Global Trade Weekly — 2026-04-23
Trump's China tariff strategy is showing signs of stalling, with Reuters reporting on April 21 that the sweeping tariff-based reset of U.S.-China relations has drifted without a clear resolution despite aggressive early promises. Meanwhile, the U.S. tariff refund system for $166 billion in court-struck-down levies officially launched on April 20, adding a new operational dimension to the ongoing trade policy upheaval.
Global Trade Weekly — 2026-04-23
Top Stories
1. Trump's China Tariff Policy Loses Momentum
The ambitious tariff-driven reset of U.S.-China trade relations — a centerpiece of Trump's return to power in 2025 — has stalled. According to Reuters, despite sweeping promises to use tariffs to rebalance the trade relationship, the administration's China strategy now appears to be drifting without a clear path forward. Conflicting policy signals and the absence of substantive negotiation breakthroughs have left markets and businesses in prolonged uncertainty.
The drift has major implications for global supply chains. Businesses that had hoped for clarity on whether the tariff standoff with China would escalate or de-escalate are now navigating an indefinite holding pattern.
2. U.S. Opens $166 Billion Tariff Refund Portal
The Trump administration formally launched its tariff refund system on April 20, 2026, opening the door for American importers to reclaim approximately $166 billion in tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down in February as unlawful. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced the rollout of CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) Phase 1, marking the beginning of the IEEPA tariff refund process.
Companies are now racing to file claims. The scale of potential refunds — $166 billion — represents one of the largest single tariff reversal events in U.S. trade history, affecting importers across virtually every sector of the economy.
3. U.S. Trade Representative Tells Mexico: Tariffs Are Here to Stay
In a significant signal for North American trade relations, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has privately told Mexican auto and steel industry representatives that they should not expect the upcoming renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to roll back Trump's existing tariffs on their sectors. Four industry sources familiar with the discussions confirmed the message to Reuters.
The statement is a blow to Mexican industry groups that had hoped USMCA renegotiations — scheduled to begin in earnest — would offer leverage to remove or reduce the steel and auto tariffs. With USTR Greer ruling out relief through the USMCA process, Mexico's exporters face a prolonged period of elevated costs in their primary export market.
Tariff & Sanctions Tracker
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United States | All IEEPA-covered imports | Tariff refund process begins | Effective: April 20, 2026 — CBP launched the CAPE Phase 1 system, enabling importers to begin filing for refunds on tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. The $166 billion in refunds represent IEEPA-based levies ruled unlawful.
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United States → Mexico | Steel & Automotive sectors | Trump tariffs confirmed as permanent fixture | Status: Ongoing — USTR Greer told Mexican industry representatives that tariffs on steel and autos will not be removed through USMCA renegotiation, effectively cementing their status as a structural cost for cross-border trade.
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United States | Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) | Proposed modifications under public comment | Published: April 21, 2026 — The U.S. International Trade Commission published proposed modifications to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule in the Federal Register, seeking comments from federal agencies and the public. The changes would conform the HTS to internationally recommended amendments.
By the Numbers
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$166 billion — The total value of tariff refunds now available to U.S. importers following the Supreme Court's February ruling that IEEPA-based tariffs were unlawful. The CAPE Phase 1 refund portal opened April 20.
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$700 — Estimated average tariff cost increase per U.S. household stemming from the current Trump tariff regime, according to Tax Foundation analysis. The tariffs have not meaningfully altered the overall trade deficit, the analysis found.
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>25% — EU exports to the United States dropped by more than a quarter for a second consecutive month in February 2026, per Reuters, as U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on European trade flows. The EU trade surplus with the U.S. has shrunk by approximately 60% from peak levels. (Note: Data from Reuters report published April 17; included as the most recent available trade flow statistic.)
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7%+ — Intra-ASEAN trade grew by more than 7% in 2024 after a decline in 2023, according to the World Economic Forum, underscoring how regional trade frameworks like RCEP are gaining ground as U.S. tariffs disrupt traditional trade patterns.
Regional Spotlight
Vietnam & Southeast Asia: The Unintended Beneficiaries of Trump's Tariff War
One year on from "Liberation Day," Bloomberg's supply chain analysis reveals that Trump's tariffs have fueled a dramatic reshaping of global supply chains — but not necessarily in the direction Washington intended.
Vietnam and other Southeast Asian economies have emerged as major winners, absorbing manufacturing capacity and trade flows diverted from China. Rather than returning production to U.S. shores, companies have rerouted supply chains through third countries — a dynamic that trade economists call "tariff shopping." This matters globally because it means:
- Tariff revenue targets are being missed — goods still flow to the U.S., just via different origin points.
- ASEAN economies are gaining leverage — countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia now have more bargaining power in trade negotiations with both the U.S. and China.
- RCEP's relevance is rising — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which links 15 Asia-Pacific economies including China, Japan, South Korea, and all ASEAN members, is quietly deepening supply chain integration at a moment when U.S. trade policy is pushing manufacturers to diversify away from China but not necessarily back to America.
Intra-ASEAN trade grew more than 7% in 2024, and RCEP's framework is projected to lift 27 million additional people into middle-class status by 2035 if current trajectories hold — a counternarrative to the trade war's disruptive effects.
What to Watch Next Week
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IEEPA Tariff Refund Claims (Rolling — begins April 20) — With CBP's CAPE Phase 1 portal now live, the first wave of refund applications from U.S. importers will begin arriving. Watch for announcements from major importers on the scale of claims filed and any procedural bottlenecks.
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USMCA Renegotiation Signaling — USTR Greer's message to Mexico that tariffs will remain creates a politically charged backdrop for any formal USMCA renegotiation sessions. Watch for official statements from Mexico's trade ministry and reaction from Canadian counterparts, who face similar uncertainty.
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U.S.-China Trade Talks Gauge — With Reuters confirming that Trump's China tariff policy is "drifting," any White House statements or diplomatic contacts between U.S. and Chinese trade officials will be closely watched as a signal of whether talks are imminent or further delayed.
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HTS Modification Public Comment Deadline — The Federal Register published proposed Harmonized Tariff Schedule modifications on April 21. Stakeholders — including importers, exporters, and industry associations — will have a limited window to file comments before the changes are finalized. Businesses affected by HTS reclassifications should monitor the docket closely.
This content was collected, curated, and summarized entirely by AI — including how and what to gather. It may contain inaccuracies. Crew does not guarantee the accuracy of any information presented here. Always verify facts on your own before acting on them. Crew assumes no legal liability for any consequences arising from reliance on this content.
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