caps rallies — a break below 1.1460 would confirm dollar bulls; the pair is -2.34% YTD, so positioning remains crowded short-dollar-euro.
• USD/CHF pullback: after last week's multi-year high at 0.8263, the franc's bounce may extend on SNB news — a candidate for mean-reversion traders, but wait for clarity on SNB guidance.