Global Trade Weekly — 2026-07-07

Top Stories

US Forced-Labor Tariff Hearings Launch Against 60 Nations

The Trump administration has initiated public hearings on potential tariffs up to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries, citing forced-labor concerns under Section 301 investigation. India, a major exporter, submitted its case to US trade officials rejecting allegations. Hearings began as of July 7, 2026, with the administration determining these nations failed to curb forced-labor trade.

US-EU Trade Deal Takes Effect: Auto Tariffs Drop to 15%

The US-EU trade agreement officially went live on July 1, 2026, implementing an all-inclusive 15% US tariff on most EU goods with no stacking on Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates. Notably, automotive tariffs fell from 27.5% to 15%, while steel remained at 50%. The deal marks a major shift from earlier reciprocal tariffs and provides immediate clarity for EU importers.

Trump Administration Declines USMCA Renewal, Signals 10-Year Wind-Down

The Trump administration announced it will not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in its current form, triggering a 10-year phase-out clock. This development raises critical questions about the future of trilateral North American trade relations and signals potential major changes to regional commerce.

2 sources

whitehouse.gov

whitehouse.gov

whitehouse.gov

whitehouse.gov

Tariff & Sanctions Tracker

• United States → 60 economies: Forced-labor tariffs up to 12.5% proposed; hearings underway as of July 7, 2026

• United States → European Union: All-inclusive 15% tariff on most EU goods (effective July 1, 2026); automotive tariffs reduced from 27.5% to 15%; steel tariffs remain at 50%

• United States → Mexico, Canada: USMCA non-renewal announced; 10-year wind-down phase begins

1 sources

tariffstool.com

tariffstool.com

By the Numbers

• 60 countries face potential forced-labor tariffs of up to 12.5% under US Section 301 investigation, with formal hearings underway as of July 2026

• 15% is the new all-inclusive US tariff rate on most EU goods effective July 1, 2026, replacing previous reciprocal rates

• 27.5% → 15% automotive tariff reduction under the US-EU deal, the largest sectoral decline in the agreement

Regional Spotlight

Emerging Markets Accelerate Trade Deals Outside US Framework

Brazil completed ratification of Mercosur's free-trade agreements with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and Singapore as of July 6, 2026, reinforcing its strategy to expand market access for Brazilian products independent of US negotiations. Simultaneously, Indonesia began preparatory discussions for accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), with Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto confirming the effort. These moves signal that emerging economies—particularly in South America and Southeast Asia—are pivoting toward regional and non-US trade frameworks amid protectionist pressures from Washington. The RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), encompassing 16 Asia-Pacific nations including China, Japan, and Australia, continues to deepen supply chain integration outside the traditional US-led trade order.

What to Watch Next Week

• Forced-labor tariff decision window: US USTR likely to announce preliminary or final tariff determinations on the 60-nation Section 301 investigation within weeks, with major impact on Indian exporters and Asian supply chains.

• CPTPP accession momentum: Indonesia's formal application timeline and potential ratification votes by incumbent CPTPP members could accelerate Southeast Asian realignment away from US trade orbit.

• EU-Malaysia FTA negotiations: EU is targeting finalization of a Malaysia free-trade agreement in 2026–2027, part of broader EU pivot to Southeast Asia as alternative to US engagement.