Global Trade Weekly — 2026-03-22

Top Story

U.S. Launches Trade Probes Against Six Major Partners, Rebuilding Tariff Pressure

The Trump administration this week launched the first of what are expected to be multiple sweeping unfair-trade investigations targeting China, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the probes could lead to new tariffs against all six trading partners by this summer, according to Reuters.

The investigations are a direct consequence of the U.S. Supreme Court's 6–3 ruling that struck down tariffs the White House had imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Rather than conceding ground on trade leverage, the administration pivoted quickly to alternative statutory authorities. Bloomberg described it as the administration starting "the first of several sweeping trade investigations that set the stage for new tariffs, the centerpiece of a push to replace levies struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court."

The PIIE (Peterson Institute for International Economics) this week published an analysis asking whether the administration's new legal approach would survive judicial scrutiny, noting that the Supreme Court had recently reaffirmed that presidents cannot impose taxes on citizens without congressional authorization, with Justice Neil Gorsuch writing particularly pointedly on this issue. The Atlantic Council, writing just ahead of our coverage window, argued that the White House retains ample statutory tools — beyond IEEPA — to maintain trade leverage in ongoing bilateral negotiations.

Policy & Tariff Tracker

• United States (vs. China, EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico): The USTR opened formal unfair-trade investigations against all six partners this week. USTR Greer stated the probes could result in new tariffs imposed by summer 2026. The investigations are designed to rebuild tariff pressure using statutory authority other than IEEPA, which the Supreme Court struck down. Affected sectors span the full spectrum of bilateral trade, with technology, manufacturing, and agriculture all expected to be in scope.

• United States (household impact): The Tax Foundation's updated tracker, published this week, finds that the cumulative 2026 Trump tariff regime amounts to an average tax increase of $700 per U.S. household — and has not meaningfully reduced the U.S. trade deficit despite the administration's stated goals.

• United Kingdom: The UK House of Commons Library published a fresh research briefing (within the past 24 hours) confirming that U.S. tariffs now apply to most UK goods imported into the United States. The briefing examines how the existing UK-U.S. bilateral deal may partially mitigate the tariff burden and what further negotiations could look like.

Trade Deals & Negotiations

• U.S. Bilateral Deals (Status: Ongoing / Under Pressure): The Council on Foreign Relations updated its tracker of Trump administration trade deals this week, noting that the White House is pressing forward with bilateral negotiations despite the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling. Senior U.S. officials, including USTR Greer, have stated that deals previously negotiated with partners — including understandings with China and the EU — remain on track. The CFR tracker documents how the administration is attempting to rewrite trade rules "one deal at a time."

• U.S. vs. China — Tariff Probe (Status: Investigation Launched): The new Section 301-style investigation launched this week against China is the most consequential pending action. Reuters reported that China's export hubs have reacted with a mix of scrambling and skepticism following news of the tariff reprieve discussions and renewed probe. A horizontal bar chart published by Reuters shows China facing a -7.14 percentage point change in effective tariff rates compared to select countries that received reductions, underscoring the asymmetry in current U.S. trade policy.

Economic Impact

Middle East War Disrupts Global Oil and Supply Chains

• Global oil supply — record disruption: The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned this week that the world faces the largest-ever oil supply disruption as a result of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Middle East Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day (bpd). The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil trade — has rattled commodity markets and threatened sectors from metals to agriculture that depend on shipping through the region.

• Asia-Pacific supply chains under strain: A UN News report published this week (March 19) describes how the Middle East conflict's fallout is "rippling far beyond the Gulf, disrupting fuel supplies, shipping routes and supply chains across Asia and the Pacific." Some of the region's most vulnerable economies are already experiencing rising prices, rationing, and threats to food security. The WTO, cited by the South Asian Herald, flagged that South Asia's trade outlook is coming under particular pressure, with energy and fertilizer costs surging and supply routes disrupted — even as global trade volumes receive a modest boost from AI-driven demand.

• Maersk on supply chain impact: Maersk Chief Commercial Officer Karsten Kildahl, speaking at a recent industry event, discussed the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict across global supply chains. Maersk published its analysis on March 13, noting systemic risks to containerized shipping.

1 sources

reuters.com

reuters.com

Expert Analysis

PIIE: Five Takeaways from U.S.-China Trade in 2025

The Peterson Institute for International Economics published a major analytical piece this week examining what U.S. import data from 2025 reveals about the Trump-China trade war. PIIE described the dynamic as a race "between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in 2025 [over] who could stop U.S. imports from China the fastest." Key findings include:

• Trump raised tariffs on China by 145 percentage points early in his second term.
• The resulting import collapse was dramatic, with U.S. imports from China falling sharply across multiple product categories.
• The data shows the tariffs reshaped — but did not eliminate — U.S.-China trade flows, with some import substitution occurring and other goods continuing to flow through third countries.

PIIE's analysis underscores that the new round of trade investigations launched this week against China (and five other partners) is not occurring in a vacuum — it follows a year in which high tariffs demonstrably altered trade patterns, even if the trade deficit did not narrow as the administration hoped.

Tax Foundation: Tariff Cost to Households

The Tax Foundation's updated tariff tracker, published this week, provides a stark consumer-level accounting: the current Trump tariff regime costs the average U.S. household $700 per year in higher prices. The tracker also notes the tariffs have not meaningfully altered the trade deficit — a core stated policy objective.

What to Watch Next Week

• New tariff probe timelines: USTR Greer indicated the six new unfair-trade investigations (China, EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico) will move quickly. Watch for publication of formal investigation notices in the Federal Register and any early signals on scope or sector targeting — particularly for semiconductors, EVs, and steel.

• Middle East oil markets: With the IEA warning of the largest-ever supply disruption, energy markets will be closely tracking any developments around the Strait of Hormuz and potential diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. Brent crude price movements and OPEC+ emergency discussions (if any are called) will be key indicators.

• UK-U.S. trade negotiations: Following the House of Commons Library briefing confirming U.S. tariffs on most UK goods, watch for any announcements from London or Washington on bilateral trade talks aimed at securing carve-outs or a broader deal framework.

• WTO trade volume data: The WTO has flagged that global trade volumes are receiving a boost from AI-driven demand even as the Middle East conflict creates headwinds. Watch for updated WTO forecasts and any formal dispute filings related to the newly launched U.S. trade investigations.