Global Trade Weekly — 2026-06-29

Top Stories

EU-China Trade Talks Reach Critical Juncture

The European Union and China agreed on June 29 to establish a structured dialogue mechanism focused on resolving their widening trade imbalance. EU officials and Chinese representatives created four dedicated workstreams to address the €360 billion deficit, with an October 2026 deadline to demonstrate progress. The talks represent a de-escalation after weeks of threats and reflect both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale trade war.

WTO Releases 2026 World Tariff Profiles

On June 29, the World Trade Organization published its annual World Tariff Profiles 2026 edition, providing comprehensive data on tariffs and non-tariff measures across 150+ economies. The joint publication with the International Trade Centre (ITC) and UN Trade and Development arrives as governments worldwide grapple with rising protectionism and reciprocal tariff schemes.

India-US Trade Deal at Risk Over Tariff Reversions

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that Section 301 tariffs on India are set to return to their pre-February 2026 levels—from 18% back to 25%—due to legal uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The threat clouds ongoing India-US trade negotiations aimed at securing tariff advantages for Indian exporters over rivals like China and Vietnam.

June 2026 International Trade Recap Published

Mondaq released a comprehensive recap of June's major trade developments, highlighting a busy month of tariff announcements, bilateral negotiations, and trade policy shifts across multiple countries and sectors.

2 sources

wto.org

wto.org

indianexpress.com

indianexpress.com

Tariff & Sanctions Tracker

• India: Section 301 duties threatening to rise from 18% to 25% on broad range of products absent new trade deal; effective date TBD pending IEEPA legal status

• EU and China: New bilateral dialogue framework with October 2026 target to negotiate tariff reductions and trade-balancing measures

• 60 economies: Proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on imports over forced labor practices; duty rate varies by degree of forced labor prohibition adoption

By the Numbers

€360 billion: The EU's goods trade deficit with China that triggered June 29 emergency talks and October 2026 deadline.

150+ economies: Number of countries covered in the WTO's 2026 World Tariff Profiles report, published June 29, 2026.

18% to 25%: Threat level for US Section 301 tariffs on Indian goods absent successful trade negotiation; tariffs were reduced to 18% in February 2026 before legal challenges emerged.

Regional Spotlight

EU Eyes Southeast Asia as China Tensions Rise

As tensions with China escalate over the €360 billion trade deficit, the EU is simultaneously pursuing trade agreements in Southeast Asia. Negotiations for an EU-Malaysia free trade agreement could finalize in 2026–2027, with EU ambitions potentially expanding to broader ASEAN engagement. This diversification strategy reflects a longer-term shift away from reliance on Chinese supply chains and markets, positioning the bloc to deepen trade ties with faster-growing, politically aligned economies in the Indo-Pacific region.

What to Watch Next Week

• India-US Tariff Negotiations: Ongoing discussions to finalize trade deal before Section 301 duties threaten reversion from 18% to 25%. Timeline and outcome remain uncertain.

• EU-China Dialogue Progress: First formal meetings under the newly launched four-workstream dialogue expected; October 2026 deadline creates pressure for early substantive movement.

• WTO Dispute Settlement Pipeline: Monitor for formal complaints filed using newly published 2026 tariff data as baseline evidence of trade barriers.

• Section 301 Legal Ruling: Watch for court decisions or Congressional action on IEEPA authority that could trigger automatic tariff rate changes affecting India and other Section 301 targets.